College Football Picks, Predictions: Week 3 Expert Bets for LSU vs Ole Miss, Georgia vs Arkansas, More
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Welcome to Week 3.
The college football world has been waiting for this week since the end of last season, when former Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin bolted for LSU during the Rebels’ College Football Playoff run.
Now, Kiffin is set to return to Oxford as the most hated man in Mississippi.
But that’s not all. We also have another SEC matchup between the Georgia Bulldogs and Arkansas Razorbacks, as well as a Big Ten battle between the USC Trojans and Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
I broke down all three games and came through with at least one pick for each.
With that said, let’s dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the games on Saturday, September 19.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week’s games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The Bulldogs have cruised through non-conference play. This is a different look from a top-ranked team that doesn’t always cover in games outside of the SEC.
Head coach Kirby Smart beat Austin Peay 28-6 last season, replicating previous sluggish performances in other years against Kent State or UT Martin.
This season, Georgia has beaten Tennessee State and Western Kentucky by a combined score of 133-23. The Bulldogs are elite in the advanced statistical numbers on offense, starting with a rush attack that has one of the highest EPA numbers .
Georgia is ranked as the best run blocking offensive line, per PFF. The domination continues in protection of quarterback Gunner Stockton, who hasn’t had a sack through eight quarters of play.
In addition, defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has had an easier start to the season with his nickel defense.
The Bulldogs have dominated rush attacks using man and inside zone blocking schemes. Georgia is a top-25 team in tackles for loss, but a top-five coverage grade suggests opponent passing has also been a struggle. Corner Ellis Robinson IV leads the team in pass breakups.
The most important statistic from the early numbers are the missed tackles (just nine through two games), showing that this defense has high-level fundamentals.
The season has started on the wrong foot for new head coach Ryan Silverfield.
Severe struggles on the offensive side of the ball have drawn plenty of criticism, as the Razorbacks averaged less than five yards per play against North Alabama and posted one of the worst rushing success rate numbers against Utah.
The Razorbacks are 116th in run blocking while allowing 12 tackles for loss through two games.
The biggest criticism has come on quarterback KJ Jackson. The junior has an average depth of target at seven yards, with a time to throw aspect of 2.8 seconds. Jackson has seen 20 pressures in 78 drop backs, a combination that’s stalled field position and scoring for the Hogs.
On the other side of the ball, there have been struggles for defensive coordinator Ron Roberts. The 3-3-5 scheme is near-last in creating a pass rush and in finishing drives.
North Alabama and Utah crossed the Arkansas 40-yard line a combined 11 times, and the Razorbacks have allowed 5.1 points to opponents in scoring position .
The Hogs have yet to record a pass breakup. The bright point of the defense has been edge Charlie Collins, who’s already produced four pressures despite missing three tackles in run defense snaps.
The Bulldogs are headed to Fayetteville for an 11 a.m. central kickoff (also known as the Jefferson Pilot time slot for old school SEC folks) as 24-point favorites. There’s no advantage for the Bulldogs numbers-wise, as The Action Network projects Georgia -21 in comparison to SP+ at -25.
Smart will have the advantage with every unit that lines up on the field, but Georgia has struggled in its first road conference game over the past three seasons. The Bulldogs won in their first SEC road game against Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee by a cumulative margin of 11 points .
However, Smart may have an axe to grind with Silverfield because of previous comments made.
Smart deflected the question during his weekly press conference, remarking about the Silverfield apology in Tampa earlier this year saying “much to do about nothing.”
There’s certainly potential that Georgia will start slow on the road in its first SEC game — similar to the previous three seasons — but the comments made by Silverfield may draw Georgia to play a full four-quarter game no matter the score.
While Arkansas continues to search for answers in regards to a failed offense with no EPA or a defense that is 94th in Havoc, Georgia could lean into its running game alone to cover the spread.
Pick: Georgia -24.5 or Better
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Head coach Lincoln Riley was clear in a Monday press conference that the youth of his roster is directly correlated with the average number of penalties. The Trojans rang up eight flags for 78 yards in their latest victory against Louisiana.
The Trojans only covered once in three non-conference games against Group of Six teams, and now it has a cross-country travel spot on their hands.
The road has been unkind to Riley since Big Ten expansion, losing four of the last five games when crossing at least two time zones. The lone victory came early in 2025 against a struggling Purdue team, and USC failed to cover that spot.
USC is led by senior Jayden Maiava, who’s in his third season under Riley. The quarterback already has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with an offensive line that has allowed just 12 pressures.
Maiava is lacking in big-time throw rate through three games, as it’s currently half of his 2025 number at 3.4%.
The new components to the offense this season are the faces in the wide receiver room, as Maiava’s top three targets are all in their freshman seasons.
Slot Trent Mosley, along with wideouts Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Mark Bowman, have collected 45 targets for eight touchdowns thus far. Mosley has been elite, with 13 catches and a yards per route run greater than four. He also provides scores on special teams .
New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson has improved and regressed in a number of areas for the Trojans. USC currently grades as the 19th-best tackling team in FBS, missing just 21 tackles through three games.
However, the Trojans have struggled against the pass, ranking 111th in success rate. Explosives have been allowed on numerous opponent drives, as both Louisiana and San Jose State doubled the national average in explosive drives.
The defense has also found a dry spell in Havoc, ranking 73rd in tackles for loss per game while recording just a single pass breakup .
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images. Pictured: USC QB Jayden Maiava.No power-four team has had a tougher start than Rutgers. Head coach Greg Schiano communicated at Big Ten Media Days that the defense falls on his shoulders, but two losses through two games suggest there’s been no progress.
The Scarlett Knights notched a 0% post-game win expectancy in a loss to UMass and 26% in a loss to Boston College .
AJ Surace took over for Dylan Lonergan at quarterback against Boston College, committing four interceptions along with four turnover-worthy plays.
The offense ranks near-last in Havoc allowed, a metric that gathers tackles for loss, interceptions and fumbles. When the Scarlet Knights have produced a scoring drive, the average points are also near-last of any FBS teams.
Rutgers has crossed the opponent 40-yard line 11 times this season, averaging just 2.5 points per trip.
There’s been no improvement on defense, with the team ranking outside the top 100 in every advanced statistical category. The Scarlet Knights are near-last in both Havoc and opponent quality drives, ranking 117th or worse in rush and pass EPA allowed.
Third downs have been a contributor to the losses, as they’re ranked 121st in both conversion rate and average distance to gain.
The three leading tacklers on the team are all in the secondary, as Latrell Noel, Bradlee Jones and Jesse Ofurie each have 10 through two games.
USC has had a treacherous time traveling East in Big Ten play, but the defensive nature of both these teams suggests that there will be no lack of points.
Maiava has dominated every coverage look with a trio of freshman wide receivers. That’s an element that should play against a Rutgers defense that’s bottom 20 in pass explosives allowed.
The Trojans are 28th in finishing drives, and Rutgers’ bottom-25 opponent finishing drives rank suggests USC is in for touchdowns, not field goals.
The bigger question is Rutgers ‘ability to score to contribute to a total or potentially cover the spread. The Action Network Power Ratings list USC as a 24.5-point favorite, in line with the current market.
The number that needs investment comes on the total, as early projections based on scoring, tempo and EPA suggest this game lands in the 60s.
Surprisingly, Rutgers is 20th in pass EPA. Surace has had success throwing over 20 yards, generating a touchdown and two big-time throws .
Expect Rutgers to let Surace air the ball out once a Trojans lead gets over two scores.
While there’s no expectation that Rutgers’ poor tackling and coverage defense can stop USC, the Scarlet Knights will have a few scores of their own against a Patterson defense that ranks outside the top 100 in opponent passing success rate.
Pick: Over 59.5 or Better
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The Lane Kiffin era in Baton Rouge has started with a bang. The Tigers have toppled Clemson and Louisiana Tech by a combined score of 96-24.
The rushing attack of running back Dilin Jones and quarterback Sam Leavitt has been lethal.
Jones has forced 13 missed tackles while averaging more than four yards after first contact. Leavitt has produced an even split of scramble and designed runs with 169 rushing yards through two games.
More importantly, Leavitt has been the bell cow in scoring position with five rushing touchdowns.
Leavitt’s role on the ground could come from his four interceptions this season, three of which have come on non-blitz downs by the opposing defense.
Surprisingly, the LSU offensive line has allowed 23 pressures on the season, while the receiving targets have dropped six balls. Those drops belong to six different players. Leavitt’s integration under center is still in process as he gets to know his receivers.
Slot Winston Watkins Jr. leads in targets, while Trey’Dez Green leads in yards per route run.
The MVP of the LSU team belongs to the defense heading into Ole Miss. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker retained his position with the Kiffin hire and now calls plays for a defense that ranks as the top coverage unit in FBS.
The Tigers also own top-10 ranks in Havoc, Success Rate allowed and Quality Drives allowed. LSU has allowed only six opponent drives to cross the 40-yard line this season, giving up less than three points per trip.
Ole Miss transfer EDGE Princewill Umanmielen has been a one-man Havoc crew with 10 pressures and five sacks.
Head coach Pete Golding started off the 2026 season with a signature victory over Louisville and a blowout of Charlotte.
Ole Miss pulled a low 33% post-game win expectancy against the Cardinals in losing the yards-per-play battle, but eight of its 13 offensive possessions contained two or more first downs, while its execution in scoring position determined the winner.
The biggest issue in the Rebels’ season debut came with the defense.
Louisville torched Ole Miss in the secondary, as Lincoln Kienholz connected on seven passes that went over 20 yards. Golding and his co-defensive coordinators, Bryan Brown and Patrick Toney, have plenty of data points to correct before LSU.
The Rebels missed 25 tackles against Louisville, followed by another 10 against Charlotte. Ole Miss ranks 132nd in PFF tackle grading, a number that coincides with a coverage grade rank of 129th.
Safety Edwin Joseph and cornerback Dante Core have allowed 6-of-7 targets to be caught with an average yards per reception in the double digits.
Ole Miss will depend on its offense, primarily Heisman Trophy contender Trinidad Chambliss. The quarterback has connected on 70% of passing attempts thus far, maintaining a low turnover-worthy play rate below 2.8%.
The running game will be at full strength for LSU after an injury removed Kewan Lacy from the Louisville game. Lacy returned against Charlotte, gaining 87 yards on 13 rushing attempts while forcing eight missed tackles.
Ole Miss finds itself at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball.
Leavitt will be throwing against a Rebels secondary that has given up nine passes of 20 yards or more with 35 missed tackles. Despite throwing four interceptions through two games, Leavitt also has three big-time throws to just a single turnover-worthy play.
The alarming number from the Louisiana Tech box score was 15 pressures, but Ole Miss will attack Leavitt with a pass rush that grades out at 111th, per PFF.
If the Tigers can resolve the highest drop rate of Leavitt’s career at 12.8% within the receiver room, LSU should find plenty of explosives through the passing game.
Chambliss will have a much tougher time with execution, as Umanmielen returns to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss ranks mid-FBS in Havoc allowed, so the LSU defensive line will be playing behind the line of scrimmage.
The Rebels have had issues controlling the line of scrimmage with the rushing attack, ranking outside the top 75 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Tigers have missed only half of the tackles compared to the Rebels, suggesting that Lacy and Chambliss will see a decrease in yards after first contact.
Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for LSU to be favored by six points.
With a dozen analytical categories suggesting the Tigers’ defense will have firm control against the Rebels’ offense, the game will come down to Leavitt creating explosives against the Ole Miss secondary.
The LSU quarterback already has five rushing touchdowns on the season, an area Kienholz where logged a touchdown against the Ole Miss defense.
Picks:
- LSU -3 or Better
- Ole Miss Team Total Under 28.5
- Sam Leavitt Anytime TD
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