College Football Playoff expansion in near. Who are the winners and losers?

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Front and center in the debates leading into the four- and 12-team College Football Playoff models was an overarching concern over how the new postseason formats would diminish the quality and importance of what some consider the best regular season in American sports. 

By and large, those fears have been unfounded.

While the 12-team format has allowed for at-large teams to make the playoff with two or three losses, the regular season has remained competitive and a vital part of what makes college football unique. 

At a minimum, however, the 24-team format that is nearing official confirmation will drastically reshape virtually every aspect of an individual season from the opening weekend through the national championship game.

Scheduled to begin next season, the format will likely feature 23 at-large teams, requiring at least one spot for every Power Four conference, and at minimum one team from the Group of Six. Conference championship games are expected to be eliminated.

Playoff expansion isn't the only one change coming in the 2027 campaign. The season is likely to begin in full during Week 0 instead of the current trickle of games that weekend, allowing teams to have multiple byes during their schedule.

This expanded bracket could deliver millions in additional funding to Bowl Subdivision schools. The new playoff could also deliver on a continued fear: that college football is sacrificing the regular season by focusing on the postseason.

The Big Ten, the regular season and the SEC lead the biggest winners and losers from a 24-team playoff model:

Winners

The Big Ten

The conference got its way in this debate. The Big Ten has been the loudest and most-powerful voice pushing for the shift to 24 teams, pounding the drum even as the SEC pushed back and offered a 16-team plan. As it turns out, the conference wins on the field and off. It’s not a total victory, though. While the broadened field will help the Big Ten place more teams in the playoff, the SEC is likely to see an immediate boost in participation given the perception that it is deeper and more competitive overall.

Coaching job security

Making it easier to make the playoff will increase the job security of a significant group of Power Four head coaches. This is especially true for coaches at programs that are consistently successful but haven’t completely broken through — think James Franklin at Penn State or former Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst. This does cut both ways, however. Yes, the very upper crust of the Power Four will have an easier path to making the playoff. But with three losses or maybe four the likely cutoff point for a playoff berth, coaches that have borderline-successful seasons — let’s say going 8-4 in a major conference — would come under increased scrutiny for falling short of the tournament. And down the line, standards for success may shift from simply making the playoff to advancing deep into the playoff.

Non-conference games

As part of expansion, the Big Ten is expected require each team play another Power Four opponent during non-conference play. By and large, the workaround for the Big Ten and SEC would be to schedule games against the Big 12 and ACC. But the Big Ten’s requirement will still improve the overall quality of play in non-conference action and potentially influence all Power Four teams to schedule up in September to secure the type of win that could mean the difference when comparing a slew of teams with identical records.

Postseason parity

Eighty different teams would have made at least one playoff appearance if the 24-team model had gone into effect in 2014, according to the Big Ten. Even if this isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison — the selection committee might’ve ranked teams differently had 24 spots been at stake and not four or 12 — the expanded format will at least open the door for more randomness in the Power Four, giving clearer paths to the tournament for teams like North Carolina State, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State.

Losers

The regular season

There’s always the chance that the 24-team format doesn’t do as much damage to the regular season as expected. After all, those concerns largely have not come to fruition in the 12-team bracket. But this is where expansion will come in: With the baseline for playoff contention likely knocked from two to three losses, there will be less drama over individual games and matchups. After all, there’s less on the line when a team can lose a November game or two, for example, and still be in line to earn an at-large berth. Like an overstretched rubber band, the regular season will lose and never recover its previous form.

Bowl games

While the opening round is likely to be played on the home field of the higher-ranked team, some bowl games could be folded into the playoff beginning with round of 16. That would be double the number of bowl games included in the 12-team format; those games begin in the round of eight and then continue in the semifinals. Which bowl games are added to the playoff isn’t known; there may even be a rotating cast of games. But their inclusion further diminishes the traditional bowl season by putting non-playoff teams into less and less historically meaningful bowl destinations. A watered-down Citrus Bowl or Pop-Tarts Bowl might still have viability but it will be choosing from teams outside the Top 25.

College football fans

Going to 24 teams has been extremely unpopular among fans who had resoundingly supported the 12-team format. There might be a simple reason for the lack of enthusiasm: Fans like the 12-team method and simply aren’t sure why something that works needs to be redone. Fans also like bowl games. Last year’s Citrus Bowl between Texas and Michigan peaked at 15 million viewers and was the most-watched non-playoff game since the 2019 season. While a weaker matchup and airing on basic cable, the first-round playoff game between Oregon and James Madison averaged 4.4 million viewers, less than the average viewership for seven traditional bowl games.

Conference championship games

Conference championship games will be eliminated in the 24-team model. For decades, these games have dictated the national championship and served as a last-second eliminator for teams on the brink of being among the final two, four or 12 contenders still standing entering the postseason. They’ve also included some of the most memorable moments in recent history, including the 2012 and 2018 SEC championship games between Alabama and Georgia, the 1994 SEC championship between the Crimson Tide and Florida, and the 2009 Big 12 championship between Nebraska and Texas. This is a loss for the sport.

The Group of Six

Teams from the Group of Six were guaranteed one spot in the 12-team format and even delivered two teams last season in Tulane and James Madison. Despite adding double the teams to the format, the 24-team format still ensures just one spot for the Group of Six. Last season showed how the bloc could still place multiple teams in the field; this year, for example, No. 24 Boise State, unbeaten James Madison and one-loss New Mexico could end up with legitimate playoff résumés. But the history of the playoff going back to its debut in 2014 has shown how the selection committee is far more likely to reward a two- or three-loss Power Four team over a one-loss or even unbeaten Group of Six contender.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College Football Playoff expansion in near. Who are the winners and losers?

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