College Football Playoff odds entering Week 4: Texas begins gauntlet
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Arch Manning‘s Heisman hopes are about to face their biggest test yet. Texas football‘s upcoming schedule is absolutely brutal, and the NFL prospect needs to show his worth starting this weekend.
The 2026 college football season enters Week 4 with a monster slate of games. That includes six matchups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25, headlined by the top-ranked Longhorns traveling to No. 14 Tennessee.
ESPN dropped its latest odds for this season’s College Football Playoff, featuring the 20 schools with the best chances of reaching the 12-team postseason field. Manning and Texas hold an 85 percent chance of qualifying, while Notre Dame and Miami are close behind.
Meanwhile, Lane Kiffin and LSU football are on life support after their massive loss in Oxford against Ole Miss. Here’s the current CFP landscape as the college football season shifts to Week 4.
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Longhorns can’t afford Week 4 slip-up
Saturday shook up the College Football Playoff picture in a BIG way 👀
Biggest drops 📉
Texas A&M: -36%
LSU: -22%Biggest jump 📈
Ole Miss: +21% pic.twitter.com/Ui8WkFDFYX— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 22, 2026
Manning and Texas already have the country watching closely after their epic win against Ohio State. However, the Longhorns enter a stretch of games littered with top 25 opponents.
Texas plays ranked teams in six of its next seven matchups, including Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The SEC team’s schedule also features Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M, making it one of the toughest regular season slates a school has ever faced.
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Current CFP top 12 odds, per ESPN
- Texas Longhorns – 85%
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 81%
- Miami Hurricanes – 78%
- Georgia Bulldogs – 75%
- Ohio State Buckeyes – 68%
- Indiana Hoosiers – 64%
- Alabama Crimson Tide – 58%
- Texas Tech Red Raiders – 43%
- Ole Miss Rebels – 40%
- Penn State Nittany Lions – 37%
- Utah Utes – 36%
- BYU Cougars – 33%
In contention: Tennessee (33%), LSU (28%), Florida (27%), Michigan (24%), Louisville (21%), USC (21%), Oregon (21%), Missisippi State (20%)
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