College Football Playoff Picks: Brad Powers' Best Bets for Round 2

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As the field narrows and the stakes reach a fever pitch, the second round of the College Football Playoff presents a high-stakes puzzle for bettors. After a first round defined by physical mismatches and a pair of high-profile exits, the quarterfinals feature a collision of battle-tested contenders and rested heavyweights coming off their byes.

Renowned professional handicapper Brad Powers is back to dissect the board, leaning on his signature power ratings to find value where the public sees parity. From the Buckeye's defensive dominance to Kirby Smart’s mastery with extra prep time, Powers breaks down the situational edges that define this week's slate.

Check out his NCAAF picks and analysis below.

Cotton Bowl: Miami vs Ohio State best bet

Pick: Miami Team Total Under 16.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Start with the clearest edge on the board: Miami's team total Under 16.5 against Ohio State's devastating defense. This play threads multiple theses including elite defense, possession control, and red-zone compression. When the opponent values clock and field position and you're facing the country's most reliable stop unit, 17 points becomes a high bar. The historical ceiling against the Buckeyes this season is the clincher.

"No team this year has topped 16 points against Ohio State's defense," Powers says. "Indiana only scored 13. Indiana might have the best offense in the country."

Orange Bowl: Oregon vs Texas Tech best bet

Pick: Over 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

An entirely different angle supports Oregon–Texas Tech Over 52.5. Oregon's favored status, even against a Texas Tech side with an impressive record against the spread, signals the Ducks' underlying strength: a tougher schedule and a superior offensive line that can protect the quarterback and create explosives against lighter boxes.

Texas Tech's ATS chops reflect a team that stays in numbers and trades scores. Against Oregon's blend of pace and trench control, the game environment tilts toward sustained drives and quick-strike potential, lifting the floor for total points.

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi vs Georgia best bet

Pick: Georgia -6.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

Georgia -6.5 profiles as a classic postseason "lay it" with a coach who treats bowls like business. The Bulldogs' substantial edge in preparation, staff stability, and roster cohesion, amplified by their historical performance under Kirby Smart, shifts this beyond a normal neutral-field number.

When the opponent is navigating a leadership gap, the Bulldogs' efficiency and game-planning acumen scale into double-digit outcome territory more often than the spread implies.

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs Texas lean

Pick: Under 48.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Finally, embrace the broader bowl trend: team total Unders. With opt-outs mounting, continuity suffers most on timing routes, protections, and defensive communication, creating more stalled drives and fewer explosive sequences.

Markets are adjusting, but not always enough, especially for teams down coordinators or playing a backup quarterback. Picking on fragile offenses, rather than fading entire teams, keeps exposure tighter and aligns with the season's defensive tilt.

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Defensive dominance shaping game outcomes

In a season with explosive offenses from coast to coast, Ohio State's defense stands as a singular force. For bettors, that unit offers the rare commodity of certainty. When a defense consistently dictates line of scrimmage, wins the leverage battle on early downs, and compresses the red zone, totals shrink, game scripts stabilize, and underdog covers become far harder to chase against them. That's exactly the profile driving several of the most confident positions on the board.

"The best unit in all of college football is Ohio State's defense," Powers proclaims.

Defensive dominance in 2025 is also about game control – fewer snaps, fewer explosive opportunities, and more drives ending in field goals or punts. When a team is content to play a low-possession game, it maximizes the value of a great defense and amplifies the downside for opposing offenses that rely on rhythm or tempo. That's why bettors aren't just backing elite defenses to win; they're pairing those reads with Unders, team totals against, and correlated plays that assume the defense will be the central character from kickoff to the final whistle.

Underrated and overrated teams based on performance and perception

Public perception can lag reality, especially when a brand name has survived close calls. Alabama enters the postseason as the biggest underdog it has been since 2008, a data point that underscores how the market is finally catching up to its limitations.

On the other side sits an Indiana team with the résumé no one else can match: two high-end road wins in pressure environments against elite opposition. Powers goes a step further, arguing the gap between mystique and material is widest in this matchup.

"I think Alabama, generally speaking, is overrated," he says. "Somehow they still finding ways to win games. But Indiana, dare I say, is underrated. The No. 1 team in the country. Nobody in the country has two quality wins like they have against Ohio State and Oregon, both away from home."

Underrated doesn't just mean disrespected; it means mispriced. Indiana's completeness gives it more ways to win than opponents built around one elite trait. If Alabama cannot assert the run and control the script, its margin erodes quickly. That's why the analysts see the Hoosiers as a true favorite, not just because of résumé, but because of matchup leverage that translates into cover probability.

Conference strength and postseason trends

Kirby Smart's postseason record is the gold standard for translating regular-season dominance into January results: seven wins in eight major postseason games, with an average margin of 20 points per game. That level of consistency is almost unheard of in an era of opt-outs and portal churn, and it's a key reason Georgia gets graded on a different curve. Bettors backing the Bulldogs aren't only trusting talent, they're trusting a process that habitually elevates in high leverage.

"In his last eight go-arounds Kirby Smart is 7-1 straight up, with an average win by 20 points per game in the postseason," Powers says. "And he's not playing in the Pop-Tarts Bowl either. We're talking playoff games. We're talking major bowl games."

This postseason also reframes conference narratives. Oregon's edge over Texas Tech despite the Red Raiders' ATS prowess underscores schedule strength and line-of-scrimmage advantage, core markers of top-tier programs irrespective of league.

The Big Ten's defensive profile, headlined by Ohio State, travels into bowls where pace slows and physicality matters more snap-to-snap. And the SEC's aura, while earned, isn't impenetrable; Alabama entering as its largest underdog in over a decade hints at a more balanced national picture where you price matchups, not logos.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

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