College Football Playoff: Round 1 Betting Odds, Predictions, & More

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College Football Playoff: Round 1 Betting Odds, Predictions, & More

The College Football Playoff gets underway next week with a few great first-round matchups.

Here’s a look at the bracket, which includes 12 teams, four of whom have a first-round bye. First-round games will be played at the home stadium of the higher-seeded team.

All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook

First-round predictions

No. 9 Alabama (10-3) at No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)

  • Betting odds: Alabama -1.5
  • Total: Over/Under 40.5 points

Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21 last month in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama being favored is a bit interesting considering they’re coming off a non-competitive loss of 28-7 to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama ranks No. 67 in total offense and will face fierce resistance from Oklahoma, who rank N0. 9 in total defense. The Sooners’ defense is for real and ranks No. 1 in sacks with 41.

Prediction: Oklahoma will come out on top. The home-field advantage could be a difference maker, and it’ll be hard for Alabama’s offense and quarterback Ty Simpson to communicate and operate. Simpson’s coming off a poor game against Georgi,a where he was just 19-of-39 for 212 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

No. 10 Miami (10-2) at No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)

  • Betting Odds: Texas A&M -3.5
  • Total: Over/Under 51.5 points

Much has been made of Miami leaping ahead of Notre Dame in the playoff rankings (despite beating Notre Dame this season), and a win over A&M would give credence to the Hurricanes being put in and ND being left out. Texas A&M will be looking to start a new win streak after losing 27-17 to Texas the last week of the regular season, which was the Aggies’ lone loss of the year.

Miami and Texas A&M are evenly matched teams — the Hurricanes rank No. 29 in total offense and No.11 in total defense, while the Aggies rank No. 20 in Total offense and No. 19 in total defense. Miami and A&M have played twice in recent years, with A&M winning at home in ‘22 and Miami doing the same in ‘23.

Prediction: With the teams being so evenly matched and the precedent of the home team winning this matchup recently, rolling with Texas A&M to win and cover is the right call. Miami quarterback Carson Beck is as streaky as they come, and always seems bound to have one or two games per season where his decision-making becomes costly. Beck threw four interceptions in Miami’s loss to Louisville and two in their loss to SMU. Expect Beck to turn it over via interception or fumble against an Aggies defense that really gets to the quarterback.

No. 11 Tulane (11-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)

  • Betting Odds: -17.5 Ole Miss.
  • Total: Over/Under 56.5 points

No Lane Kiffin, no problem? We’re about to find out if that is the case with Ole Miss, as Kiffin’s now the head coach of LSU after departing Oxford via private jet last week. Rebels’ defensive coordinator Pete Golding is now the head coach and is hoping the Ole Miss team doesn’t skip a beat. Ole Miss’ only loss of the season was 43-35 to Georgia, while Tulane’s two losses were 45-10 to Ole Miss and 48-26 to UTSA.

Tulane ranks No. 41 in total offense and No. 66 in total defense, while Ole Miss ranks No. 3 in total offense and No. 33 in total defense.

Prediction: Ole Miss should win and cover, even at -17.5. The perception that Ole Miss won’t be the same without Kiffin at the helm is likely an overblown narrative. This is an Ole Miss team pursuing a national championship, and that aspiration will override the distractions created by Kiffin. Tulane will have to put up a much better fight in this trip to Oxford, but a final score of 45-10 like last time is much more realistic than the Green Wave pulling off an upset.

No. 12 James Madison (12-1) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1)

  • Betting Odds: -21.5 Oregon
  • Total: Over/Under 50.5 points

James Madison is perceived to have the worst shot of winning its first-round matchup, but this game could get interesting. The Dukes rank No. 22 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense, while the Ducks rank No. 13 in total offense and No. 4 in total defense.

Oregon’s only loss of the season came to No. 1 Indiana by a score of 30-2,0 but had a nail-biting 30-24 overtime win against Penn State and a last-minute 18-16 win over Iowa. James Madison’s only loss of the year was 28-14 to a Louisville team that also beat Miami.

Prediction: Expect Oregon to win, but not to cover. James Madison head coach Bob Chesney will be UCLA’s new head coach but is sticking with the Dukes through the playoffs, something the players wanted. This is a great coaching matchup between Chesney and Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, and while Oregon has the more talented roster, this could be a competitive game.

National Champion Betting Odds

Here’s a look at who’s the favorite to win the National Championship.

  • Ohio State: +220
  • Indiana: +290
  • Georgia: +550
  • Oregon: +800
  • Texas Tech: +900
  • Texas A&M: +1700
  • Alabama: +2200
  • Miami (FL): +2200
  • Ole Miss: +2200
  • Oklahoma: +4500
  • James Madison: +70000
  • Tulane: +75000

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