College Football Playoff Top 12 Prediction: Four First-Time Programs Projected In
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At the midway point of the college football season, and just a few weeks away from the first College Football Playoff top 25, what will the final 12-team field be? We give our best guess, and wow, is it crazy – but there’s a reason.
We’re making the call that a slew of newcomers will get in, with Iowa, UCLA, Wake Forest, and Utah all projected to make the final 12.
The Power Four champions, the top Group of Six champ, and Notre Dame, if it’s in the top 12, all get in. After that, the College Football Playoff committee can take anyone it wants. However, even with the emphasis on schedule strength, the CFP will likely still go with power conference teams that go 10-2 or better.
It’s fluid; Florida and LSU were locks a few weeks ago. Now we’re going in a different direction. Going off our picks for every game over the rest of the season, here’s our latest College Football Playoff prediction.
Predicted College Football Playoff Final Top 12 Ranking
12. James Madison Dukes
Projected Final Record: 13-0
The predicted Sun Belt champion will get the Group of Six’s spot, but one slip along the way, and either Boise State from the Pac-12 or New Mexico from the Mountain West will likely be the next top option. (One other thing: James Madison, or the top Group of Six champ, won’t be the No. 12 team in the rankings, but will likely be the 12-seed.)
11. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Projected Final Record: 11-2
If – and this is a gigantic IF – Wake Forest beats SMU in Dallas on November 14th. If that doesn’t happen, then the loser of the Big 12 Championship – likely either BYU, Texas Tech, or Utah – will find a home here.
SMU still has to go to Notre Dame, but Wake Forest will almost certainly be favored in every game the rest of the way – at Cal, Virginia, Merrimack, at Georgia Tech, Duke – other than the date with the Mustangs. If the Demon Deacons get through cleanly, they go to the ACC Championship and lose to Miami for the second time this season.
10. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Final Record: 10-2
There are still landmines to sidestep, but Iowa already got the Ohio State game out of the way and beat Michigan and Washington on the road. There’s probably one more loss along the way – at Minnesota, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, at Illinois, Nebraska – but there probably won’t be two.
9. UCLA Bruins
Projected Final Record: 11-1
That 17-15 win at Oregon was it. That was it. That was the one that should propel UCLA into the College Football Playoff with no Ohio State, Indiana, or Iowa on the schedule. It’ll lose once the rest of the way, and even if it drops two games – Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, at Minnesota, Illinois, at Michigan, USC – it would be a 10-2 Big Ten team, and almost certainly in.
8. Indiana Hoosiers
Projected Final Record: 11-2
To be perfectly honest, we’re not 100% sold that there aren’t two losses coming before the Big Ten Championship if the Hoosiers play like they did against Northwestern and Nebraska. For now, though, the call is that they lose to Ohio State, but run the rest of the table – at Michigan, Minnesota, USC, at Washington, Purdue – before losing in the Big Ten title game.
7. Texas Longhorns
Projected Final Record: 10-2
Last year, Texas won the Red River Rivalry, and Oklahoma ended up going to the College Football Playoff, and the Longhorns didn’t. Reverse that this time around. Texas is ahead of Indiana because the committee will love the win over Ohio State.
There will be another loss along the way – Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Missouri, at LSU, Arkansas, at Texas A&M – but a third team from the SEC will somehow get in.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected Final Record: 11-2
The Crimson Tide have to go to LSU, and dealing with Tennessee this week won’t be easy, but the prediction for now is that they’ll get to the SEC Championship, lose again to Georgia, and get in as the highest-ranked team that didn’t win a conference title.
5. Utah Utes
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Utah stumbles somewhere along the way – like, at Arizona on November 14, or at TCU a week later – but it beats BYU once, and then does it again in the Big 12 Championship to get the five-seed.
4. Miami Hurricanes
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Miami will keep on rolling through its schedule, but it’ll drop the date in South Bend against Notre Dame on November 7th. That will be it, though – five of the last seven games are at home. The Hurricanes will win their first ACC Championship to earn the 4-seed.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected Final Record: 12-1
At Indiana, at USC, Oregon, Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan. Considering the running game isn’t amazing, and the defense isn’t quite as amazing as it’s been in past years, getting through without another loss is hardly a given – that could come this week in Bloomington. But for now, we’re projecting that the eventual Big Ten champion goes here, and that it’ll be the Buckeyes.
2. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected Final Record: 12-1
Georgia will be a massive favorite against everyone on the schedule the rest of the way, but it could lose the it-should-still-be-called Cocktail Party against Florida, or at Ole Miss, or slip against Missouri or at South Carolina. But it won’t lose twice, it’ll get to the SEC Championship, win it, and grab one of the top seeds.
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected Final Record: 12-0
Going to BYU this week will be a fight, the Miami game should be epic, and the SMU date in South Bend won’t be much of a problem as the Fighting Irish rip through their slate to get to 12-0 and the top spot.
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