College football prediction market bets for Week 3: LSU dominates Ole Miss
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Kalshi and Polymarket traders have priced six Week 3 college football games, led by LSU head coach Lane Kiffin’s return to Ole Miss on Saturday night after he left the Rebels for their rival following the 2025 regular season.
Traders favor Clemson, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Louisville at home. Still, North Carolina, SMU and Mississippi State all arrive as road underdogs with better wins through two weeks, while LSU and Florida are the only road favorites among the six games.
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North Carolina over Clemson
- Saturday, September 19, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 39% UNC, 63% CLEM. Polymarket: 39% UNC, 62% CLEM
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney is starting true freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds, a move Swinney called performance-based, while Christopher Vizzina deals with an elbow injury. The Tigers lost 51-10 at LSU in Week 1 and beat Georgia Southern just 22-7 in Week 2 while going 2 of 14 on third down.
Clemson ranks last in its 17-team conference in scoring at 16 points per game and in total offense at 246 yards per game. Its offense has succeeded on only 29.2% of its plays, which ties for 117th in the country.
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick brings a 2-0 team to Memorial Stadium. His defense allowed 13 points in wins over TCU and East Tennessee State.
Clemson has won seven straight games in the series. However, Reynolds makes his first career start against a defense that held TCU to 10 points.
Pick: 24-10, North Carolina
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Vanderbilt over NC State
- Saturday, September 19, 12:45 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 39% NCST, 61% VAN. Polymarket: 40% NCST, 61% VAN
Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea hasn’t named a full-time starter, but freshman quarterback Jared Curtis took every snap in the second half of a 35-26 win over Delaware. The Nashville native threw for 210 yards and a touchdown and ran for two more scores as the Commodores erased a 17-14 halftime deficit.
Vanderbilt’s defense added six sacks and two interceptions in that game, and the program has won nine straight home games.
NC State routed Richmond 73-0 and rushed for 428 yards. However, that win followed a 34-8 loss at Virginia in Week 0.
Quarterback CJ Bailey threw for a career-low 84 yards against the Cavaliers. The Wolfpack have also lost six straight regular-season games against SEC teams. Vanderbilt’s pass rush now faces an offense that managed 168 total yards against its only Power Four opponent.
Pick: 30-24, Vanderbilt
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SMU over Louisville
- Saturday, September 19, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 49% SMU, 52% LOU. Polymarket: 48% SMU, 53% LOU
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has beaten Louisville in each of the last two seasons, winning 34-27 on the road in 2024 and 38-6 at home in 2025. The Dallas native leads the country in total offense at 402.5 yards per game, and he threw five touchdown passes in one half of a 56-10 win over UC Davis.
Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm called Jennings, per the Louisville Courier Journal, “one of the best quarterbacks in the country.”
Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, an Ohio State transfer, ranks second nationally in total offense at 375 yards per game. But the Cardinals’ defense has allowed three 60-plus-yard touchdowns in two games. SMU’s passing game ranks 13th in the country in efficiency, while Louisville’s pass defense sits 61st, so Jennings has the matchup he needs to win a third straight time against the Cardinals.
Pick: 32-28, SMU
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Mississippi State over South Carolina
- Saturday, September 19, 4:15 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 40% MS ST, 62% SCAR. Polymarket: 39% MS ST, 62% SCAR
Mississippi State sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor leads the Southeastern Conference in passing yards and hasn’t thrown an interception through two games. The 6-foot-4 Macon, Mississippi, native threw for 227 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 86 yards in a 38-13 win at Minnesota.
The Bulldogs outrushed the Golden Gophers 252-13 that day, one week after beating Louisiana-Monroe 62-13.
South Carolina is also 2-0, but those wins came against Kent State (57-0) and Towson (45-9). The Gamecocks finished 4-8 in 2025. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers broke off a 58-yard touchdown run against Towson. South Carolina might also get star edge rusher Dylan Stewart back from injury.
Still, Mississippi State owns the matchup’s only Power Four win. Taylor gives the Gamecocks their first test against a power-conference offense.
Pick: 41-20, Mississippi State
Florida over Auburn
- Saturday, September 19, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 57% FLA, 44% AUB. Polymarket: 57% FLA, 44% AUB
Florida head coach Jon Sumrall’s Tulane team beat Auburn head coach Alex Golesh’s South Florida squad 45-10 in 2024, outgaining the Bulls 528-201 in their only head-to-head meeting.
The former South Florida coach’s offense sputtered in a 17-16 win over Baylor in Week 1. Baylor gave Auburn the ball five times on failed fourth downs, a missed field goal, a fumble and an interception, but the Tigers scored only three points off those chances.
Florida running back Jadan Baugh leads the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and Vernell Brown III leads the nation in punt-return touchdowns. Quarterback Aaron Philo has 517 passing yards and five touchdowns in wins over Florida Atlantic (66-21) and Campbell (52-3). Auburn’s defense ranks in the top 25 nationally against the run, so points should come slowly, but Florida’s return game gives the Gators shorter fields to work with.
Pick: 22-10, Florida
LSU over Ole Miss
- Saturday, September 19, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Kalshi: 59% LSU, 42% MISS. Polymarket: 59% LSU, 42% MISS
LSU’s defense held Clemson to 10 points in a 51-10 win and then allowed 140 net yards with seven sacks against Louisiana Tech. Opponents have succeeded on only 24.2% of their plays against the Tigers, the fifth-best rate in the country.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw three interceptions in the 45-14 win over Louisiana Tech but also ran for three touchdowns. Kiffin said afterward, “We’re winning by 31 points, and we’re really upset.”
Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss completed 23 of 26 passes in a 41-9 win over Charlotte, and the Rebels have won 13 straight home games. Still, Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding’s defense gave up 38 points to Louisville in Week 1 before a 48-yard field goal as time expired won it 41-38. LSU’s seven-sack pass rush can keep Chambliss from extending plays and pull the Tigers ahead by two scores in the fourth quarter.
Pick: 38-17, LSU
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