College Football Predictions: Evening Picks for Week 3 on Saturday, September 19
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We have a few more games left before we move on to Week 4.
Our staff of college football betting experts loves this night’s slate, with 5 college football predictions for this evening on Saturday, September 19, headlined by LSU vs Ole Miss.
College Football Predictions, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss finds itself at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball.
Sam Leavitt will be throwing against a Rebels secondary that has given up nine passes of 20 yards or more with 35 missed tackles. Despite throwing four interceptions through two games, Leavitt also has three big-time throws to just a single turnover-worthy play.
The alarming number from the Louisiana Tech box score was 15 pressures, but Ole Miss will attack Leavitt with a pass rush that grades out at 111th, per PFF.
If the Tigers can resolve the highest drop rate of Leavitt’s career at 12.8% within the receiver room, LSU should find plenty of explosives through the passing game.
Trinidad Chambliss will have a much tougher time with execution, as Princely Umanmielen returns to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss ranks mid-FBS in Havoc allowed, so the LSU defensive line will be playing behind the line of scrimmage.
The Rebels have had issues controlling the line of scrimmage with the rushing attack, ranking outside the top 75 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The Tigers have missed only half of the tackles compared to the Rebels, suggesting that Kewan Lacy and Chambliss will see a decrease in yards after first contact.
Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for LSU to be favored by six points.
With a dozen analytical categories suggesting the Tigers’ defense will have firm control against the Rebels’ offense, the game will come down to Leavitt creating explosives against the Ole Miss secondary.
The LSU quarterback already has five rushing touchdowns on the season, an area in which Lincoln Kienholz has logged a touchdown against the Ole Miss defense.
Pick: LSU -3 or Better
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By Stuckey
This is a tough spot for Oklahoma following a deflating loss at Michigan, with a trip to Athens to take on Georgia next. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Sooners came out a little bit flat against a New Mexico team that has bludgeoned its first two opponents.
Yes, the competition was weak, but the dominance can’t be questioned in a pair of victories by almost 100 points over Mercyhurst and Central Michigan, which barely combined for 300 total yards.
This is one of the most experienced and saltier Group of 6 defenses that won’t be intimidated by the stage or opponent.
Additionally, the Sooners have some major issues at the moment.
The running game hasn’t been fixed, which maybe isn’t too surprising since it’s very reliant on a Colorado State transfer to headline the backfield.
Quarterback John Mateer is the best option in that department, but I doubt Venables wants to unleash his legs against New Mexico any more than he has to prior to an SEC gauntlet.
Mateer also still has accuracy issues and can be a bit too careless with the rock at times, so don’t be surprised if the Lobos take one or two away.
The Sooners also continue to deal with offensive line issues, which haven’t helped the lackluster rushing attack. They’ll also be without one of their top receivers in Trell Harris, which will make life much easier for the Lobo secondary.
The Oklahoma defense is still one of the best in the country, but it appears to be a notch below last year’s unit and now will have to make do without stud linebacker Kip Lewis.
And regardless of what you think of this Sooners’ stop unit, the depth certainly isn’t as elite as 2025.
New Mexico obviously won’t have an easy time moving the ball, but I trust Jason Eck to draw up enough creative plays to put some points on the board.
In a game with a total sitting at 46.5 at the moment, it may only take 10 points to get to the window. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that New Mexico has elite special teams.
At a bare minimum, the Lobos will eat up the clock when they have possession, and they won’t operate with tempo.
They also have great depth at the quarterback position, so there won’t be a significant drop-off if the game gets out of hand. They could easily sneak in the backdoor if needed.
I think anything north of three touchdowns deserves a look in what should be a lower-scoring game and a potential flat spot for the Sooners.
This is also a very difficult offense to prepare for, and it’s possible Oklahoma spent a good chunk of this week prepping for its next two opponents in Georgia and Texas.
Pick: New Mexico +21.5 or Better
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This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In both regular season and postseason college football, large home favorites in non-conference matchups often create conditions for higher scoring than the market anticipates.
When the point spread is wide, but the total is set low, it signals expectations of a dominant performance by one side while undervaluing their ability to score quickly and consistently.
Non-conference games can feature mismatches in talent and depth, leading to offensive surges and late scoring from backups against overmatched defenses.
This combination often pushes the total over despite conservative pregame projections.
Pick: Over 51 or Better
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By Kyle Hunter
The Tennessee Volunteers host the Kennesaw State Owls in what will be a major mismatch on Saturday night.
Josh Heupel’s teams have a long history of smashing weaker opponents, and they’ve been particularly good in the first half in these spots.
How about this nugget from Bet Labs? Heupel’s teams are a whopping 49-26 against the spread in the first half in his career. When favored by two touchdowns or more, they’re 16-4 ATS in the first half (FBS vs. FBS games).
In all of Heupel’s games as a coach, the first-half over has gone 40-32-4. Year after year, his teams are in the lead or near the lead in first-half points.
Kennesaw State had a fun season last year, but this team is completely overmatched. Georgia State moved the ball on Kennesaw with ease last week.
The Owls’ defensive front is a big weakness, and Tennessee has run the ball really well. The Volunteers put up for 299 yards on the ground at Georgia Tech last weekend.
Quarterback Faizon Brandon has looked good thus far for the Volunteers. This is a great chance for Tennessee to get everything going before its massive home game against Texas next weekend.
Heupel’s team being so consistently strong in the first half, along with the potential that they could shut it down late because of their opponent next week, makes me go with the first-half wager here.
Pick: Tennessee 1H TT Over 28 or Better
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By Joshua Nunn
This game opened with Boise State listed as a 24.5-point favorite with a total that now sits at 55.5.
I’m on the over in this matchup.
South Dakota has given up 20 or more points in every game this season. Central Connecticut State, Northern Colorado, and most recently, Eastern Washington all moved the ball against this defense. Boise State will also find success here.
The Yotes don’t have as tough a front seven as we’ve come to expect at USD, and Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley will gash them on the ground.
That will open up the play-action game for Boise State to take deep shots or hit the tight ends in the intermediate passing game. I expect Maddox Madsen to look sharp and be very efficient throwing the football.
On the other side, Austyn Modrzewski will throw the ball around the yard here.
In prior games against FBS competition, USD would often deploy a slow-paced, rush-heavy attack with zero offensive creativity, but the skill set of the quarterback will enable the Yotes to go into Boise and run their stuff.
I think we get a full go of the passing offense, and the receivers will be able to make plays in the one-on-one game. USD will also use backup quarterback Jackson Proctor, who transferred in from Dartmouth, in certain packages where both quarterbacks will be on the field at the same time.
Don’t be surprised if we see a trick play or two for the Yotes to sneak a cheap one past the Boise State defense.
We should see big plays from both offenses in this game. The Boise State offense will score plenty of points in this one, and seeing USD score two or three touchdowns wouldn’t surprise me at all.
I look for a wildly entertaining, high-scoring game that eclipses the posted total.
Pick: Over 56 or Better
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