College Football Predictions, Picks: Expert Week 4 Best Bet for Oklahoma State vs West Virginia

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Oklahoma State and West Virginia met just three times in the 20th century, but that all changed once West Virginia joined the Big 12 in 2012. Since then, the Cowboys and Mountaineers have locked horns 13 times.

And the common factor in those matchups has been high-scoring affairs.

On four occasions, they’ve combined for north of 80 points. Given their dynamic offenses and work-in-progress defenses, the conditions are set for another points-fest on Saturday night in Morgantown.

Let’s dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia in Week 4 on Saturday, Sept. 26 below.

• Over 59.5

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Rich Rodriguez returned to West Virginia in December 2024 after leading the program to new heights in the early 2000s.

RichRod won 70% of his games during his first stint at WVU. He finished 32-5 in his final three years but lost his last game as the program’s head coach. That devastating 13-9 defeat to Pitt in the annual Backyard Brawl cost West Virginia its first shot at a national title since 1988.

But the stars aligned for RichRod to return 17 years later. Last season was a bumpy ride, as the Mountaineers finished with a lackluster 4-8 record.

But this year, WVU has all the ingredients to perfectly run Rodriguez’s spread option system. The founding father of the read option simply needed a lightning-quick quarterback and a decisive one-cut feature back, and now he has both.

Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred in from Oklahoma after a few seasons of spot duty for the Sooners. His skill set was underutilized in Norman, as the coaching staff tried to make him a true dual-threat passer.

For nearly two decades, every true WVU fan dreamt of the next Pat White descending from the heavens, and through three games, they may have gotten their wish.

Hawkins ranks second nationally in QBR, having thrown five touchdowns and run for six more.

Joining him in the Mountaineer backfield is Cam Cook, who led the nation in rushing last season in RichRod’s scheme at Jacksonville State. He’s averaging over 100 yards per game and has maintained his superhuman ability to break tackles (23, third-most).

As a duo, Hawkins and Cook have led WVU to the third-highest non-Service Academy rushing average in the nation through three games.

On paper, Oklahoma State has a good run defense, but context matters. Last week, it played a lowly FCS program in Murray State that’s 7-43 in its last 50 games.

The week before that, Oregon dug itself a massive hole and all but abandoned the run by the second quarter.

So while OSU defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has proven to be an upgrade, I’m not convinced he’ll have many answers for this spread option attack.

As with any over bet, tempo is critical. Both the ‘Neers and Pokes operate uptempo offenses, snapping the ball every 24 seconds. This places both programs inside the top 20 in terms of pace among Power 4 programs.

After a slow start against Tulsa, the Pokes’ offense has exploded in the past eight quarters. They ran up 554 yards and 39 points on Oregon, and that included a red-zone interception that cost them even more points.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 300 yards and ran for 100 against the Ducks, making him the first quarterback to do that to UO since 2016 (Steven Montez).

Three Cowboys have reached 100 rushing yards already this season, including Mestemaker. Five receivers have also eclipsed 100 yards receiving.

While WVU is relying on its stars to win this game, Oklahoma State has created a pick-your-poison dilemma for opposing defensive coordinators.

That brings us to the final pillar of this play: West Virginia’s defense.

Last season, the Mountaineers were a sieve defensively, especially against the pass (129th). And while there have been improvements, West Virginia’s secondary is still a work in progress.

Despite facing an FCS opponent in Week 2, the Mountaineers check in at 114th in pass defense, 76th in coverage (per PFF), and 95th in passes of 30-plus yards allowed.

Oklahoma State will find success through the air and push this game into the 70s before all is said and done.

Pick: Over 59.5

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