College Football Predictions, Picks: Our Ladder Strategy for South Carolina vs. Florida

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To consistently win as a college football bettor, you need to be a savvy investor. This is especially true when it comes to backing favorites.

The public is too quick to lay points with top-ranked name brands without truly understanding what they’re getting themselves into.

Bettors have to “pay” for advantages at the window in the form of laying points. It’s the reason why Nick Saban won 93% of his games outright as a home favorite at Alabama but only covered in 53.5% of those matchups.

From talent to home-field advantage, every edge comes with a price tag.

Most weeks, I start my process by identifying undervalued assets, looking to buy low. But every once in a while, a home team pops off the page as a completely mispriced favorite. This week, that team is the Florida Gators.

Let’s dive into my college football predictions and my South Carolina vs. Florida picks for Week 6 below. For more college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today.

Florida crushed Ole Miss at home two weeks ago, 52-28, while generating nearly 500 yards of total offense.

And home-field dominance has been a theme for UF early in head coach Jon Sumrall’s tenure. The Gators are averaging 57 points per game at The Swamp, covering both games against FBS competition by 19.5 points each.

Sumrall, now on his third school in five years, has gone 10-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite, which is a solid hit rate. But it’s not the 59% ATS record in those spots; it’s the fact that he’s bested the closing number by 10 or more points in six of those 10 covers.

Translation: When he has a chance to run it up on an overwhelmed opponent, he shows no mercy.

If there was ever a team in need of mercy, it’s South Carolina.

The Gamecocks are 1-10 in their last 11 SEC games and have blown double-digit leads in three of their last four conference games dating back to the end of last season.

Making matters worse is that their best player, Dylan Stewart, is suspended indefinitely. Stewart punched Alabama tight end Josh Ford in the helmet two weeks ago and clashed with coaches who tried to remove him from the game.

But that’s only the tip of the iceberg. This program-wide tailspin has head coach Shane Beamer’s seat lava hot. Beamer has gone 6-12 straight up across his last 18 games, but his buyout is making it difficult for the university to move on.

If he were to be fired today, the university would still be on the hook for $24 million, and that figure would only drop to $22.8 million by season’s end. So for the time being, South Carolina is stuck with Beamer in this uncontrolled nose dive.

Alabama jumped on South Carolina in the Gamecocks’ first road game of the season, roaring out to a 35-3 lead before coasting to a 31-point win as a 12.5-point favorite.

Florida is poised to do the same, and I expect laser-like focus from its offense following a dud against Missouri over the weekend.

Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is a run-game genius, but last week, his offense couldn’t get anything going on the ground against Mizzou. The Tigers have a fierce defensive front and rank 15th against the run.

Luckily for Florida, South Carolina can’t stop a runny nose.

The Gamecocks rank 13th in total defense out of 16 teams in SEC play. It’s an even uglier story against conference foes in terms of scoring defense (41.7 PPG allowed, dead last in SEC).

Running back Jadan Baugh will set the tone early on the ground, and from there, the Gators will face little resistance from a South Carolina program on the verge of collapse.

Reports out of Columbia indicate a burgeoning quarterback battle between LaNorris Sellers and Cutter Woods, and Sellers has struggled on the road since last season. If they pull Sellers, the bottom falls out.

From a money management standpoint, this is a two-unit play. I’ll put one full unit on Florida laying the 14 and then four alternate line wagers at .25 units apiece: -20.5 at +167, -23.5 at +233, -27.5 at +360, -34.5 at +760.

Picks

• Florida -14
• Florida -20.5 (+167)
• Florida -23.5 (+233)
• Florida -27.5 (+360)
• Florida -34.5 (+760)

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