College Football Top 25 Predictions Week 2: Watchability Ratings & Best Bets

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While every program ranked in the AP Top 25 hits the field in Week 2, just one matchup features two ranked teams, and it's one of the biggest games of the year.

Ohio State vs. Texas is the crown jewel of my Week 2 college football Top 25 predictions and college football picks, but it's far from the only game worth watching this week. 

The Buckeyes' and Longhorns' biggest rivals also clash, as Michigan looks for redemption against Oklahoma. Plus, the Cy-Hawk Trophy is on the line, and the Border War is back for a second straight year.

College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 2

(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)

Matchup	Watch Rating	Pick	Probability
Ohio State vs. Texas	5/5	-1.5 ⚪	52%
Oklahoma vs. Michigan	5/5	-5.5 🟡	51%
Missouri vs. Kansas	5/5	+5.5 🟡	49%
Iowa State vs. Iowa	4/5	-13.5 🟢	54%
Oregon vs.  Oklahoma State	4/5	-23.5 🟡	50%
Arizona State vs. Texas A&M	4/5	-14.5 🟡	48%
Alabama vs. Kentucky	3/5	-10.5 🟡	50%
Arizona vs. BYU	3/5	+7.5 🟡	49%
Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech	3/5	-11.5 🟡	53%
Arkansas vs. Utah	3/5	-13.5 ⚪	48%
Texas Tech vs. Oregon State	3/5	+27.5 🟢	55%
Penn State vs. Temple	2/5	+24.5 ⚪	52%
Louisiana vs. USC	2/5	-30.5 🟡	50%
Louisiana Tech vs. LSU	2/5	-35.5 ⚪	52%
Utah State vs. Washington	1/5	+27.5 🟡	53%
UC Davis vs. SMU	1/5	+24.5 🟡	47%
Rice vs. Notre Dame	1/5	+44.5 🟡	50%
Western Kentucky vs. Georgia	1/5	-41.5 🟡	49%
Villanova vs. Louisville	1/5	+35.5 🟡	46%
Charlotte vs. Mississippi	1/5	-47.5 ⚪	52%
Norfolk State vs. Virginia	1/5	-45.5 🟡	50%
Southern vs. Houston	1/5	-50.5 ⚪	46%
Florida A&M vs. Miami	1/5	-57.5 🟡	47%
Howard vs. Indiana	1/5	-55.5 🟡	52%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Tier 1 watchability for Week 2 (must-watch)

Ohio State (1) vs Texas (4)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Texas -1.5 ⚪
• ML pick: Texas (52%) 🟡 
• Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟢 

The winner of this game is almost guaranteed to be the college football national championship odds favorite next week. It's also the third straight season Ohio State and Texashave played, with the Buckeyes winning each of the previous two games.

This year, with Ohio State traveling to Austin, the Longhorns are in position to finally get revenge. Since last November, Arch Manning has looked like the next No. 1 pick in his family — he led the country in QBR from November onward last year (87.5). Steve Sarkisian also upped the talent around his star QB this year by adding  Cam Coleman, Melvin Siani, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown.

With reinforcements on offense, Manning should be able to pressure an Ohio State defense that had five starters drafted in the Top 62 this past April (a modern-era record) and ranks 78th in returning production (50%). 

Given Texas' offensive upgrades, Ohio State's defensive losses, and Julian Sayin's struggles in games against Top 10 teams (three interceptions, 10 sacks), I have the Longhorns winning 27-24.

Oklahoma (11) vs Michigan

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | Noon ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Oklahoma -5.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Oklahoma (67%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 43.5 ⚪

Thanks to one second being added back on the clock last week and a second Hail Mary attempt connecting for a touchdown, Michigan opened the Kyle Whittingham era with a win against a team coming off a conference championship. But that team was Western Michigan, a program ranked 81st by SP+.

Oklahoma is ranked 10th by SP+, with a defense that's ranked sixth and finished Top 10 in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush last season. Brent Venables is among the best defensive minds in the sport, and last year Michigan QB Bryce Underwood was frazzled against him – he finished with a 44.5 QBR and 37.5% completion percentage.

Underwood's issues haven't improved after he committed five turnover-worthy plays in Week 1, and it won't be any easier against David Stone and Co. That's all without even mentioning Oklahoma has a Heisman Trophy odds contender in QB John Mateer, too. I like OU to cover up to -6.5

Our Chris Vasile makes the contrarian case for Michigan on Saturday.

Missouri (23) vs Kansas

• Game info: Friday, Sept. 11 | 8 p.m. ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Kansas +5.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Missouri (67%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 🟡 

One of the best college football rivalries is back for a second straight season after Missouri and Kansas didn't play the Border War from 2012 to 2024, after the Tigers joined the SEC.

In its return last season, Missouri won 42-31 at home, but this year the Tigers have to travel to Lawrence and are still without All-American running back Ahmad Hardy.

This is also just the second road start of QB Austin Simmons' career (at Mississippi last season, he started on the road against Kentucky and threw two interceptions before an ankle injury led to Trinidad Chambliss taking his starting job).

A shaky start from Simmons could open the door for a Kansas offense that has a creative run game led by dual-threat QB Isaiah Marshall. Marshall has the Jayhawks ranked 38th on offense by SP+, and he's the key reason I would take the Jayhawks to cover +3.5 or better.

Tier 2 watchability for Week 2 (worth watching)

Iowa State vs Iowa (21)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
• ATS pick: Iowa -13.5 🟢 
• ML pick: Iowa (83%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 40.5 ⚪ 

The Iowa State vs. Iowa rivalry history includes a 43-year hiatus that ended when the state legislature got involved to bring it back, and a local group of bowling buddies created the Cy-Hawk Trophy to commemorate the return.

Iowa has also historically dominated the Cy-Hawk series, aside from a few stretches when Iowa State was elevated by a head coach. One such head coach was Matt Campbell, but he's at Penn State now, and the Cyclones are basically a brand-new team under Jimmy Rogers.

Rogers' roster is ranked outside the Top 100 in returning production (45%), and he's starting more than a dozen first-year transfers from non-Power Four programs. Iowa's physical run game and defense should take advantage of the Cyclones and give Kirk Ferentz his 15th Cy-Hawk win. 

Iowa is in play for me up to -16.5.

Oregon (6) vs Oklahoma State

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | Noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
• ATS pick: Oregon -23.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Oregon (94%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟡 

Neither Oregon nor Oklahoma State acquitted themselves well in Week 1, but the Ducks came away with a win against a feisty Boise State team that's gunning for the Group of Six College Football Playoff spot.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State looked like it was still being coached by Mike Gundy when it lost to Tulsa for a second straight season. Nobody expected the Pokes' offense to look that directionless … Drew Mestemaker had just one TD pass and three turnover-worthy plays, with an ugly average depth of target (6.7).

Oklahoma State isn't equipped to do damage against an Oregon defense ranked 12th by SP+, and it's certainly not built to keep up with Dante Moore and his laundry list of playmakers. But I wouldn't take the Ducks to cover more than -23.5.

Arizona State vs Texas A&M (10)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | Noon ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Texas A&M -14.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Texas A&M (84%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 50.5 🟢 

Arizona State might be getting a little too much respect for putting up 70 in Week 1 on an FCS program that went 4-8 last season. While Kenny Dillingham's litany of transfers had some flashy moments against Morgan State, that lack of continuity will really be tested against Texas A&M at Kyle Field.

The Sun Devils are just 70th in returning production, and QB Cutter Boley had more turnover-worthy plays (19) than TD passes (15) last season in the SEC at Kentucky. The Aggies are a well-oiled machine under Mike Elko and are ranked Top 10 on offense and defense by SP+.

Marcel Reed and his deep catching corps should pull away at home, and I'm surprised Texas A&M isn't closer to a 17.5-point favorite (I would take the Aggies to cover up to -16.5).

Tier 3 watchability for Week 2 (interesting)

Alabama (12) vs Kentucky

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/Disney+
• ATS pick: Alabama -10.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Alabama (77%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 🟢

Neither Alabama nor Kentucky had real tests in Week 1, but the Crimson Tide have the clear advantage, even on the road. Alabama's defense is ranked fifth by SP+, Top 25 in EPA per pass, and 12th in early-down EPA per play.

New Kentucky head coach Will Stein is relying on an offense with nine transfers starting, including QB Kenny Minchey. While Minchey had a solid debut against Youngstown State, he's never started against a Power Four program before.

As long as Keelon Russell builds on his first career start, the Crimson Tide can pull away in the second half and win by 11+ points.

Arizona vs BYU (15)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Arizona +7.5 🟡 
• ML pick: BYU (73%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡 

Arizona has the offense to make this a game against BYU for a second straight season; last season they lost to the Cougars by six in overtime.

Noah Fifita is one of the most experienced QBs in the country and was Top 10 in the Power Four in big-time throws while having the fourth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate of any P4 QB with 300+ dropbacks (1.9%). He has Arizona ranked Top 25 on offense by SP+ and can keep the Wildcats in this game.

Arizona also has the defense to slow Bear Bachmeier and BYU's one-dimensional attack – it's No. 3 in the country in havoc rate (34%) – but I wouldn't take the Wildcats to cover a smaller spread than +7.5.

Tennessee (18) vs Georgia Tech

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Tennessee -11.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Tennessee (81%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 ⚪ 

Few teams were as disappointing as Georgia Tech in Week 1. The Yellow Jackets' offensive line was a mess against a Colorado defense that was essentially made up entirely of first-year transfers.

So while Tennessee is starting a true freshman QB in Faizon Brandon, the Volunteers' defense can do the heavy lifting in this matchup. With Arion Carter leading Jim Knowles' defense, Georgia Tech's offense should struggle to score more than 17 points again this week – it ranks last in the ACC in points per opportunity (0.86).

And Brandon looked every bit the five-star talent he was billed as in Week 1, with an 87.5% adjusted completion percentage. He now has the Vols ranked No. 2 on offense by SP+, which is why I would take them to cover -13.5 or better.

Arkansas vs Utah (20)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 10:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Utah -13.5 ⚪ 
• ML pick: Utah (81%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟡 

Utah didn't seem to miss Whittingham in Week 1, with Morgan Scalley's first season as Utah's full-time head coach getting off to a hot start. The Utes beat Idaho by 52 and covered easily as a 35.5-point favorite.

The offense had no problem moving the ball under new coordinator Kevin McGiven, and Arkansas isn't going to change that. The Razorbacks are ranked 94th on defense by SP+, while Utah is Top 25 in the country in offensive success rate (57.1%) behind the play of QB Devon Dampier.

This is also the first career road start for Arkansas QB KJ Jackson, and it comes against a program with one of the best home-field advantages in the Big 12.

Texas Tech (13) vs Oregon State

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7:30 p.m. ET | CBS
• ATS pick: Oregon State +27.5 🟢  
• ML pick: Texas Tech (95%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 🟡 

Week 1 was an eye-opener for both Texas Tech (derogatory) and Oregon State (complimentary). The Red Raiders let Abilene Christian hang around and didn't come close to covering as a 42.5-point favorite; meanwhile, Oregon State had Houston fans sweating on the Beavers' way to covering as a 20.5-point underdog.

Quarterback play was a big reason for both outcomes, with Texas Tech QB Will Hammond looking a little rusty in his first start since tearing his ACL (53.0 QBR) and Oregon State signal-caller Braden Atkinson looking like the Beavers' best QB in years (376 passing yards, two total TDs).

Tech's offense sits ninth in the Big 12 in offensive success rate after Week 1 (50%), and another performance like that will make it impossible to cover a spread this big. Oregon State shouldn't be more than a 24.5-point underdog.

Tier 4 watchability for Week 2 (blowout brewing)

Penn State (16) vs Temple

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | Noon ET | ESPN2
• ATS pick: Temple +24.5 ⚪ 
• ML pick: Penn State (94%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟢 

This is the rare Power Four road game against a Group of Six program, but Temple plays at Lincoln Financial Field, so it won't really feel like small potatoes for Penn State. It especially won't feel small-time when KC Keeler has the Owls scraping and clawing their way to a cover.

Temple is 8-5 ATS since Keeler arrived last season, and the Owls' run-first approach (45 runs vs. 16 passes in Week 1) should help shorten this game. But Temple is only worth considering at +24.5 or better.

Louisiana vs USC (14)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 11 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
• ATS pick: USC -30.5 🟡 
• ML pick: USC (97%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 59.5 🟡 

USC has already played two games and torched two Group of Six defenses, so what's another for Lincoln Riley and the gang? The Trojans are averaging 40.5 PPG, and if not for Riley pulling his starters mid-third quarter in Week 0, USC would be 2-0 ATS.

Jayden Maiavais 11th in the country in QBR (91.0), and has USC ranked 13th in offensive success rate (60.3%). Louisiana's defense is ranked outside the Top 100 by SP+.

Louisiana Tech vs LSU (8)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
• ATS pick: LSU -35.5 ⚪
• ML pick: LSU (98%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 56.5 🟡 

Lane Kiffin seems hell-bent on making a point, both on and off the field. He didn't really let up much against Clemson in the 41-point Week 1 win, so I'd imagine he keeps the foot on the gas against Louisiana Tech.

LSU's front seven is ferocious and sits 12th in havoc rate (28%), while Louisiana Tech's offense is ranked 82nd in the country by SP+. That's a recipe for disaster, and if the Bulldogs can't score, they'll have a hard time covering any spread smaller than +38.5.

Tier 5 watchability for Week 2 (it's still football)

Utah State vs Washington (19)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
• ATS pick: Utah State +27.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Washington (95%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 🟡 

Washington's offense was a mess in the Apple Cup, with its offensive line giving up 16 pressures and its run game struggling to create explosive plays (the Huskies also committed 12 penalties). Although Utah State isn't a threat to keep this close, if it can pressure Demond Williams Jr., it can limit Washington's scoring.

UC Davis vs SMU (17)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 4 p.m. ET | ACC Network Extra
• ATS pick: UC Davis +24.5 🟡 
• ML pick: SMU (95%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟡 

Not only is this a short week for SMU coming off a last-second win against Florida State on Monday (it also dealt with a delay due to a power outage), but it's playing one of the better FCS programs in UC Davis. Led by a budding star in QB Treynor Cleeland, the Aggies are ranked higher by SP+ than several FBS programs (115th). I wouldn't take UC Davis to cover at anything less than +24.5.

Rice vs Notre Dame (3)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 3:30 p.m. ET | NBC
• ATS pick: Rice +44.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Notre Dame (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 🟢 

Notre Dame is going to win this game by 40+ points, but 45+ points? I'm not sure the Fighting Irish will have enough possessions for that against a Scott Abell offense at Rice that ran the ball 49.8 times per game last year and threw it just 17.2 times. In Week 1, the Owls were even more run-heavy, with 69 rush attempts vs. 11 pass attempts. Rice at +42.5 or better is worthwhile.

Western Kentucky vs Georgia (2)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 12:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
• ATS pick: Georgia -41.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Georgia (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 🟡 

Remember that silly trend about Kirby Smart being 0-15-1 ATS when favored by 38+ points? Well, it doesn't work anymore because Georgia beat the hell out of Tennessee State in Week 1 to cover as a 47.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs, who led the country in offensive success rate in Week 1 (70.5%), will do the same to a Western Kentucky team that lost by 35 to a mediocre Nevada team last week.

Villanova vs Louisville (24)

• Game info: Friday, Sept. 11 | 7 p.m. ET | ACC Network
• ATS pick: Villanova +35.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Louisville (98%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 🟡 

Coming off a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi, Louisville has to take on a Villanova team that's ranked above more than a few FBS programs by SP+. The Wildcats have been a consistent FCS power under Mark Ferrante, who's won 10+ games in four of the last five seasons. Across those five seasons, he's lost by fewer than 36 points in three of five games against P4 opponents. But if this dips below +35.5, it's a no-go.

Charlotte vs Mississippi (9)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7:45 p.m. ET | ESPN2
• ATS pick: Mississippi -47.5 ⚪ 
• ML pick: Mississippi (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 61.5 🟡 

It didn't take long for Charlotte to live up to being one of the worst FBS programs in the country. The 49ers lost in triple overtime in their opener to The Citadel, taking head coach Tim Albin's record to 1-12. If Charlotte can't stop an FCS program ranked 293rd by SP+, how will it stop Trinidad Chambliss and a Mississippi offense that's ranked 12th by SP+?

Norfolk State vs Virginia (25)

• Game info: Friday, Sept. 11 | 7 p.m. ET | ACC Network Extra
• ATS pick: Virginia -45.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Virginia (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 🟡 

Virginia opened its season in Week 0 by crushing the hopes and dreams of NC State fans, and then spent Week 1 resting on a bye. Unfortunately for Norfolk State, that means the Cavaliers are fresh and ready to run the rock. Tony Elliott's offensive line is one of the best in the country (it paved the way for 258 yards in Week 0) and should obliterate a Spartans defense that's ranked outside the Top 200 by SP+.

Southern vs Houston (22)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
• ATS pick: Houston -50.5 ⚪ 
• ML pick: Houston (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Under 60.5 🟡 

It was a slow start for Houston in Week 1 against a scrappy Oregon State team, but the Cougars flexed their muscles down the stretch with their stars shining. In comparison, this should be a cakewalk for Conner Weigman, Makhi Hughes, and Amare Thomas. Southern is ranked outside the Top 240 on offense and defense by SP+.

Florida A&M vs Miami (7)

• Game info: Thursday, Sept. 10 | 8 p.m. ET | ACC Network
• ATS pick: Miami -57.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Miami (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 63.5 🟡 

There's a reason Malachi Toney was the focus of my Heisman picks this week; he was the best player in the country in Week 1 with Darian Mensah throwing him the ball. Those two were basically perfect against Stanford and beat them by 39. Against a Florida A&M team ranked 198th on defense by SP+, the Hurricanes could put up 60.

Our Nick Galaida also expects another rout for the Hurricanes with his Florida A&M vs. Miami prediction.

Howard vs Indiana (5)

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 12 | Noon ET | Big Ten Network
• ATS pick: Indiana -55.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Indiana (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 64.5 🟡 

Indiana was up just 11 points on North Texas in the third quarter, and still beat the Mean Green by 36 points. With Josh Hoover likely to be more comfortable in his second start for the Hoosiers, he should light up a Howard defense that's ranked 215th by SP+. Curt Cignetti has beaten FCS opponents by an average of 73.5 points since arriving in Bloomington.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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