College Football Underdog Picks: Week 4 Plays for Traylon Ray, CJ Carr, Bo Jackson & More

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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there.

Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.

Week 3 was simply a week of missed opportunities. Ryan Coleman-Williams finished with 62 yards, Nate Frazier went down with an injury after reaching 75 yards, and Cutter Boley couldn’t complete anything downfield.

On the positive side, the LaNorris Sellers + Mazeo Bennett connection worked out despite South Carolina struggling as a whole, and Keelon Russell cleared his 258.5 passing-yard line with 320 yards through the air.

For this slate, there are six numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection. So, here’s my college football Underdog picks for Week 4.

Illinois vs. Ohio State

Illinois switched to a 3-3-5 defensive structure this season, and its linebackers have struggled with missed tackles, resulting in a significant amount of yards after contact allowed.

Per Sports Info Solutions, Illinois allowed 4.6 yards after contact against Duke and 3.0 against UAB.

Ohio State has only had one true test this season, and that came against Texas. In that matchup, Bo Jackson outsnapped the second running back 42-21 and handled 23 total touches.

Texas was able to limit his efficiency, but Illinois doesn’t have the bodies up front to replicate that performance.

Neither Duke nor UAB possesses a receiving threat like Jeremiah Smith, whose presence should prevent Illinois from consistently loading the box.

That should create lighter fronts and more opportunities for Jackson to take advantage of a defense that’s struggled to tackle and limit yards after contact.

Pick: Ohio State RB Bo Jackson Higher Than 79.5 Rushing Yards

Colorado vs. Baylor

DeKalon Taylor has recorded at least 15 receiving yards in both games he’s played this season, with much of that production coming on designed screens.

He’s capable of creating after the catch and gets work in the two-minute offense, which should lead to a significant increase in snaps if Colorado finds itself in a negative game script.

The Colorado backfield is also a bit banged up, with Damian Henderson II and JaQuail Smith dealing with injuries.

The Buffs’ key transfer portal addition — Danny Scudero — is also unavailable for this game, creating an opportunity for Taylor to see an expanded role.

Pick: Colorado RB DeKalon Taylor Higher Than 8.5 Receiving Yards

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UCLA vs. Maryland

Maryland runs a lot of single-high coverage, and Brian Rowe Jr. has commanded a 30% target share against those looks this season.

I expect Maryland to load up the box to contain Wayne Knight and the rushing attack, leaving its cornerbacks on an island against Rowe.

Rowe has cleared the 60-yard mark in two straight games despite his team’s significant rush rate.

With this game being on the road and featuring a tight spread, we should see a bit more passing volume in this matchup.

The Bruins attempted 31 passes last week, and I expect that volume to carry over here, creating another opportunity for Rowe to produce.

Pick: UCLA WR Brian Rowe Jr. Higher Than 47.5 Receiving Yards

Notre Dame vs. Purdue

Last season, CJ Carr averaged 18 yards per attempt against Purdue, and the only reason he didn’t put up massive passing numbers was that Notre Dame ran for 254 yards and scored on a kick return.

Purdue also put up 23 points in the first half, and it wouldn’t shock me if it found success again and forced Notre Dame to keep scoring.

Carr hasn’t needed to throw a ton this season, but Notre Dame’s run game hasn’t been great, and I believe the Irish will start leaning more into his passing ability.

This is a great matchup for that to happen.

If I’m stacking Carr, Micah Gilbert and Jordan Faison are the two wide outs I want to pair with him.

Pick: Notre Dame QB CJ Carr Higher Than 245.5 Passing Yards

Ole Miss vs. Florida

Traylon Ray has been battling Johntay Cook II for the WR3 role, and after his performance against LSU, I expect him to see the field more.

This is a game where I expect Ole Miss to be trailing, which should force it to throw the ball at a higher rate.

Florida will likely play a lot of zone coverage to keep its eyes on Trinidad Chambliss, and that sets up well for Ray. He’s averaged 3.67 yards per route run with a 25% target rate per route run against zone coverage.

At his price point, I love the opportunity for him to take on a bigger role in this passing attack.

Pick: Ole Miss WR Traylon Ray Higher Than 36.5 Receiving Yards

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