College football Week 2 upset watch: Arizona State will test Texas A&M
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Six college football games this week carry more upset danger than the point spreads suggest, and the slate runs from Friday night into a loaded Saturday. Each matchup gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, where 1 means the favorite is close to a lock and 10 means the underdog has a clear path to winning outright.
Some are ranked showdowns while others are overlooked spots where the line hides how close the game could get. This week’s board includes three underdog picks to win outright.
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Arizona State at Texas A&M: Upset Watch 4.5
- Spread: Texas A&M -14.5
- Total: 50.5
- Location: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 12, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)
Both teams enter 1-0 after overwhelming inferior opponents, but only Texas A&M shut out its opponent. The Aggies beat Missouri State 50-0 and held the Bears to 67 total yards, their lowest total allowed in a game since 1978.
Arizona State defeated Morgan State 70-7 behind Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley, who threw for 387 yards and six touchdowns in his Sun Devils debut. Kenny Dillingham led Arizona State to the College Football Playoff in 2024, so the program has already shown it can exceed expectations.
The spread reflects more than Kyle Field. Texas A&M owns the stronger overall roster and should pressure an Arizona State offensive line that remains a concern. However, the Sun Devils’ interior defense can prevent the Aggies from dominating on the ground and force Marcel Reed to win through the air.
Boley keeps Arizona State within reach before Texas A&M closes the game late. Texas A&M wins, 30-17.
Picks: Texas A&M SU, Arizona State +14.5 ATS, Under 50.5
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Georgia Tech at Tennessee: Upset Watch 6.5
- Spread: Tennessee -12.5
- Total: 55.5
- Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field, Atlanta, Georgia
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 12, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tennessee travels to Atlanta after a 56-9 victory over Furman in which freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon accounted for five touchdowns and the offense gained 638 yards.
Georgia Tech comes off a painful 14-13 home loss to Colorado. The Buffaloes scored the go-ahead touchdown with 37 seconds remaining, then blocked Georgia Tech’s potential winning field goal as time expired. Colorado also outrushed the Yellow Jackets 183-51, creating an obvious concern before Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop arrives.
Bishop rushed for 97 yards in Tennessee’s opener while the Volunteers averaged 7 yards per carry as a team. Tennessee should lean on that advantage during Brandon’s first college road start.
Georgia Tech quarterback Alberto Mendoza completed 17 of 23 passes for 237 yards against Colorado. His efficiency and Tennessee’s young quarterback give the Yellow Jackets a chance to stay close, but Georgia Tech must show far more on the ground. Tennessee wins, 34-24.
Picks: Tennessee SU, Georgia Tech +12.5 ATS, Over 55.5
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Arizona at BYU: Upset Watch 9
- Spread: BYU -7.5
- Total: 47.5
- Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 12, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
The only Big 12 conference game on this list carries legitimate upset potential. BYU needed double overtime to beat Arizona 33-27 in Tucson last season, and the Wildcats have enough experience at quarterback to reverse that result.
BYU opened with a 63-7 victory over Utah Tech. Bear Bachmeier accounted for four touchdowns in the first half, and the Cougars gained 521 yards without committing a turnover. Arizona’s biggest problem is its physical offensive line and deep running back group.
The Wildcats answered some questions of their own in a 35-7 victory over Northern Arizona. Their defense held NAU to minus-7 rushing yards while recording five sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Veteran quarterback Noah Fifita gives Arizona another advantage in a game likely to be decided by a few possessions.
BYU safety Raider Damuni’s knee injury also creates uncertainty in a secondary that must contain Fifita. Arizona’s defense produces the late stop it could not find last season. Arizona wins, 24-20.
Picks: Arizona SU, Arizona +7.5 ATS, Under 47.5
Rutgers at Boston College: Upset Watch 9.5
- Spread: Boston College -3.5
- Total: 54.5
- Location: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
- Kickoff: Friday, September 11, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Both teams stumbled in Week 1, turning this Friday night meeting into an immediate test of how each program responds to adversity.
Rutgers lost 37-21 at home to UMass, ending the Minutemen’s 16-game losing streak and 23-game skid against FBS opponents. Quarterback Dylan Lonergan threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed three interceptions before suffering an injury in the fourth quarter.
AJ Surace will start in his place. Surace completed 6 of 9 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown in relief, and he still has one of the Big Ten’s most dangerous receivers. K.J. Duff caught nine passes for 196 yards and all three Rutgers touchdowns against UMass.
Boston College lost 34-15 at Cincinnati and allowed 246 rushing yards. The Eagles opened as favorites of approximately 6.5 points, but that number dropped to around 3.5 despite the Rutgers quarterback change. That movement, plus Duff’s matchup against the Boston College secondary, makes Rutgers the more attractive side. Rutgers wins, 27-24.
Picks: Rutgers SU, Rutgers +3.5 ATS, Under 54.5
Navy at Florida Atlantic: Upset Watch 4
- Spread: Navy -4.5
- Total: 57.5
- Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 12, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Navy is a road favorite after opening its season with a 42-15 victory over Towson. Florida Atlantic faced a much tougher assignment and lost 66-21 at Florida.
The teams met last October, when Navy rushed for 397 yards and finished with 503 total yards in a 42-32 victory. Florida Atlantic rallied late in that game, but it never found a reliable answer for the Midshipmen’s option attack.
The Owls’ best route to an upset comes through the air. Towson completed 73% of its passes against Navy, while Florida Atlantic threw for more than 275 yards against Florida. An early Owls lead would force Navy to play from behind and could pull the Midshipmen away from their preferred game plan.
Florida Atlantic should score enough to keep the pressure on, but its defensive performance against Florida makes an outright pick difficult. Navy controls the final quarter and wins, 34-27.
Picks: Navy SU, Navy -4.5 ATS, Over 57.5
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UNLV at North Texas: Upset Watch 8
- Spread: UNLV -3
- Total: 57.5
- Location: DATCU Stadium, Denton, Texas
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 12, 3:45 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
UNLV enters its second consecutive road game after beating Hawaii 21-6 in Honolulu. The Rebels rushed for 248 yards, including 143 from Jai’Den Thomas and 89 from quarterback Jackson Arnold.
North Texas lost 52-16 at defending national champion Indiana, but the final score hid several encouraging signs. The Mean Green outgained Indiana 367-365 and moved the ball into scoring range repeatedly before settling for three field goals. Quarterback Tayven Jackson completed 22 of 28 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown.
North Texas averaged 45.1 points during its 12-2 season in 2025, but much of the program has since changed. New coach Neal Brown brought in approximately 70 newcomers for a roster that returned no starters. Indiana’s performance offered the first indication that the rebuilt offense can still move the ball.
UNLV’s travel schedule and North Texas’s home-field advantage narrow an already small gap. The Mean Green turn more drives into touchdowns this week and earn the upset, 31-27.
Picks: North Texas SU, North Texas +3 ATS, Over 57.5
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