College football Week 3 best bets, odds: My favorite wagers

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Two of Saturday night's games are really quarterback bets, and the market has only done half the math on them. UCLA is a two-touchdown favorite over Purdue behind a passer who hasn't thrown a touchdown yet this season, and UCF is a 17.5-point favorite over Georgia State in a game its starting quarterback won't play in. The books have already taken three points off UCF's spread for that injury, but the total is sitting right where it opened. Two unique matchups, two different ways to find an edge.

Here are my favorite Week 3 college football bets. Remember to check out my early Week 3 wagers article from Monday as well.

Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins (-14, 52.5)

This is head coach Bob Chesney's first Big Ten game at UCLA, taking place late Saturday night at the Rose Bowl. There's plenty to like about the Bruins right now: They're 2-0 after beating Cal 45-24 and San Diego State 28-10, Chesney has won 12 straight regular-season games dating back to his final season at James Madison, and Wayne Knight is the first Bruin ever to open his UCLA career with six touchdowns in two games.

Purdue, meanwhile, lost at home to Wake Forest in double overtime and gave up 411 yards doing it. I get why this number is 14, but look how UCLA is winning. Nico Iamaleava is 28-of-44 for 335 yards with no touchdown passes and two interceptions, and both picks came in the red zone.

Bet Purdue to cover the spread at sportsbooks right here

UCLA was tied with Cal after three quarters and scoreless with the SDSU at the half — it has done all of its separating late, outscoring its first two opponents 42-10 in the fourth quarter. Asked about the San Diego State defense, Iamaleava said, "We're still getting comfortable with each other as far as the offense and seeing what we do best."

That tracks, because Dean Kennedy, who followed Chesney from James Madison, is his third play-caller in two seasons at UCLA after Tino Sunseri was let go four games into last year and Jerry Neuheisel took over.

Purdue, on the other hand, can move the ball. QB Ryan Browne set career highs against Wake Forest by going 32-of-42 for 329 yards, Fame Ijeboi ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns, the Boilermakers put up 455 yards and erased a 23-13 deficit with 9:13 left before Wake converted a fourth-and-15 in the second overtime to win it. I don't need Purdue to win in Pasadena. I need an offense with 978 yards through two games to keep this game inside two touchdowns.

Bet: Purdue +14 (-112)

Georgia State Panthers at UCF Knights (-17.5, 50.5)

Saturday night at the Bounce House, and UCF's last tune-up before TCU comes to Orlando for the Knights' Big 12 opener. I understand the case for the over, and it's a clean one.

UCF scored 73 in its opener and ran for 360 yards doing it, Georgia State is averaging 266 passing yards and 257 rushing yards against North Carolina A&T and Kennesaw State, but I'm making this bet based on a quarterback.

Alonza Barnett III slipped in the rain on UCF's second-to-last offensive snap of the 12-7 loss at Pittsburgh. Head coach Scott Frost called the hamstring injury "fairly significant," and sources told ESPN he's expected to miss multiple weeks. Frost hasn't officially named a replacement, but Keyone Jenkins, a three-year starter at FIU with 6,721 career passing yards, is expected to get the start.

Bet under 50.5 in Georgia State-UCF game at sportsbooks

Jenkins has thrown plenty of college passes, including 1,742 yards and nine touchdowns in 10 starts last season, but he's stepping into an offense that looked like this with a healthy Barnett at Pitt: 206 total yards, 20 rushing yards on 22 carries, 4-of-13 on third down, under 24 minutes of possession and seven total points scored.

Georgia State is built to shorten the game. The Panthers ran it 47 times for 230 yards at Kennesaw State and held the ball for 37:47. Cameran Brown threw for 253 and ran for 62 more, Lanear McCrary Jr. added 101 yards on the ground and Dell McGee's defense has allowed 27 total points in two games. We make it UCF 28-15, a 43-point total, in our score-expectations model, the biggest gap between our number and the market of any total on our Week 3 board.

The crux is possessions: a visitor that wants to grind and a home quarterback making his first start in this offense is how a game stays well under 50. The market has already told you it thinks the injury matters, too. UCF opened as a 20.5-point favorite on Sunday and it's 17.5 now, three points off the spread, while the total is right back at the 50.5 it opened at.

Bet: Under 50.5 (-110)

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos