College football Week 4 best bets, odds: My favorite wagers, including a bet on Iowa-Michigan

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Two of Saturday's biggest games have been priced like the defenses are the only units taking the field. Georgia is laying two touchdowns to Oklahoma with a total of 44.5, while Michigan is laying 5.5 to Iowa with a total of 38.5. I understand why no one is rushing to bet an over against four defenses that have spent September suffocating people, but the numbers have gone too far.

I don't need either game to turn into a shootout; I need Georgia to keep scoring the way it has through three weeks, then I need Iowa and Michigan to find a fairly ordinary path into the low 20s.

Here are my favorite Week 4 college football bets. Remember to check out my early Week 3 wagers article from Monday as well.

Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (-14, 44.5)

Oklahoma has allowed 7.7 points per game (fourth-best nationally), and it just held New Mexico to 185 yards in a 14-6 win. Georgia has been almost as good, allowing 13.3 PPG and no points in the first or third quarter all season. If you want to make the case for another slow, ugly game, there is plenty of material available.

The problem is that a total of 44.5 also asks Georgia's offense to cooperate.

The Sooners can help, too. QB John Mateer has thrown for 652 yards and six touchdowns through three games, wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III has already produced a 53-yard touchdown catch, an 88-yard punt-return touchdown and a 34-yard receiving score. And that is really all the Sooners need here: not a series of full-field drives against Georgia, but one or two explosive plays, a short field or some fourth-quarter points after the Bulldogs create separation.

The Bulldogs have scored 63, 70 and 45 points, and they were ahead 38-3 at Arkansas before giving up two late touchdown drives. Quarterback Gunner Stockton has been efficient, running back Nate Frazier is expected to play after Kirby Smart called him day to day, and Oklahoma is going from New Mexico to an offense that has spent most of the season playing with a four-score lead. Georgia does not need Oklahoma's permission to push this total toward the finish line.

Bet Oklahoma-Georgia over 44.5 at sportsbooks right now

We land at 51.4 points, with Georgia at 32.5 and Oklahoma at 18.9. Even a much more conservative version of that projection gets this game over 44.5, and Georgia can do most of the work itself. Yes, Mateer has looked awful and watching the highlights of his poor decisions is funny, but it also opens a massive buy-low opportunity for a talented team.

Bet: Over 44.5 (-105)

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (-5.5, 38.5)

Iowa and Michigan staying under 40 points is going to feel automatic for a lot of bettors. Iowa leads the country in scoring defense at 4.3 PPG and is allowing 176.7 yards per game, while Michigan ranks in the top 10 nationally in passing defense, total defense, sacks and tackles for loss. Both teams can run the ball, both are comfortable winning with defense, and neither coach is going to apologize for punting. But how low is too low?

Iowa is quietly averaging 268 rushing yards per game and its offensive line has allowed only one sack. The Hawkeyes have cleared 500 total yards twice in their first three games, including 640 yards and 32 first downs against Northern Iowa without leading backs Kamari Moulton and L.J. Phillips, both of whom Kirk Ferentz sounded optimistic about getting back this week. We all watched Western Michigan run wherever it wanted in a game the Broncos should have stunned the Wolverines — I see no reason why Iowa won’t be able to do the same.

Michigan has enough on the other side to dance over this low total. QB Bryce Underwood has thrown for 504 yards and added 156 on the ground and WR J.J. Buchanan is averaging 17.7 yards per catch. A quarterback who can turn a broken third down into 20 yards changes the math on a total this low, especially at home against a defense that has not yet faced an offense with Michigan's size or athleticism.

The market opened 37.5 and has moved to 38.5, but we still need only a normal low-scoring Big Ten game to beat it. We make Michigan 23.1, Iowa 19.3, for a total of 42.4. This is not a bet against either defense; it is a bet that both offenses are better than the reputations attached to the helmets.

Bet: Over 38.5 (-105)

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