College football Week 4 picks: Florida, Clemson headline prediction market best bets

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Prediction markets across the Week 4 college football schedule include four games where the betting favorite costs less than 85 cents and two good opportunities to back an underdog at around 25 cents.

Clemson, Florida, UCLA and NC State make up the favorite side of this week’s card. Iowa State and Texas A&M are the two upset selections, with each offering a return of at least $3 for every $1 risked at the displayed prices. This article focuses on good contract values, not outright picks or calling upsets.

MORE: College GameDay reveals Week 4 destination for high-stakes unbeaten SEC clash

Clemson over California

• Friday, September 25 at 10:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi/Polymarket: 51% CLEM, 50% CAL

Clemson is a slight road favorite at the sportsbook, but the prediction market prices its trip to California like a coin flip. It’s not a big edge, but an edge for now.

Freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds settled down after a difficult start and completed 20 of 29 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown in Clemson’s 28-20 comeback win over North Carolina. Christopher Vizzina remains a player to monitor after missing that game with an elbow injury, but Reynolds showed enough to keep the offense moving.

Game on Paper ranks Clemson 54th in adjusted EPA per play and California 84th. The larger gap comes on defense. Clemson ranks 23rd in defensive EPA per play, while the Golden Bears’ offense ranks 121st and has succeeded on only 36.1% of its snaps. California quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 413 yards against Wagner, but Clemson presents a much different test.

Pick: 24-20, Clemson

Ole Miss over Florida

• Saturday, September 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi/Polymarket: 42% MISS, 58% FLA

Florida scored 44 points and gained 495 yards in its SEC-opening win at Auburn. Running back Jadan Baugh rushed for 162 yards and three touchdowns, while quarterback Aaron Philo completed 15 of 22 passes for 204 yards and another score.

Ole Miss owns the better ranking and the best win after beating LSU 32-24. However, star running back Kewan Lacy is a game-time decision because a shoulder injury knocked him out in the third quarter. He has rushed for 191 yards and four touchdowns this season.

The efficiency numbers make this nearly even. Ole Miss ranks 24th and Florida 30th in adjusted EPA per play, but Florida’s offense ranks second nationally in EPA per play. I’m not sure what the market is thinking here. A freshly invigorated Gators is tempting, but the SEC runs through Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels.

Pick: 34-27, Ole Miss

UCLA over Maryland

• Saturday, September 26 at 1:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi/Polymarket: 53% UCLA, 47% MD

UCLA’s offense broke through with 645 total yards in a 52-38 victory over Purdue. Wayne Knight rushed for 177 yards and two touchdowns, leading a ground game that produced 369 yards.

The Bruins have rushed for at least 200 yards in all three games. UCLA ranks first nationally in rushing success rate at 63.4% and sixth in overall offensive success rate. That gives UCLA a dependable way to control the game and keep Maryland quarterback Malik Washington off the field.

Washington threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns against Virginia Tech, but Maryland trailed 35-14 before scoring twice in the fourth quarter of a 35-26 loss. UCLA ranks 21st in adjusted EPA per play, compared with Maryland at No. 34. The gap is not large, but the Bruins should cost more than 53 cents as a road favorite.

Pick: 38-31, UCLA

NC State over App State

• Saturday, September 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi/Polymarket: 17% APP, 83% NCST

NC State’s 1-2 record hides how close it came to earning a road win at Vanderbilt. The Wolfpack led 24-7 before the Commodores rallied, then lost 35-31 after quarterback CJ Bailey fumbled while attempting to take an intentional safety in the closing seconds.

App State is 3-0, but its efficiency profile remains ordinary. The Mountaineers rank 109th in adjusted EPA per play, while NC State sits 67th despite playing Virginia and Vanderbilt away from home. The Wolfpack also scored 73 points and rushed for 428 yards in their only home game.

NC State has won all six previous meetings in the series. The 83-cent price leaves little room for error, but it remains slightly below what a 14-point home favorite would ordinarily cost on a moneyline. The stunning way the Wolfpack lost in Week 3 is clouding people’s judgment. App State is a solid team, but NC State is significantly better.

Pick: 31-17, NC State

MORE: Did we witness the worst loss in College Football history?

Utah over Iowa State

• Saturday, September 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi/Polymarket: 77% UTAH, 25% ISU

Utah deserves to be favored after winning its three games by a combined 109 points. Quarterback Devon Dampier threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-0 win over Utah State, and the Utes rank third nationally in both adjusted EPA per play and defensive EPA per play.

The price still gives Iowa State a chance to create value at home. The Cyclones’ defense ranks ninth in EPA per play, and running back Aiden Flora just produced 296 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns in a 55-7 win over Bowling Green. He rushed for a career-high 194 yards.

Iowa State also beat Utah 31-28 in Salt Lake City during their last meeting in 2024. The Cyclones will need Flora to generate explosive plays and their defense to force Dampier into long third downs, but a 25-cent contract understates their upset chance at Jack Trice Stadium.

Pick: 40-24, Utah

MORE: College Football Big 12 power rankings entering Week 4

LSU over Texas A&M

• Saturday, September 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi/Polymarket: 24% TAMU, 76% LSU

Texas A&M and LSU both enter the game trying to recover from SEC losses. Kentucky beat the Aggies 31-21 in College Station, while Ole Miss intercepted Sam Leavitt in the end zone to preserve a 32-24 win over LSU.

The Aggies also lost wide receiver and return specialist Terry Bussey to a season-ending lower-body injury. Bussey ranked second on the team with 92 receiving yards entering Week 3, and fellow receiver Ashton Bethel-Roman missed the Kentucky game.

Even with those concerns, Texas A&M’s defense gives it an upset path. The Aggies rank fifth nationally in defensive EPA per play and sixth in defensive success rate. LSU has the stronger overall profile, but Leavitt has thrown five interceptions in three games.

Texas A&M also won last year’s meeting 49-25, making 24 cents an appealing price in a rivalry that has already produced volatility. I believe Lane Kiffin and the Tigers win, but this is a good value contract to take a chance on a market taking a big downturn on TAMU.

Pick: 27-24, LSU

— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos