College football Week 4 upset watch: Penn State, Florida, USC face risk at home
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College football‘s Week 4 schedule features the most ranked matchups on a single day in AP poll history, and several of those games put a favorite at risk of an upset.
We’re highlighting six conference games during Saturday’s afternoon slate. Each matchup gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, where 1 means the favorite is close to a lock and 10 means the underdog has a clear path to winning outright.
Five more games with upset potential are graded in a new section at the bottom. Hat tip to Game On Paper for a lot of the advanced stats used in this article.
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Oklahoma at Georgia (-13.5): Upset Watch 4
- Total: 44.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
No. 2 Georgia is 3-0 and has scored at least 45 points and gained more than 450 yards in every game. The Bulldogs lead the SEC with 59.3 points per game, and quarterback Gunner Stockton runs an offense that ranks fourth nationally in expected points added per play.
Oklahoma fell out of the AP Top 25 after a 17-10 loss at Michigan and a 14-6 win over New Mexico. The Sooners ran for 61 yards on 32 carries against the Lobos, and quarterback John Mateer threw two interceptions. Oklahoma ranks 110th in expected points added per rush and 115th in net field position.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables still has one of the country’s best defenses. The Sooners rank fifth in expected points added per play allowed and second in success rate allowed. However, star defensive tackle David Stone is questionable after he dislocated his kneecap in practice Monday. Venables said Stone’s knee “kind of popped out” when he collided with a scout team player.
Georgia also converts 68.2% of its third and fourth downs, the second-best rate in the nation. So an Oklahoma offense that can’t run the ball won’t keep the Bulldogs off the field long enough to pull the upset. Still, the Sooners’ defense keeps this game under the total.
Picks: Georgia 28-10, Georgia -13.5 ATS, Under 44.5
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Ole Miss (+3.5) at Florida: Upset Watch 9
- Total: 59.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
No. 4 Ole Miss is a road underdog after it beat LSU 32-24 last week. No. 21 Florida is also 3-0 after a 44-39 win at Auburn, where running back Jadan Baugh ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns. Baugh has 458 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season.
The Gators’ offense ranks second nationally in expected points added per play and third in expected points added per pass. That’s a problem for an Ole Miss team that will be without five defensive backs. Cornerbacks Cedrick Beavers, Dorian Barney and Victor Lincoln Jr. are out, along with safeties MJ Preston and Craig Tutt.
Rebels running back Kewan Lacy is also questionable with a shoulder injury. He has 191 rushing yards and four touchdowns. “It wasn’t nearly as bad as we thought it was,” Ole Miss coach Pete Golding said.
Still, the Florida defense has struggled to stop the run. The Gators rank 126th in expected points added per rush allowed and 125th in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed. Ole Miss ranks 17th in expected points added per rush, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss leads an offense that ranks 10th in opponent-adjusted expected points added per play.
Ole Miss beat Florida 34-24 in Oxford last season. The Rebels’ run game against a Florida defense that can’t get off the field makes Ole Miss the pick in a shootout.
Picks: Ole Miss 34-27, Ole Miss +3.5 ATS, Over 59.5
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Vanderbilt (+9.5) at Auburn: Upset Watch 7
- Total: 55.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Vanderbilt is 3-0, but it needed a wild finish last week. The Commodores trailed NC State by 17 points several times, then recovered a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown as the Wolfpack tried to run out the clock. Vanderbilt led for only the final second of its 35-31 win.
Freshman quarterback Jared Curtis accounted for 341 total yards in that game, his first career start. Saturday is his first road game. “He’s really special,” Auburn coach Alex Golesh said. “We’ve got to take advantage of whatever freshman moments there are.”
Auburn is 2-1 and 0-1 in SEC play after a 44-39 loss to Florida. Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in that game and ran for another score. He has accounted for 101 career touchdowns, nine more than any other active FBS player.
The advanced stats rate these teams almost evenly. Vanderbilt ranks 100th, and Auburn ranks 99th in opponent-adjusted expected points added per play. The Commodores rank 10th in expected points added per rush and fifth in average starting field position, while Auburn’s defense ranks 91st in opponent-adjusted expected points added per play allowed.
Vanderbilt also won the last two meetings, 45-38 in overtime last season and 17-7 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2024. Brown and a homecoming crowd help Auburn hold on, but 9.5 points is too many against a Vanderbilt team that has beaten the Tigers twice in a row.
Picks: Auburn 31-28, Vanderbilt +9.5 ATS, Over 55.5
MORE: College Football SEC power rankings entering Week 4
Wisconsin (+10) at Penn State: Upset Watch 6
- Total: 44.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 5 p.m. ET (Peacock)
No. 13 Penn State is 3-0 under first-year coach Matt Campbell, but it hasn’t played a Power 4 opponent yet. The Nittany Lions beat Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. Quarterback Rocco Becht, who followed Campbell from Iowa State, has thrown for 751 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
Wisconsin is 2-1 under coach Luke Fickell. Notre Dame led the Badgers 13-10 at halftime of the opener before it pulled away for a 41-13 win at Lambeau Field. Since then, Wisconsin beat Western Illinois 36-9 and Eastern Michigan 54-10. Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph threw for 362 yards and three touchdowns against Eastern Michigan, and receiver Tyrell Henry set a school record with 14 catches.
Wisconsin ranks seventh nationally in opponent-adjusted expected points added per play, while Penn State ranks 56th. The Badgers also rank sixth in passing success rate. However, their run game ranks 91st in success rate, and running back Abu Sama III missed the game against Eastern Michigan.
Penn State’s defense is the biggest obstacle. The Nittany Lions rank third in expected points added per pass allowed, and they hold opponents to a 25% success rate on third and fourth downs, fourth-best in the country. They also rank third in net field position.
Penn State has won six straight meetings, and Wisconsin’s last win in the series came in 2011. Rain is possible around kickoff, which favors both defenses. Still, Joseph and the Wisconsin passing game keep this within one score.
Picks: Penn State 24-20, Wisconsin +10 ATS, Under 44.5
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Texas A&M (+9.5) at LSU: Upset Watch 5
- Total: 51.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
No. 23 Texas A&M and No. 10 LSU are both 2-1 after SEC losses last week. Kentucky beat the Aggies 31-21 in College Station, while Ole Miss intercepted LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt in the end zone to hold on for a 32-24 win.
Leavitt has thrown three touchdown passes and five interceptions this season. LSU’s offense ranks 61st in expected points added per play, and injuries are piling up. Safety Dashawn Spears tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season, and tight end Trey’Dez Green’s timeline after a lower-body injury is unclear. “The depth is an issue,” LSU coach Lane Kiffin said.
The LSU defense still gives the Tigers the edge. It ranks fourth in expected points added per play allowed, fifth in expected points added per rush allowed and fifth in available yards percentage allowed.
Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed threw for 236 yards with two interceptions against Kentucky. Texas A&M also lost receiver Terry Bussey to a season-ending injury, and receiver Ashton Bethel-Roman is questionable. However, the Aggies rank 13th in rushing success rate, and their defense ranks eighth in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed.
Texas A&M won last year’s meeting 49-25 in Baton Rouge. LSU’s defense wins at home, but Leavitt’s turnovers keep the Aggies close.
Picks: LSU 27-24, Texas A&M +9.5 ATS, Under 51.5
MORE: College Football Playoff odds entering Week 4: Texas begins gauntlet
Oregon at USC (+3): Upset Watch 10
- Total: 61.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
No. 12 USC is 4-0 after a 42-35 win at Rutgers, and it hasn’t scored fewer than 39 points in any game. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the country with 1,173 passing yards, and he has 12 touchdowns against one interception.
USC’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate and fifth in third- and fourth-down success rate. However, its defense ranks 99th in expected points added per play allowed and 103rd in success rate allowed. The Trojans will also likely be without freshman receiver Trent Mosley, who is doubtful with a knee injury.
No. 20 Oregon lost 39-31 at Oklahoma State and then beat Portland State 84-0. Ducks quarterback Dante Moore went 14 of 29 for 191 yards in Stillwater, and Oregon ranks 124th in third- and fourth-down success rate. Receiver Jeremiah McClellan is out with a broken foot, and tight end Jamari Johnson is questionable.
Still, the Oregon defense ranks 17th in expected points added per pass allowed. Oregon has also won the last four meetings, including 42-27 last season.
Two shaky defenses point to the over. USC coach Lincoln Riley’s offense keeps this game within a field goal at the Coliseum, but Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s pass defense gets one late stop to win it.
Picks: Oregon 34-33, USC +3 ATS, Over 61.5
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More Week 4 upset watch games
- Clemson (-1.5) at California: Upset Watch 9 (Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET). Freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds led a 28-20 comeback win over North Carolina, but prediction markets price this road trip close to a coin flip.
- Texas (-4.5) at Tennessee: Upset Watch 7 (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET). No. 1 Texas makes its first road trip of the season to face No. 14 Tennessee, and both teams are 3-0.
- Iowa (+5.5) at Michigan: Upset Watch 10 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET). No. 17 Iowa visits No. 18 Michigan in a game with a 38.5-point total, the lowest of any matchup in this article.
- Utah (-7.5) at Iowa State: Upset Watch 6 (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET). No. 15 Utah won its first three games by a combined 109 points, but Iowa State won 31-28 in Salt Lake City in the last meeting in 2024.
- South Carolina (+12.5) at Alabama: Upset Watch 4 (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET). No. 8 Alabama won the last two meetings by 2 and 7 points, and South Carolina is tied for fourth nationally in rushing success rate.
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