College football Week 6 picks, odds: 2 best bets for this weekend's games
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The market spent this week pricing the Florida team that ran for 302 yards on Ole Miss and the App State squad that scored 55 on Maine, and it has been slow to price the games that those two teams actually played last.
Florida was held to 42 rushing yards and 17 points at Missouri, and the total in Gainesville has come down from 62 to 59.5 since Monday without the number ever catching up to what that game looked like. App State blew a 21-point lead at NC State, sat on a bye and comes back as a 9.5-point favorite against an Old Dominion team that used three quarterbacks in a 42-10 loss.
Those games contain two of my favorite Week 6 college football bets.
South Carolina at No. 16 Florida (-11.5, 59.5)
Seven of the 10 games these two teams have played went over 59.5 points, every SEC game among them, so I understand why this total was 62 on Monday.
Florida is averaging 46.2 points a game and has played in games that finished with 87, 83 and 80 points. South Carolina has been in three straight that had 75, 67 and 69, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers just ran for 147 yards on 17 carries against Kentucky. If Florida brings the offense that ran for 243 at Auburn and 302 against Ole Miss, this is a sweat from the first drive, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.
But that is the question this number has to answer, because the market is still pricing a Florida offense that did not show up in Columbia.
The Gators are 11.5-point favorites at a total of 59.5, which implies something like 35 points from an offense that ran 12 times for 13 yards with RB Jadan Baugh at Missouri, converted 6-of-16 third downs and got 197 passing yards from QB Aaron Philo in a 45-17 loss, the kind of afternoon that had Baugh texting head coach Jon Sumrall an apology on Sunday.
Florida's offense is the run game (No. 8 on our board at 3.9 points per drive against FBS teams), and both of its big SEC scores came with 240-plus rushing yards. South Carolina hasn't allowed 140 rushing yards to any team this season, and our deserved-points model says the Gamecocks have earned about three points a game more than their results show. That is a big part of why we make this Florida by five (30-25), and not a double-digit game.
The other half of the scoreboard is where the market leaves the most on the table. South Carolina's offense ranks No. 23 on our board — 2.9 points per drive and 6.9 YPP against FBS teams — but it scored 18 at Alabama and needed Sellers to run for 147 yards to get to 34 points at home against Kentucky. Dylan Stewart's status for Saturday is still up in the air as well. Florida's defense ranks No. 73 on our board (allowing 27.2 PPG), and we have South Carolina at 25 here — about what the market implies — so our disagreement is almost entirely about how many points the Florida offense is currently worth.
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Then there is the setting. This is a 12:45 p.m. ET kick in Gainesville with a forecast of 86 degrees at kickoff climbing past 90, a 10 mph wind and a rain chance that jumps to 79% by mid-afternoon. Florida also plays slow (92nd in seconds per snap), which means fewer possessions whenever the Gators have the lead.
We make this total 55.2. The market opened it at 57.5, pushed it to 62 by Monday on the strength of what Florida did to Ole Miss, and has been walking it back since: 60.5 on Wednesday afternoon and 59.5 overnight, and I think it has further to go. Florida needs 35 points for this to get over with South Carolina scoring what we project, and the two times the Gators got there in SEC play they ran for 243 and 302 yards, while the one defense that took the run away held them to 17.
Bet: Under 59.5 (-108)
Old Dominion at App State (-9.5, 48.5)
A side has to clear a higher bar than a total for me, and this one does, but just barely, so it is the smaller play of the two. App State opened as a 9.5-point favorite and has not moved. We make this game App State by 11 (30-19), which is enough of a gap to lay the points with a Sun Belt favorite coming off a bye.
The case against laying 9.5 starts with App State's own defense, which ranks No. 96 on our board and gave up 41 the last time out. The weather is the other thing working against a big number. The forecast is for 47 degrees, steady light rain and gusts into the 30s, and the total has already come down from 51.5 to 48.5; our model shaved close to four points off this game for the conditions alone. A 9.5-point favorite in that forecast has to win something like 27-17, which is why I would rather have this at 9.5 now than wait for a bigger number.
Bet on App State to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now
What makes it playable is Old Dominion. The Monarchs are 1-4, they have been outscored 88-30 in their two Sun Belt games and the offense ranks No. 120 of 138 on our board. QB Quinn Henicle has carried a questionable tag since late September, while Ryan Huff took the snaps in the James Madison game and threw for 261 yards in a 46-20 loss. On Saturday, ODU rotated Henicle, Huff and Jaxon Potter for a combined 13-of-28 for 79 yards while Georgia State QB Cameran Brown threw a school-record six touchdown passes against them. Old Dominion plays fast, No. 22 in seconds per snap, and pace only matters if the drives are worth something.
App State has the offense to make the possessions count. QB Malachi Singleton threw for 331 yards against Charlotte and 317 at NC State, and the offense has earned one of the 15 biggest in-season upgrades in our ratings. Our deserved-points model says App State has been flattered by about a point a game while Old Dominion's results have run about two points worse than it earned. Our 30-19 projected score is App State by 11 with the weather already priced in, and against an offense that produced 10 points in its last game, I'll take the 9.5 at -105 while it lasts.
Bet: App State -9.5 (-105)
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