College football Week 6 upset watch: UCLA, Florida State, Nebraska push favorites
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Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola’s first start for the Ducks leads college football’s Week 6 upset watch, as No. 21 UCLA brings a 4-0 record to Autzen Stadium and five more favorites face danger from Friday night in Louisville through Saturday afternoon.
The No. 13 Ducks listed starting quarterback Dante Moore as out on Wednesday’s Big Ten availability report while he recovers from a concussion, and Oregon is an 11.5-point favorite. UCLA hasn’t won at Autzen Stadium since 2004.
Each game gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, with 10 meaning the underdog has the clearest path to an outright win. Six more games get shorter grades in the final section. Hat tip to Game On Paper for many of the advanced stats used in this article.
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Florida State at Louisville (-3.5): Upset Watch 8
- Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 9, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Florida State opened as a 5.5-point underdog after its 38-7 win over Virginia, and the line has since dropped to 3.5 points. Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels ran for five touchdowns in that game, while the defense recorded 10 sacks and stopped Virginia on all four of its fourth-down attempts.
Louisville coach Jeff Brohm has already seen Daniels, back when the quarterback played at Stanford. “We faced him at Stanford; unfortunately, it wasn’t a good day for us,” Brohm said Monday.
The Cardinals (2-3, 1-2 ACC) have dropped consecutive one-score games to Wake Forest and NC State, but they still average 38.6 points per game. Florida State coach Mike Norvell, who landed on CFB HQ’s hot seat index, isn’t reading much into that record. “This is probably the best three-loss team in the country,” Norvell said.
Florida State has scored on all 21 of its red-zone trips this season, so the Seminoles can keep pace. Still, a short week, a road trip and a Louisville offense that has gone over the total in four of five games point to a high-scoring Cardinals win.
Picks: Louisville 33-28, Louisville -3.5, Over 59.5
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Indiana at Nebraska (+7.5): Upset Watch 6.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, noon ET (Fox)
“The quarterback I know well,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said Monday of Nebraska’s Anthony Colandrea.
Cignetti’s James Madison team beat Colandrea and Virginia 36-35 in 2023, when the then-freshman threw for 377 yards. The Huskers’ starter now has 1,142 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, and he ran for 108 yards in last week’s 48-23 win over Maryland. Nebraska is off to its first 5-0 start since 2016 and averages 231 rushing yards per game.
Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Lincoln, where Memorial Stadium hosts a defending national champion for the first time since 2006. No. 7 Indiana has won 21 straight games and piled up 593 yards in a 47-15 win at Rutgers last week.
Nebraska coach Matt Rhule went 0-8 against ranked teams in his first three seasons, and the Hoosiers beat the Huskers 56-7 in 2024. Cignetti also pointed to a defense that has rarely bent this season. “I think we’re giving up 10 points a game maybe,” he said.
That defense keeps Colandrea from turning this into a shootout, but Nebraska’s ground game keeps it within one score.
Picks: Indiana 27-20, Nebraska +7.5, Under 47.5
Texas A&M at Missouri (-3.5): Upset Watch 6
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, noon ET (ABC)
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz entered the season 0-3 against Texas A&M, including a 38-17 home loss last year. The SEC’s new scheduling format sends the Aggies back to Columbia for a second straight season.
No. 14 Missouri (4-1, 1-1 SEC) is coming off a 45-17 rout of then-No. 8 Florida. The Tigers piled up 560 total yards, recorded 11 tackles for loss and held Florida’s leading rusher to 13 yards on 12 carries.
Texas A&M (3-2, 1-2) fell out of the AP Top 25 after losses to Kentucky and LSU, and Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed has thrown four interceptions. However, the Aggies ran for 231 yards in a 34-7 win over Arkansas last week, and Reed added 66 rushing yards.
“He’s gotten his confidence back, and they’re back into a rhythm offensively,” Drinkwitz said Tuesday.
Texas A&M coach Mike Elko wants Reed playing the same way in Columbia. “When he gets an opportunity to play the game that way, to be free and loose, and be able to use his legs, (they are) a huge weapon for him,” Elko said.
Both offenses ran the ball well last week, which supports the over. Missouri’s defensive front decides it at home, where Drinkwitz entered the season 33-9, the best home winning percentage in program history.
Picks: Missouri 28-21, Missouri -3.5, Over 48.5
UCF (+10.5) at Oklahoma State: Upset Watch 4
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, noon ET (ESPN2)
UCF listed eight players as out on its availability report, including starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury. “I don’t think it’ll happen this week,” Knights coach Scott Frost said of Barnett’s return.
Backup Keyone Jenkins played through a high ankle sprain and cramps in last week’s 27-17 loss at then-No. 20 Houston, and third-stringer Kaleb Annett had to finish one drive. UCF led that game 17-0 in the third quarter.
UCF beat Oklahoma State 45-3 in 2023 and 17-14 last season, so the Cowboys are still chasing their first win in the series. No. 18 Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) is coming off a bye after a 41-24 win at West Virginia, and first-year Cowboys coach Eric Morris spent the week studying the Knights’ defense.
“Their defense has been playing at a really high level, not many people have been able to stop them,” Morris said.
“We put ourselves in position to have a chance to win two games against really good opponents on the road,” Frost said. A depleted UCF roster loses this one, but its defense keeps the score low enough to cover.
Picks: Oklahoma State 31-21, UCF +10.5, Under 53.5
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South Carolina (+11.5) at Florida: Upset Watch 5.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, 12:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Florida running back Jadan Baugh texted his coach the day after the loss at Missouri: “Coach, I’m sorry. I won’t let that ever happen again.”
Florida coach Jon Sumrall didn’t hide his own reaction after his first loss in Gainesville’s top job. “I’m sick to my freakin’ stomach with what we just did. Like, livid,” Sumrall said.
The No. 16 Gators (4-1, 2-1 SEC) ran for 42 yards in Columbia after averaging 260 per game. Their pass defense allows nearly 267 yards per game, the most in the SEC.
South Carolina (2-3, 0-3) blew a 17-0 lead in a 35-34 overtime loss to Kentucky and was booed off its home field. Still, Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers threw for 226 yards and ran for 147. “LaNorris responded the right way,” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said. Edge rusher Dylan Stewart returned to practice after a one-game suspension, but his status is unclear.
Gainesville also sits inside Hurricane Isaias’ rain shield, and Florida practiced with wet footballs Tuesday. Florida has won 17 of 19 home meetings with South Carolina. Sellers’ legs against a leaky secondary keep the Gamecocks inside the number and push the total over.
Picks: Florida 35-27, South Carolina +11.5, Over 58.5
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UCLA (+11.5) at Oregon: Upset Watch 9.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 10, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
Raiola has already won a big road game for Oregon. After Moore left the USC game, the former Nebraska starter threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-27 win.
UCLA coach Bob Chesney isn’t expecting much of a drop-off. “The other guy’s not bad, right?” Chesney said of Raiola.
The Bruins are 4-0 after a 54-3 rout of Maryland. They average 281.5 rushing yards and 44.8 points per game. UCLA also has eight interceptions and 12 takeaways, while Oregon’s quarterbacks haven’t thrown an interception in 145 attempts.
This matchup is a rematch for Chesney and 11 transfers who followed him from James Madison. The Dukes faced Oregon 10 months ago. A win would make Chesney UCLA’s first coach to start his tenure 5-0. It would also give the Bruins their first road win over a ranked Oregon team.
“They understand they’re going to need to play a near-perfect game,” Chesney said.
Oregon allows 113 rushing yards per game, and that defensive front holds off UCLA’s ground game just long enough at home. Both offenses still score enough to clear the total.
Picks: Oregon 31-30, UCLA +11.5, Over 59.5
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More upset watches
- North Carolina (+3.5) at Pittsburgh: Upset Watch 8. No. 25 Pitt is 5-0 but turns to backup quarterback Holden Geriner after an injury to starter Mason Heintschel. North Carolina coach Bill Belichick is still chasing his first ranked win with the Tar Heels after losses to Clemson and Notre Dame.
- Tulane at Army (-3): Upset Watch 8.5. Tulane opens its American title defense with an unsettled quarterback room and an offense averaging 18.8 points per game. Army has drawn only 16 flags this season, the fewest in the conference.
- Central Michigan (+3) at Ohio: Upset Watch 9.5. Ohio brings a 15-game home winning streak into homecoming under first-year coach John Hauser. Central Michigan has six interceptions and eight sacks, and a win would give the Chippewas their first 2-0 MAC start since 2009 outside the 2020 season.
- North Dakota State at UNLV (+3): Upset Watch 10. North Dakota State is 5-0 in its first FBS season, and this is the first meeting between the programs. UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold leads the Mountain West with 13 total touchdowns.
- Coastal Carolina at Marshall (-4): Upset Watch 7. Marshall allowed 310 rushing yards in a 45-17 loss to James Madison, and its three wins came by a combined nine points. Coastal Carolina is 1-4 after a 31-24 home loss to Georgia Southern.
- Louisiana at Louisiana Tech (-3): Upset Watch 4.5. The 88th meeting is the first conference game between the in-state rivals since 1995. Louisiana is 4-1 but has lost eight straight in the series since a 1996 win.
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