College football winners and losers: Losses by LSU and Texas A&M make Week 4 an already pivotal Saturday in the playoff race

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Week 4 is shaping up to be an incredibly important week for the College Football Playoff.

It seems absurd to seriously think about the playoff before the calendar hits October. But No. 21 Oregon's visit to No. 12 USC and No. 9 Texas A&M's visit to No. 7 LSU are games that the selection committee could be referring to when deciding who's in and out in December.

We knew that one top-10 team in the SEC was going to lose in Week 3 as the Tigers visited No. 8 Ole Miss. And the Rebels got a 32-24 victory after LSU scored 17 straight to open the second half and tie the game.

LSU won't drop too far in Sunday's AP poll, but it now has very little margin for playoff error going forward. And it's facing a team that is in the same scenario three weeks into the season.

The Aggies entered Saturday as 17-point favorites over a Kentucky team that gave up 32 straight to Alabama in the second half of its Week 2 loss. The Wildcats were the more physical team on Saturday and pushed the Aggies around. The 31-21 win even led to Texas A&M coach Mike Elko immediately telling new Kentucky coach Will Stein that UK kicked the Aggies' butts in their postgame handshake.

Now, Texas A&M gets to go to Death Valley for a prime-time game. Whoever loses will be 2-2 and will probably have to go undefeated the rest of the way to make the playoff.

Yes, Alabama made the playoff at 10-3 a season ago. But the Tide's last loss of the season came in the SEC championship game. No team with three regular-season losses has made the 12-team playoff as an at-large through the first three seasons of the expanded playoff.

That could change in 2026. But neither LSU nor Texas A&M wants to bet on that.

The Aggies especially should be worried about their playoff fate. After making the playoff for the first time a year ago, they returned a roster capable of getting back to the playoff again. But Texas A&M’s schedule required it to win games against unranked opponents like Kentucky.

After LSU, five of Texas A&M's final eight games are against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25. And that group of teams includes three currently ranked in the top 15.

Oregon rebounded from its shocking loss to Oklahoma State in Week 2 with a program-record 84 points on Friday night against Portland State. And while the total was impressive — and likely cathartic for a Ducks program that dealt with many people watching the team's offensive film to see how obvious their tendencies were — it also came against an FCS opponent. Just three years ago, Oregon set its previous points record against that same team.

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

A loss to USC would put Oregon in a brutal playoff position, especially with a trip to Ohio State to come in November.

USC, meanwhile, can't afford the loss either. Not only do the Trojans have the Buckeyes on their schedule, but they have trips to No. 14 Penn State and No. 4 Indiana later in the season. Even if Oregon is ranked outside the top 10, this is the type of game Lincoln Riley's team needs to win to change the narrative around its competitiveness in the Big Ten.

Week 3 seemed massive because of the circus surrounding Lane Kiffin's return to Ole Miss. But what transpired on the field in Oxford and elsewhere on Saturday makes Week 4 even bigger. We can't wait.

Here are the rest of this week's winners and losers.

Winners

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs were outscored 13-0 by South Carolina in the first quarter on Saturday. They proceeded to go on a 41-10 run to put the game away in a 41-34 victory. MSU is now 3-0 as Kamario Taylor continues his star turn. The sophomore QB was 18-of-26 passing for 251 yards and four touchdowns and one interception and rushed eight times for 33 yards. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers threw two second-half interceptions and Mississippi State turned those turnovers into 10 points. The Bulldogs host No. 20 Missouri in Week 4 before Alabama visits to start October. Can Mississippi State be 4-0 when the Tide come to town?

Cincinnati: The Bearcats had an even bigger comeback win. Cincy was down 28-7 at halftime to Miami (Ohio) before outscoring the RedHawks 28-3 in the second half for a 35-31 win. Cole Tabb's 53-yard run with 1:29 to go turned out to be the game-winning score after Cincinnati was down by 10 with 13:51 remaining.

Georgia Southern transfer QB JC French IV was 31-of-43 passing for 309 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for another. The Bearcats have a fourth straight home game in Week 4 and it's their toughest test yet as Kansas State comes to town.

Toledo: The Rockets scoff at the comebacks Cincinnati and Mississippi State had. Toledo trailed Temple 42-28 with 6:40 to go and then turned the ball over on downs with 4:40 to go after Adjatay Dabbs was ruled short of the line to gain on fourth down.

Toledo's defense was able to force a three-and-out and then the fun happened. The Rockets went on a 10-play, 83-yard drive to cut the lead to seven with 1:05 to go. An onside kick was needed and, guess what? Toledo recovered that. Two plays later, John Alan Richter connected with Daryl Barnett Jr. for a 23-yard TD that tied the game with 54 seconds to go.

Toledo got the ball first in overtime and scored a touchdown in two plays. And so did Temple. But the Owls decided they wanted no more overtime and went for two. However, Ajani Sheppard's pass fell incomplete, and Toledo won 49-48.

Louisville: Are the Cardinals the biggest threat to Miami in the ACC? Louisville made a huge step toward the ACC title game with a 41-31 win over SMU. Lincoln Kienholz threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as the Cardinals rushed 37 times for 265 yards. SMU rushed for 257 yards itself, but Kevin Jennings threw two interceptions and also fumbled just short of the goal line when it appeared he had cut Louisville's lead to three pending the extra point with 2:53 to go.

Louisville and Miami do not play each other in the regular season and the Cardinals do not have a team in the AP Top 25 remaining on their schedule after games against Ole Miss and SMU in the first three weeks. It's not a stretch to think that Louisville will be favored in every game the rest of the season.

West Virginia QB Michael Hawkins: The Oklahoma transfer had the best game of his college career on Saturday night in the Mountaineers' 38-27 win over No. 25 Virginia. Hawkins was 10-of-17 passing for 190 yards and two touchdowns while rushing 18 times for 123 yards and three scores. West Virginia is now 3-0 ahead of Big 12 play and has a chance to be a sleeper mid-pack team in the conference.

Losers

NC State: It's impossible to not start this category with the Wolfpack, who fell to 1-2 in the most absurd fashion on Saturday afternoon. The thought process behind NC State's penultimate offensive play made sense. The execution did not.

With six seconds to go and the ball at its own 5-yard line, the play was for QB CJ Bailey to run into the end zone and take a sack as time expired. Given NC State was leading 31-28, the safety would cut the lead to one but still preserve the win.

By now, you know that Bailey's retreat to the end zone did not result in a safety. He fumbled the ball as he got hit and Vanderbilt recovered in the end zone for a 35-31 win.

Should Bailey have dropped to the ground sooner? Could he have thrown it away? Did the new NCAA rule giving an untimed down to a punt returner who makes a fair catch as time expires play a role in the decision for Bailey to take the sack?

All those questions are fair. And it's a play that other coaches will assuredly be sharing with their teams for the foreseeable future as an example of how not to execute a clock-killer at the end of the game.

Colorado: Any good vibes leftover from Colorado's Week 1 win over Georgia Tech disappeared in a 41-7 drubbing at Northwestern. Wildcats QB Aidan Chiles had five total touchdowns as he went 17-of-22 passing for 241 yards and three scores and rushed for two other touchdowns. The Buffs turned the ball over four times: JuJu Lewis threw two interceptions and Colorado's running backs fumbled twice. Big 12 play begins in Week 4 with a trip to Baylor, and then Texas Tech and Utah visit Boulder. The Buffs could be 2-4 ahead of Oklahoma State's visit on Oct. 24.

Kansas: The Jayhawks are also 1-2 after turning the ball over three times and failing on all three of their fourth-down attempts in a 24-17 loss to Arizona State in London.

The pivotal sequence came late in the first half. Matthew Gill was punting out of his own end zone but his punt went just 17 yards before going out of bounds with 25 seconds to go and KU leading 7-3. The poor punt gave ASU the ball at the KU 25-yard line and the Sun Devils scored on their first offensive play.

And ASU scored again to start the third quarter when Jaren Hamilton returned the second-half kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. What was a four-point lead turned into a 10-point deficit, and Kansas was never able to recover.

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