College Football's Biggest Trap Games for Playoff Contenders in 2026
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Unexpected results and upsets are a staple of every college football season. No team’s path to a playoff spot, conference title or bowl berth ever goes according to plan or matches preseason predictions. Trap games play a massive role in shaping how the season plays out, as upsets or tougher-than-expected matchups could significantly alter how difficult a schedule appears or deal an early or late setback to a team’s playoff hopes.
Don’t expect the trend of upsets or surprise results in a season to change in 2026. Top contenders in Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Indiana or Oregon all have tough road trips or stretches that could make or break the season.
A “trap game” doesn’t mean the favorite will lose that contest. However, by our definition, the timing or location makes these contests tougher than some may expect.
An important note: These aren’t projected losses or guaranteed upset picks, but more about examining which games could be more difficult than some might anticipate due to timing, schedule, road trip or other factors that might align leading up to the matchup.
Using the top 16 teams from Athlon Sports’ rankings in ’26, let’s project the biggest trap games for the playoff contenders in ’26.
Conference Predictions for 2026
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College Football’s Biggest Trap Games for Playoff Contenders in 2026
1. Ohio State: Nov. 21 at Nebraska
With matchups against top-10 teams in Indiana, Texas and Oregon, Ohio State faces one of the toughest slates in college football. The Buckeyes will be a heavy favorite in Lincoln, but there’s always the danger of a lookahead with Michigan on deck the following Saturday.
2. Georgia: Nov. 21 at South Carolina
Kirby Smart’s team has a favorable overall path back to the College Football Playoff in 2026. However, South Carolina is usually good for an upset at home under coach Shane Beamer. This late-season meeting in Columbia could be interesting if quarterback LaNorris Sellers regains his ‘24 form.
3. Texas: Nov. 7 at Missouri
This trip to Missouri marks the first of three key road games in November for coach Steve Sarkisian’s team. Following this matchup, the Longhorns play at LSU (Nov. 14) and then meet rival Texas A&M in College Station (Nov. 27). Texas cannot afford to look beyond a Missouri team featuring star running back Ahmad Hardy (if healthy) and a rising star quarterback in Austin Simmons.
4. Notre Dame: Nov. 28 at Syracuse
With a relatively manageable overall schedule, finding an obvious trap game for the Fighting Irish isn’t easy. A road matchup at BYU is one of the toughest contests on Notre Dame’s ’26 slate, so let’s look beyond that date for another game that could be tricky for coach Marcus Freeman’s team. Could the season finale at Syracuse present more of a challenge than most expect? The Orange have displayed an ability to punch above their weight under coach Fran Brown, and former Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli will be eager to get revenge against his former squad.
5. Indiana: Oct. 10 at Nebraska
A trip to Lincoln before a home matchup against Ohio State and then a road date at Michigan (Oct. 24) is a tough spot for coach Curt Cignetti’s team. However, the Hoosiers are still likely to be a significant favorite here.
Related: College Football’s 2026 All-America Team
6. Oregon: Nov. 21 at Michigan State
There’s not a glaring (or easy) trap game pick for Oregon. With a revamped roster and a new coach in Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan State should improve throughout the ‘26 season. The Ducks get a road game at Ohio State (Nov. 7) and play Michigan (Nov. 14) and Washington (Nov. 28) at home in November. This trip to East Lansing—potentially in tough weather elements—is the only road date in that stretch.
7. Miami: Oct. 31 at North Carolina
Outside of the Nov. 7 contest at Notre Dame, Miami is likely to be favored in all of its games in 2026. It’s tough to find an obvious trap game for the Hurricanes, but coach Mario Cristobal’s team travels to Chapel Hill before that massive showdown against the Fighting Irish.
8. Oklahoma: Nov. 7 at Florida
With massive home showdowns that could factor heavily into playoff positioning against Ole Miss (Nov. 14) and Texas A&M (Nov. 21) on the horizon, the Sooners cannot afford to overlook this trip to Gainesville. Florida should be improved under new coach Jon Sumrall and will be especially dangerous late in the season after time to develop under the staff.
9. Texas A&M: Nov. 7 at South Carolina
Texas A&M has lost back-to-back trips to South Carolina. With Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas still ahead on the November slate, this trek to Columbia could easily become a lookahead spot for the Aggies.
Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2026
10. LSU: Oct. 10 at Kentucky
Kentucky features a new coaching staff and an overhauled roster, so history may not mean much in this case. However, the Wildcats gave Lane Kiffin plenty of headaches during his tenure at Ole Miss. The Rebels went 3-1 versus Kentucky in that stretch, but all four matchups were decided by a touchdown or less.
11. Ole Miss: Sept. 26 at Florida
The showdown against LSU and former coach Lane Kiffin in Oxford is one of the most-anticipated matchups of 2026. A trip to Gainesville following an emotional week is a dangerous spot and a potential classic letdown game for coach Pete Golding’s team.
12. Texas Tech: Nov. 14 at Oklahoma State
Even with quarterback Brendan Sorsby no longer on the roster, Texas Tech is still expected to be favored in all 12 of its regular-season matchups. It’s tough to find an obvious fit for a trap game, but Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense could present a challenge.
13. Michigan: Oct. 3 at Minnesota
History heavily favors Michigan here, as the program has not lost a matchup at Minnesota since 1977. However, this contest against the Golden Gophers is sandwiched into a brutal stretch. After a tough home clash against Iowa (Sept. 26), the Wolverines travel to Minneapolis, followed by tests versus Penn State (Oct. 17) and Indiana (Oct. 24).
Related: Big Ten Football Predictions for 2026
14. USC: Oct. 24 at Wisconsin
Former Pac-12 teams haven’t found smooth sailing in Madison since joining the Big Ten in 2024. The Badgers gave Oregon all it could handle (16-13) in ‘24 and upset Washington (13-10) last year. Coach Luke Fickell’s team enters ‘26 with significant question marks, but the arrival of transfer quarterback Colton Joseph (Old Dominion) should spark the offense, and a potentially stingy defense could give USC some trouble on Oct. 24. This game also comes one week before Ohio State plays at the Coliseum in a massive Big Ten showdown.
15. Alabama: Oct. 3 at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide should be 4-0 going into this matchup on Oct. 3. However, this contest marks the start of a brutal stretch, with games against Georgia (Oct. 10), Tennessee (Knoxville on Oct. 17), Texas A&M (Oct. 24) and LSU (Baton Rouge on Nov. 7). Coach Kalen DeBoer’s squad can’t overlook an improving Mississippi State team (especially after losses as a favorite to Vanderbilt and Florida State the last two years).
Related: SEC Football Predictions for 2026
16. BYU: Oct. 24 at UCF
The Cougars benefit from a manageable overall schedule and a clear path back to the Big 12 title game. This trek to Orlando comes one week after hosting Notre Dame in Provo on Oct. 17.
Related: College Football Top 138 Team Rankings for 2026
Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2026-27
Related: College Football 2026 All-America Team
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jul 9, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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