COMMENTARY: Analyzing Tennessee's CFP chances with a win or loss vs. Texas
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KNOXVILLE, Tenn. – In 2024, the Tennessee Volunteers advanced to the College Football Playoff (CFP) for the first time in program history.
The playoff berth was immediately followed by a 42-17 lashing at the hands of the eventual national champion Ohio State Buckeyes.
Since its inception in 2014, the College Football Playoff has featured the country’s best teams, with the notable exception of the Florida State Seminoles in 2023.
This year, the Tennessee Volunteers may have a real chance of being one of the 12 selected teams.
That is, of course, if they can defeat the No. 1 Texas Longhorns on Saturday.
Defeating the nation’s top team has never been a simple task, but Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is going about his preparation just like every other game.
Heupel noted, however, that Texas’ defense may pose a problem for true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon.
“Their personnel gives them a lot of freedom to do a lot of different things from pressure to coverage and rotations,” Heupel said. “You’ve got to be able to adjust.”
The Longhorns are undoubtedly the most challenging opponent Tennessee will face this season, and thankfully for the Volunteers, they will be playing this game in front of 101,915 fans packed into the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium.
With a win, the Volunteers’ playoff chances will skyrocket, as they would likely launch into the top seven in the weekly Associated Press media poll.
Though the Volunteers will face three more ranked opponents before the conclusion of the regular season, they could theoretically drop all three of those games and still sneak into the CFP at 9-3.
Assuming the Volunteers take care of business against unranked opponents, and win one of the final three games against ranked opponents, Tennessee would finish the season 10-2, almost certainly reaching the CFP and perhaps hosting a playoff game inside Neyland Stadium.
CFP chance with a win: 70%
If Tennessee loses this game, however, their playoff outlook becomes murky.
They would almost certainly have to defeat Texas A&M at Kyle Field, and though the Aggies were just defeated at home by Will Stein’s Kentucky Wildcats, leaving College Station with a win remains a tall task.
Since 2024, the Aggies are 15-4 at home.
Operating under the assumption that the Volunteers are unable to beat the Longhorns or Aggies, they would have to defeat both Alabama and LSU.
And, despite both these games being in Knoxville, relying on Josh Heupel to beat both Kalen DeBoer and Lane Kiffin is far from a reasonable ask.
Further, the Volunteers are a combined 5-23 against Alabama since 2005.
Therefore, Saturday’s matchup with Texas becomes a must-win.
If the Volunteers fail to pull this one out, it could end their season before it even begins.
CFP chance with a loss: 15%
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