Early College Football Playoff Predictions 2026: Projected Bowl Game Winners, CFP National Champion
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Who will win the national championship this season? Ahead of the 2026 college football season, we’re attempting to predict which 12 teams will compete in the College Football Playoff this winter. There will always be surprises, but it’s fair to assume many of he top-ranked programs will be there at the end.
Let’s dive into our initial College Football Playoff predictions for 2026, from the bowl games to who comes out on top of the CFP National Championship Game.
Related: Top 25 College Football Rankings Entering Week 0
Round One: (5) Oregon Ducks 35, (12) UNLV Rebels 10
The UNLV Rebels went 10-4 in their first season under Dan Mullen and could be even better this fall with the addition of former five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold. Mullen’s track record with quarterbacks gives us optimism he can get more out of Arnold, at least relative to quarterbacks UNLV will face in the Mountain West. Unfortunately for UNLV, while we do have it making the College Football Playoff, it gets thoroughly squashed by the Oregon Ducks in Round One.
Round One: (6) Texas Longhorns 38, (11) Virginia Tech Hokies 13
Making the College Football Playoff in Year One with the Virginia Tech Hokies would be an incredible addition to James Franklin’s resume as a head coach. With how the ACC is looking this year and the talent he’s compiled on the Virginia Tech roster, we think he pulls it off. The Hokies then immediately get kicked out of the CFP with Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns coasting to a victory.
Round One: (9) Oklahoma Sooners 20, (8) Texas A&M Aggies 17
A first-round matchup in the College Football Playoff between two great defenses, sign us up. We think the Oklahoma Sooners, with a healthy John Mateer, are a lot better than they’re getting recognized for entering the season. Meanwhile, the Texas A&M Aggies return their star quarterback, and head coach Mike Elko has the defensive personnel to once again orchestrate one of the best units in the SEC. In a low-scoring affair, Mateer makes one fewer mistake than Marcel Reed, and that’s the difference-maker in a Sooners victory.
Round One: (7) Indiana Hoosiers 28, (10) LSU Tigers 20
Ordinarily, the defending national champions would be the program that the nation wants to see get knocked out in the College Football Playoff. An exception will be made for the LSU Tigers. From pulling players out of the NFL and back into college to what went down at Ole Miss, the college football world would be rooting against LSU in this matchup. What matters to us? The Hoosiers are just as talented as LSU, albeit with better coaching, more experience and greater discipline. All of that matters in a head-to-head matchup.
CFP Quarterfinals: (1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 31, (9) Oklahoma Sooners 21
Coming off an undefeated regular season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish get to host Oklahoma. Whereas the Sooners’ first-round matchup put them up against a similar caliber of defense and quarterback, Notre Dame has the advantage here in the trenches, at signal-caller and at head coach. C.J. Carr delivers one of his best performances of the season, and 2 interceptions from Mateer, forced by the Fighting Irish’s pass rush, pave the way for Notre Dame to advance.
CFP Quarterfinals: (7) Indiana Hoosiers 35, (2) Ohio State Buckeyes 31
In a rematch of their College Football Playoff matchup last season, we get a lot more scoring. Jeremiah Smith finds the end zone twice and clears the 100-yard mark once again versus the Hoosiers’ secondary, while quarterback Julian Sayin exercises his demons from the last meeting against Indiana. However, Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover will carve up the Buckeyes’ secondary thanks to the three-headed monster that is his receiving corps, all the while being kept clean by one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Ohio State leads late, but a Bo Jackson fumble sets up Indiana’s go-ahead touchdown in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter, and Curt Cignetti beats Ryan Day once more.
CFP Quarterfinals: (3) Georgia Bulldogs 27, (6) Texas Longhorns 21
An outstanding season for the Texas Longhorns and a Heisman-caliber year for Arch Manning comes to an end in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. The Georgia Bulldogs defense forces a first-half interception, which Gunner Stockton promptly takes advantage of with a touchdown drive. Georgia’s run game leads a late scoring drive in the fourth quarter to make it a six-point game, with Manning’s attempt at a game-winning drive falling short.
CFP Quarterfinals: (5) Oregon Ducks 28, (4) Miami Hurricanes 27
It will be one of the best matchups in the College Football Playoff. Oregon and the Miami Hurricanes’ offenses both score touchdowns on their opening drives, followed by shutdown defenses that keep it a 7-7 game midway through the second quarter. Dante Moore, the Heisman Trophy winner, breaks it up with a touchdown strike in the corner of the end zone to tight end Jamari Johnson, and Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah answers with a touchdown of his own before halftime. Ultimately, after trading scores in the second half, Miami has to settle for a field goal early in the fourth quarter after a brutal sack on third-and-medium. That proves to be the difference-maker, with Oregon moving on.
CFP Semifinals: (1) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 38, (5) Oregon Ducks 34
In a battle between future top-10 picks in the 2027 NFL Draft, Carr makes his case for being selected over Moore come April. Both defenses uncharacteristically struggle in this game, with the Fighting Irish having no answers for all of Oregon’s skill players, while Dan Lanning’s defense gets picked apart by Carr on a heater. In the second half, Marcus Freeman decides to go for it on fourth down instead of settling for the field goal, running back Aneyas Williams converts it, and that four-point swing becomes the reason Notre Dame reaches the CFP National Championship Game.
CFP Semifinals: (7) Indiana Hoosiers 30, (3) Georgia Bulldogs 27
The Hoosiers make it to back-to-back national championship games, with quarterback play and coaching being the biggest X-factors against Georgia. Indiana offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan dials up a game plan that Kirby Smart and Co. simply can’t find an answer for, even with halftime adjustments. Stockton keeps things close, but the inability of the Bulldogs’ defense to generate a three-and-out in the second half prevents Stockton from pulling off the fourth-quarter comeback.
CFP National Championship Game: (1) Notre Dame 21, (7) Indiana 17
It’s the Battle for Indiana in the CFP National Championship Game. The Hoosiers do have the experience on the big stage and the talent in the trenches to challenge Notre Dame like very few teams in college football will prove capable of this fall. However, there’s a reason repeating as national champions is so difficult. The Fighting Irish’s defense, with enough time to prepare, delivers its best performance of the Freeman era and Carr’s go-ahead touchdown late. On Indiana’s final drive, All-American cornerback Leonard Moore tips away a would-be conversion on third-and-long that effectively drops a dagger into the Hoosiers’ hopes.
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