ESPN Analyst Predicts LSU Won't Reach College Football Playoff in Kiffin's First Year
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One of the major storylines of the offseason was Lane Kiffin’s departure from the Ole Miss Rebels after six seasons to become the head coach of the LSU Tigers. This move came despite his successful leadership at Ole Miss, where he guided the team to its first College Football Playoff appearance.
The question now is whether he can lead LSU back to the tournament for the first time since 2019. Bill Connelly, ESPN’s analytical expert, has put together a list of the 12 teams he believes will compete in next season’s CFP. Connelly employed specific criteria to create these rankings. Rather than simply asking, “Which teams are the best on paper?” he aims to establish guidelines that will help predict how the CFP race will unfold.
Connelly only predicted four of the 12 playoff teams correctly last year, while ESPN’s Way-Too-Early predictions only forecasted three accurately. Furthermore, last year’s rules require few changes. These rules are:
- The Big Ten will be won by the best team not named Ohio State.
- The SEC has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
- The Big 12: Either flip the close games around … or go with the money.
- The ACC has to be won by either Clemson (2011, 2015-20, 2022, 2024) or a team that beat Clemson in the regular season (2012-14, 2021, 2023, 2025).
- Best Group of Six champ: The best team to schedule multiple power-conference opponents wins.
- At-Large Bids: Six teams from the Way-Too-Early Top 25 and a team that had a losing record last season.
After reviewing his criteria, Connelly does not predict LSU will make the playoff in Kiffin’s first year, despite the Tigers having the best transfer portal class in college football.
Kiffin’s arrival at LSU immediately raised expectations in Baton Rouge. However, Connelly’s early playoff model suggests that roster upgrades alone may not be enough to deliver instant postseason success.
Connelly’s criteria historically favor continuity, conference dominance and a proven ability to navigate the SEC gauntlet, areas where LSU is still searching for stability after recent coaching turnover. With Kirby Smart’s Georgia continuing to set the standard, first-year head coaches face a steep climb to crack the playoff field.
While LSU’s long-term outlook appears promising under Kiffin, Connelly’s projection underscores the difficulty of making a playoff leap in Year 1. For the Tigers, 2026 may be more about establishing an identity than immediately returning to the national title conversation.
Related: Lane Kiffin Makes Personal Decision Before Georgia-Ole Miss Game
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jan 31, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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