ESPN analytics predict the final score of Ohio State vs. Indiana

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Ohio State heads to Bloomington for one of the most anticipated college football matchups of the year. It's a rematch of the Big Ten Championship game from last season, one in which the Hoosiers outlasted the Buckeyes on their way to the College Football Playoff national title.

This time, Ohio State will be looking to put the universe back in balance by taking the Big Ten mantle back, but it won't be easy. We've already seen what the ESPN "matchup predictor" says about this game, in which the Buckeyes are modest favorites according to Vegas, and we've even asked our writers to take turns providing their predictions for what will happen on Saturday afternoon.

Now, it's time to add another prediction to the mix, one from ESPN's resident analytic expert, Bill Connelly. He used the well-known SP+ analytics model to predict the final score of Ohio State vs. Indiana, and it's as tight as you would expect. Before we reveal the score, however, there are reasons to believe the Buckeyes can indeed come out victorious in this one, as long as they execute on some keys to the game.

Will Ohio State football beat Texas? ESPN's final score prediction

Ahead of Ohio State vs. Indiana, ESPN's Bill Connelly predicted the final score using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Buckeyes winning by, ahem — less than a point.

Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 26.4, Indiana 26.2. Clearly, there aren't tenths of points in the real world of college football, but OSU has the thinnest of advantages according to the SP+, and hopefully that plays out with a one-point or more victory.

Connelly gives Ohio State a win probability of 51%.

Where Ohio State football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings entering Week 7

Ohio State is No. 1 in ESPN's SP+ team rankings, the same spot it has been for a couple of weeks now.

Ohio State has an overall rating of 29.5, ahead of No. 2 Georgia (28.3). Indiana's SP+ ranking is just four spots below the Buckeyes at No. 5 with an overall rating of 26.7.

To break down Ohio State's rating by units, SP+ gives the Buckeyes a 41.3 rating on offense (No. 1 nationally) and an 11.7 rating on defense, which is also No. 1 nationally. In special teams, Ohio State has a -0.2 rating, which ranks No. 102 overall.

Breaking down Indiana's SP+ ranking, the model gives the Hoosiers a 39.3 rating on offense that's No. 7 nationally, a 12.8 rating on defense (No. 4 in the nation), and a 0.2 rating in special teams (No. 38).

What are ESPN SP+ rankings?

According to Connelly, SP+ is "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

"SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does," he adds.

Ohio State football vs. Indiana: start time, channel for Week 7

Kickoff for Ohio State-Indiana in Week 7 of the 2026 college football season is Noon ET Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana. The game can be seen on Fox as part of the Big Noon Game of the Week. Joel Klatt and Gus Johnson will have the call of the game, with Jenny Taft reporting from the sidelines.

Additionally, you can catch the game on radio via the Learfield radio broadcast team of Paul Keels and Jim Lachey. The banner station for the Ohio State Radio Network is 1460 WBNS radio (AM).

Ohio State football schedule 2026

All times Eastern.

Record: 5-1 overall, 3-0 Big Ten

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.

This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: ESPN analytics predict the final score of Ohio State vs. Indiana

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos