ESPN betting analyst confident in Oregon's defense against USC
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All season long, the Oregon Ducks‘ defense has stood out. Even in their Week 7 loss to the now No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers, true freshman cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. returned an interception for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. In all their wins, the Ducks‘ secondary has been sticky, allowing the fewest passing yards per game. They rank just outside the top 20 in rushing defense, also excelling in that aspect.
That, along with matching up well with several of the USC Trojans’ flaws, is a huge reason that ESPN betting analyst Pamela Maldonado is recommending USC under 24.5 total points ahead of their matchup with Oregon on Saturday.
Said flaws include a highly successful first and second down success rate while not being up to par on third down — especially when a play doesn’t go as planned on early downs, such as gaining negative or zero yards.
On the other side, the Ducks‘ defense is especially good on early downs, forcing their opponent into long third-down conversion attempts.
“Oregon tackles at a high level, plays clean and shrinks windows USC normally hits,” Maldonado wrote. “If the Trojans lose early downs in Eugene, they’re not built to survive long fields, long drives or long situations. Take away the rhythm of a Lincoln Riley run offense and the identity disappears. Oregon can take that away.”
She continued, noting USC quarterback Jayden Maiava’s struggles downfield that play into the Ducks’ hand.
“Oregon has the exact defensive profile that gives USC’s QB Jayden Maiava problems,” she wrote. “He can hit the deep ball –19 yards per pass attempt with five scores — but he completed barely half of them. The misses create stalled drives when defenses can cover vertically. Oregon’s corners all grade over 80% in coverage which means fewer freebies downfield.”
On the season, Oregon is allowing just 13.7 points per game, good for sixth in the country. While it’d be a mild surprise to see them hold Maiava, wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane and running back King Miller to under 14 points, Maldonado presents a strong case for the Ducks holding them under 24.5 points.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: ESPN betting analyst lists best bet in Oregon’s matchup with USC
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