ESPN makes case for and against Oregon Ducks to win the national title

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Explosive plays have become the norm for the Oregon Ducks‘ offense in 2025, as 10.4% of their plays have gone for 20 yards or more, the highest mark in the country. They’ve also mixed efficiency along with it, as just 15.3% of their drives have ended as three-and-outs, the fourth-lowest mark.

With quarterback Dante Moore at the helm, offensive coordinator Will Stein still calling plays and a number of playmakers both in the backfield and out wide, the Ducks sport easily one of the top offenses in the country. As they head into the College Football Playoff, that cohesive nature of explosiveness and efficiency is the biggest reason why Oregon will win the national title, according to ESPN analyst Bill Connelly.

But that’s not all, as the defense also has a similar formula.

Under defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi, who will also be back for the playoff despite accepting the Cal Bears head coaching job, the Ducks‘ defense has allowed 20 yards or more on just 3.3% of its plays, the least in college football. They’ve also forced three-and-outs on an astounding 42% of their opponents’ drives, good for fifth.

“It is, to say the least, difficult to beat a team that is pummeling you in both the efficiency and explosiveness departments,” Connelly wrote in an article listing why every CFP participant will and won’t win the title.

As for why the Ducks won’t win it all, Connelly noted the lack of disruption on the defensive side of the ball.

“As effective as the defense has been, the Ducks haven’t been great at forcing the issue,” he said. “They rank 98th in stuff rate and 47th in sack rate. They force a lot of passing downs — which I define as second-and-8 or more and third- or fourth-and-5 or more — but they rank 47th in passing-down success rate allowed, and if you can work the ball into the red zone, you’re probably scoring seven points: Oregon’s 75.0% red zone TD rate allowed ranks 129th.”

Defending the red zone has been a point of emphasis for Oregon especially late in the season, with head coach Dan Lanning saying as such during their second bye week.

Every team has their flaws and could be exploited. Just look at last season, when the Ducks were punched in the mouth by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

But what matters is if a team’s strengths and overall resolve make up for them. And as we saw time and again during the final month of the season for the Ducks, they showed up and made winning plays — whether it be an Atticus Sappington field goal or a Malik Benson long touchdown.

Only time will tell if the efficient explosiveness on both sides of the ball will outweigh the lack of disruption.

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: ESPN analyst breaks down why Oregon will and won’t win the title

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