ESPN predicts final score of Alabama football vs. Indiana in Rose Bowl

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Sooners will be meeting for the first time in the history of the two programs when they square off in the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on New Year's Day.

Alabama (11-3) is playing in Pasadena for the second time in three years. Indiana (13-0) is in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1968 after an historic turnaround with second-year coach Curt Cignetti guiding the Hoosiers to an undefeated regular season, a Big Ten championship, and a No. 1 ranking in the polls.

The winner will advance to the CFP semifinals at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta on Jan. 9 to face No. 5 Oregon or No. 4 Texas Tech, who meet in the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day (11 a.m. CT, ESPN).

Alabama erased a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma in a 34-24 victory in the CFP's first round. Coach Kalen DeBoer's Crimson Tide tied the game after scoring 17 points in a span of 5:34 in the second quarter. Ty Simpson started the comeback with a touchdown pass to Lotzeir Brooks on fourth-and-2 from the Oklahoma 10-yard line.

When Simpson connected with Brooks again early in the third quarter on a 30-yard touchdown pass, Alabama had its first lead of the night. The Tide used a six-yard Daniel Hill touchdown run and took advantage of two missed field goals by Lou Groza Award winner Tate Sandell in the fourth quarter to pull away.

Indiana defeated No. 1 Ohio State, 13-10, in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 6. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Fernando Mendona finished 15 of 23 for 222 yards and a touchdown. He converted on third-and-6 for a 33-yard strike to Charlie Becker and a first down with just over two minutes to play against the Buckeyes.

Will Alabama upset Indiana in Rose Bowl, CFP quarterfinals? ESPN makes prediction

Ahead of Alabama-Indiana in the 2026 Rose Bowl, ESPN's Bill Connelly predicted who will win using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Hoosiers winning by two scores over the Crimson Tide, which differs from what oddsmakers are saying.

His final score prediction: Indiana 31, Alabama 18.

Adds Connelly:

"To me, this one's all about the Hoosiers. They're the unbeaten top seed, and they've already scored a couple of huge wins, but we've seen plenty of upstarts falter when they get near the mountaintop. Alabama is a well-coached and formidable foe, but IU's A-game should be too much. It's up to the Hoosiers to bring that A-game to Pasadena."

Where Alabama football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings entering Rose Bowl

Alabama is No. 15 in the latest ESPN SP+ team rankings, down two spots from where it was entering the first-round College Football Playoff game at Oklahoma.

The Crimson Tide have an overall rating of 18.4. Alabama is one spot ahead of the USC Trojans (17.1) and one spot behind the Iowa Hawkeyes (18.7) in ESPN's team rankings.

To break down Alabama's rating by units, SP+ gives the Crimson Tide a 34.3 rating on offense (No. 25 nationally, up one spot from two weeks ago) and a 14.6 rating on defense (No. 9). In special teams, Alabama is given a minus-1.4 rating, which ranks 108th nationally (up five spots).

Indiana is No. 2 in the SP+ team rankings with an overall rating of 31.5, one spot behind Ohio State (32.3). The metrics give the Hoosiers a 40.4 rating on offense (No. 6 nationally), a 9.9 rating on defense that's No. 2 nationally, plus a 1.0 rating in special teams (No. 39).

What are ESPN SP+ rankings?

According to Connelly, SP+ is "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

"SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does," he adds.

Alabama football vs. Indiana: start time, channel for Rose Bowl

Kickoff for Alabama-Indiana in the Rose Bowl is 3 p.m. CT Thursday in Pasadena. The game will be televised on ESPN. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will have the call of the game. Holly Rowe and Kris Budden will report from the sidelines.

Alabama football schedule 2025

Here's a game-by-game look at Alabama football's 2025 schedule.

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn (W, 27-20)
  • Dec. 6: vs. Georgia (L, 28-7)
  • Dec. 19: at Oklahoma — CFP first round (W, 34-24)
  • Jan. 1: vs. Indiana (CFP quarterfinals at Rose Bowl), 3 p.m.

Follow us at @RollTideWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook, for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football vs Indiana, Rose Bowl CFP score prediction from ESPN

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos