ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs Oklahoma Sooners

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Alabama football is preparing for one of its toughest tests this season, a top 10 showdown with the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 12 at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

The Crimson Tide (8-1 overall, 6-0 SEC) are No. 4 in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and the updated College Football Playoff rankings, unveiled on Tuesday; Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2) is No. 10 in the Coaches Poll and No. 11 in the CFP rankings.

Alabama is fresh off a 20-9 victory over the LSU Tigers that turned out to be a four-quarter fight. The defense shined and held LSU to field goals every time the Tigers reached the red zone.

Quarterback Ty Simpson was off on a few deep throws, finishing 2-of-6 on passes of more than 20 yards, but the first-year starter still threw for 277 yards, including a touchdown strike to Ryan Williams with 22 seconds left in the first half to give Alabama a 17-3 lead at intermission.

Alabama’s running game continued to struggle, finishing with 56 yards on 26 carries (2.2 AVG). Nevertheless, the Crimson Tide enter Saturday’s game against Oklahoma with eight straight wins and a clear path to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game and a return trip to the College Football Playoff in sight.

Standing in their way in Week 12 is an Oklahoma team that kept Alabama out of the playoff field last season with a 24-3 upset win on the second to last weekend of the regular season. The Sooners scored a 33-27 victory over the Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium in their last game on Nov. 1.

John Mateer threw for 159 yards and a touchdown while piling up another 80 yards on the ground. His one-yard rush with 1:44 to play put the game out of reach. The Sooners’ defense capitalized by scoring 13 points off three Tennessee turnovers.

Will Alabama beat Oklahoma? ESPN’s prediction

Alabama is a 6-point favorite over Oklahoma according to oddsmakers. As always, though, ESPN analytics has its own odds for Saturday’s game.

ESPN’s matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index (FPI) ratings and other variables, gives Alabama a 71.4% chance to win and Oklahoma a 28.6% chance.

The Crimson Tide are fourth in the latest FPI ratings from ESPN. Alabama has a 22.3 overall rating, down slightly from 22.6 before its win over LSU. Oklahoma has a 16.1 rating that’s tied for 14th nationally in ESPN’s metrics.

Kickoff for Alabama-Oklahoma is 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday. The game will be televised on ABC. Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy will call the game for ABC, with Molly McGrath reporting from the sidelines.

Alabama football odds of reaching 2025 College Football Playoff ahead of matchup vs Oklahoma

In the updated FPI ratings entering Week 12’s contest against Oklahoma, Alabama’s chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff have risen to 95.7%. That’s up from 93% before its win over LSU.

The Crimson Tide are given a 53.3% chance of winning the SEC title (down from 54.1% last week), a 23.1% chance to reach the national championship game on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami (down from 24% last week), and an 11.3% shot of winning the national title (virtually the same from last week’s 11.6%).

Alabama trails the Ohio State Buckeyes (27.6), Indiana Hoosiers (26.7) and Oregon Ducks (23.6) in the latest FPI rakings. The Crimson Tide (22.3) are one spot ahead of Notre Dame (22.0) in the FPI.

SEC football teams ranked by ESPN FPI entering Week 12

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m., ABC
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn, TBA

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Oklahoma in Week 12, per ESPN

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