ESPN predicts the winner of the Sugar Bowl

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ESPN predicts the winner of the Sugar Bowl

The No. 3 seed Georgia Bulldogs and No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels are both three wins away from being crowned as national champions of the College Football Playoff. Georgia and Ole Miss already played once this season with the Dawgs prevailing 43-35 in Athens thanks to an insane day offensively.

In the first matchup, Georgia did not have to punt all game and totaled 510 yards of offense. The problem for Georgia was that the Bulldogs couldn’t stop Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who had 305 total yards and three total touchdowns. Chambliss’ dual-threat ability hasn’t changed, but the Rebels will have to try to beat Georgia without coach Lane Kiffin after Kiffin bolted for the LSU job a few weeks ago.

Since the Ole Miss game, Georgia’s defense has tightened the screws a bit and has not allowed an opponent to score more than 10 points over the past four games. Ole Miss’ defense has shown improvements too, but the Rebels did no face as many quality opponents as Georgia.

Who will win the Sugar Bowl? ESPN’s prediction

Detailed view of the Sugar Bowl trophy before it is presented after the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Georgia is a touchdown favorite against Mississippi. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Georgia a 60.1% chance to defeat Ole Miss. The Rebels have a 39.9% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. If Ole Miss wins, then it would be the second straight where Georgia has lost in the Sugar Bowl during quarterfinals round of the playoff. The matchup predictor factors team performance over the course of the season, the football power index (FPI) and other important variables.

Georgia’s national championship chances

UGA has 10.6% chance of winning the national championship (fourth-best in the nation), according to the FPI. Ole Miss has a 5.5% chance of winning the national title (seventh in the nation). Georgia has a 23.8% chance of advancing to the national title game. If Georgia beats Ole Miss, then the Bulldogs would play FPI’s most likely team to win the national championship, Ohio State.

Georgia football 2025 schedule

Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) looks to pass against Mississippi Rebels linebacker Tahj Chambers

  • Aug. 30: vs. Marshall (W, 45-7)
  • Sept. 6: vs. Austin Peay (W, 28-6)
  • Sept. 13: at Tennessee (W, 44-41 in OT)
  • Sept. 27: vs. Alabama (L, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Kentucky (W, 35-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Auburn (W, 20-10)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Ole Miss (W, 43-35)
  • Nov. 1: vs. Florida (W, 24-20)
  • Nov. 8: at Miss. State (W, 41-21)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Texas (W, 35-10)
  • Nov. 22: vs. Charlotte (W, 35-3)
  • Nov. 28: vs. Georgia Tech (W, 16-9)
  • Dec. 6 vs. Alabama (W, 28-7 in SEC championship)
  • Jan. 1 vs. Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl) at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN

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This article originally appeared on UGA Wire: ESPN predicts if Georgia football will win the Sugar Bowl

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