ESPN SP+ predicts the final score of Alabama football vs Oklahoma in Week 12

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Next up for the Alabama Crimson Tide is a top 10 showdown with the Oklahoma Sooners, who visit Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 12 SEC play Saturday.

Alabama will be looking to avenge a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma last year in the penultimate weekend of the regular season. The Sooners’ defense shined that night in Norman by holding the Tide to 234 total yards, the first time Alabama had failed to score a touchdown in a game since 2011.

More recently, the Crimson Tide (8-1, 6-0) earned a 20-9 win over the LSU Tigers last Saturday for their eighth straight win in coach Kalen DeBoer’s second season in Tuscaloosa. Alabama went up 17-3 at halftime after Ty Simpson threaded the needle with a 14-yard touchdown to Ryan Williams just before intermission.

The offense sputtered in the second half, but LSU never got to within seven points against one of Alabama’s best defensive efforts of the season. The Tide prevented a touchdown on a third-and-goal play in the third quarter when Yhonzae Pierre sacked Garrett Nussmeier for a big loss.

Later, Pierre forced LSU backup quarterback Michael Van Buren to fumble on the Tigers’ final possession to keep Alabama unbeaten in the SEC.

Oklahoma (7-2) is coming off a bye and defeated the Tennessee Volunteers in a big road win, 33-27 at Neyland Stadium on Nov. 1. Sophomore running back Xavier Robinson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in the Sooners’ win over the Vols. John Mateer threw for 159 yards and a touchdown while running for another 80 yards. His one-yard rush with 1:44 to play put the game out of reach. 

Alabama is ranked No. 4 in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll and CFP rankings; Oklahoma moved up two spots in the Coaches Poll to No. 10. The Sooners are No. 11 in the CFP rankings.

Will Alabama avoid repeat of Oklahoma upset? ESPN SP+ makes prediction

Ahead of Alabama-Oklahoma, ESPN’s Bill Connelly predicted who will win using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Crimson Tide defeating the Sooners by the slimmest of margins.

His final score prediction: Alabama 25, Oklahoma 24.

Connelly gives the Crimson Tide a win probability of 53%.

Alabama is seeking its first win over the Sooners since the 2018 College Football Playoff semifinals at the Orange Bowl in Miami. Oklahoma leads the all-time series vs. Alabama, 4-2-1.

Where Alabama football sits in ESPN SP+ rankings after LSU win

In the latest ESPN SP+ metrics, Alabama dropped one spot to No. 11 in the overall SP+ team rankings. The Tide are one spot behind the Georgia Bulldogs, who Alabama beat 24-21 on Sept. 27 in Athens, and one spot ahead of the USC Trojans.

To break down the numbers by units, SP+ gives Alabama a 35.4 rating on offense (No. 20 nationally), down from 36.6 last week, and a 15.8 rating on defense (No. 10), which is up four spots from last week.

Oklahoma is No. 9 in SP+ team rankings with an overall rating of 20.7. The Sooners’ offense has a 32.9 rating (No. 29 nationally), and a 12.3 rating defensively (third best in college football).

What are ESPN SP+ rankings?

According to Connelly, SP+ is “simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

“SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does,” he adds.

Alabama football vs. Oklahoma start time, TV channel in Week 12

Kickoff for Alabama-LSU is listed as 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be televised on ABC. Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy will have the TV call of the game from the broadcast booth at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with Molly McGrath reporting from the sidelines.

Additionally, the Crimson Tide Sports Network radio broadcast of Saturday’s game featuring Chris Stewart and Tyler Watts can be heard on SiriusXM channel 84.

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m., ABC
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn, TBA

Follow us at @RollTideWire on X and like our page on Facebook, for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football vs Oklahoma: final score prediction from ESPN

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos