ESPN SP+ predicts the final score of Clemson football vs Florida State in Week 11

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Clemson football will take on ACC rival Florida State Saturday night in Death Valley, and to the naked eye at least, the game won’t feel too much like any Clemson-FSU matchup before.

The Tigers and Seminoles are almost always fighting for ACC supremacy, having combined to win all but one conference championship since 2010.

Instead of what could have been another thrilling chapter in the rivalry with high stakes for both teams, this year’s showdown features two teams just trying to get to bowl eligibility. Clemson hasn’t been absent from bowl season since 2004.

The Tigers’ 20-year bowl game streak under Dabo Swinney is the fourth longest among active FBS teams: the Georgia Bulldogs‘ 28-year streak is the longest, followed by the Oklahoma Sooners at 26, and the Alabama Crimson Tide at 21.

The Tigers (3-5 overall, 2-4 conference) are coming off a 46-45 loss to Duke, the latest setback in a season gone further south than anyone imagined. Cade Klubnik threw for 385 yards and two touchdowns, and Antonio Williams was seven yards shy of tying his career-high in receiving yards; he had 142 against the Blue Devils.

Clemson’s offense racked up 560 total yards, but the defense allowed 439 in a porous showing. Darian Mensah led Duke on a game-winning 94-yard drive that was aided in large part by a blown pass interference call against Tigers cornerback Avieon Terrell with the Blue Devils facing fourth-and-7 at the Clemson 18-yard line.

Florida State (4-4, 1-4) defeated Wake Forest, 42-7, last Saturday to snap a four-game losing streak and give coach Mike Norvell some breathing room — for now. The Seminoles had lost 10 of their last 11 games against ACC opponents dating back to last season.

Will Clemson football beat Florida State? ESPN SP+ makes prediction

Ahead of Clemson-Florida State, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has predicted who will win using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Seminoles winning their second consecutive trip to Memorial Stadium.

Connelly’s final score prediction: FSU 29, Clemson 26.

He gives the Seminoles a win probability of 57%.

Clemson is seeking its ninth win in 10 tries against FSU dating back to 2015. The Tigers won last year’s meeting, 29-13, on Oct. 5, 2024 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. Florida State won the last matchup at Memorial Stadium, 31-24, in overtime on Sept. 23, 2023.

FSU leads the all-time series vs. Clemson, 21-16.

What are ESPN SP+ rankings?

According to Connelly, SP+ is “simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

“SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does,” he adds.

Clemson vs. Florida State start time, TV channel

Clemson-Florida State is scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday. The game will be shown on ACC Network. Wes Durham and Steve Addazio will have the call of the game from the broadcast booth at Clemson Memorial Stadium, with Dana Boyle reporting from the sidelines.

Clemson football schedule 2025

  • Aug. 30: vs. LSU (L, 17-10)
  • Sept. 6: vs. Troy (W, 27-16)
  • Sept. 13: at Georgia Tech (L, 24-21)
  • Sept. 20: vs. Syracuse (L, 34-21)
  • Oct. 4: at North Carolina (W, 38-10)
  • Oct. 11: at Boston College (W, 41-10)
  • Oct. 18: vs. SMU, (L, 35-24)
  • Nov. 1: vs. Duke (L, 46-45)
  • Nov. 8: vs. Florida State, 7 p.m, ACC Network
  • Nov. 14: at Louisville, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
  • Nov. 22: vs. Furman, TBD
  • Nov. 29: at South Carolina, noon, ABC or ESPN

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This article originally appeared on Clemson Wire: Clemson football vs Florida State final score prediction from ESPN

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