ESPN's Computer Model Changed Its National Title Prediction

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The first round of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff is in the books.

It went mostly chalk in the first round this year. Alabama came from behind to take down Oklahoma on Friday night. On Saturday, Miami topped Texas A&M, Ole Miss blew out Tulane and Oregon took care of James Madison. We're on to the quarterfinals, which will take place on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. It should be a fun one.

ESPN's computer model, the Football Power Index, has already changed its national title pick following the first round. The computer model has switched up its pick heading into the second set of games.

The ESPN Football Power Index changed up its pick following the first set of games over the weekend.

ESPN's computer model is now going with No. 2 seed Ohio State to win the College Football Playoff, taking over the spot held by No. 1 Indiana.

The Buckeyes now have a 25.8 percent chance to win the national title.

How does ESPN's computer model work?

The FPI is a simulations model and a projection-based system.

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete," ESPN writes.

This story was originally published by The Spun on Dec 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add The Spun as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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