Film Forecast, Fiesta Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels, Pt. 1
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The Miami Hurricanes (12-2) has advanced to face the Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) in the Fiesta Bowl on January 8th at 7:30pm on ESPN. Miami has a 55.6% win expectancy over Ole Miss per ESPN. UM is a three point favorite over Ole Miss per Las Vegas.
In order to get here the ‘Canes knocked off Texas A&M 10-3 in round one and the Ohio State Buckeyes 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss knocked off the Tulane Green Wave 41-10 in the first round and the Georgia Bulldogs 39-34.
The Doppler
The SP+ from Bill Connelly has 5th overall in FBS. Ole Miss is 2nd on offense, 18th on defense, and 1st in kicking. Miami is ranked 8th overall. The ’Canes are 21st on offense, 6th on defense and 25th in kicking.
On money downs, Miami is 23rd on 3rd downs converting 45% of the time on offense. Ole Miss is 33rd while converting on 43% of their 3rd downs. On 4th down, Miami is 14th and converting on 67% of their tries while Mississippi is 8th in FBS and converted 71% of their attempts.
On defense, UM is 14th on 3rd downs holding opponents to 32% of their tries while the Rebels are 40th and holding teams to 36% on 3rd down. Miami holds a 4% advantage over Ole Miss.
In turnover margin per game, Miami is 12th at +0.8 while Ole Miss is 62nd at +0.1. So both squads are in the positive but Miami has a clear advantage.
In penalty yards per game Miami is 85th in FBS with 56.3 yards in flags while the Rebels are 83rd with 56 yards in penalties.
PK LucasCarneiro has made all five of his field goal attempts during the playoffs, and finished 27-of-30 on the year. CarterDavis is 16-of-21 on the year with three of his five misses coming in the wind storm at Texas A&M.
The Film
We’re going to take a look at the UGA win over Ole Miss from October for part one of the series. UGA is still 7th in SP+ after their Sugar Bowl loss to Ole Miss. The Bulldogs offense is 14th, defense is 8th and kicking game is 3rd.
In UGA’s 43-35 win in the regular season, the Dawgs finished 7-of-12 on money downs while the Rebels finished 6-of-11. Neither team committed a turnover, and Ole Miss was flagged for 40-yards while UGA was flagged for 37-yards.
Both kickers were perfect on PAT’s while PeytonWoodring was 3-for-3 on FG’s. Nothing major happened in the return game.
THE OLE MISS OFFENSE
QB Trinidad Chambliss averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt with one TD throw and two rushing TD’s on 4.7 yards per carry.
UGA stuffed KewanLacy to 2.6 yards per carry but he did score twice against the Dawgs. UGA did not log a sack or TFL against Chambliss in part 1.
Chambliss was able to find eight different receivers with five hitting double-digit yards per catch numbers. The leader of the pack was De’Zhaun Stribling with 32 yards per catch and a score with a 75-yard long.
Above– If you’re a regular reader you know I love the slide RPO tag. QB reads the EMOL, if that guy ‘squeezes’ down to play the run the Q pulls and throws the slide route in the flat or keeps if the LB covers the TE. It’s a triple option post-snap double read.
Above– Just a quick look at the amount of space in the flat with the LB frozen and the DE squeezing.
Above– One thing that happens with the triple, even the modern one, is that the reads can get muddy and lead to fumbles on handoffs and on pitches or short throws. Chambliss recovers but on “and goal” that could be a key turnover.
Above– When rushing a guy like Chambliss the pass rush has to 1- come to balance properly on his outside hip and 2- keep rush lanes. You can see UGA get muddied up AND the DE doesn’t come to balance he over runs and lunges.
Above– This isn’t how I would coach the kick out on split zone but hanging your head into someone else does the truck I guess!
Above– Ole Miss using a weird formation with two QB’s on the field, direct snap to Lacy, Chambliss was in motion which drew one defender from the box. No one really ran with Simmons post-snap but he’s there.
Above– The UGA CB gave up the inside and it turns into a TD which we’ll see next. He wants to track that insidehip and shove the WR out of bounds.
Above– You can see UGA’s DB having the angle but losing it and losing the foot race to the end zone.
Above– More tricks: Lacy hands to Chambliss who fakes a reverse and gets an explosive run on 4th and 2. It’s important to keep in mind this is all Lane Kiffin as HC and OC, we’ll see what Charlie Weiss Jr. does in part two.
THE OLE MISS DEFENSE
Ole Miss allowed GunnerStockton to averaged 9.3 yards per pass attempt with four touchdowns in their first meeting. Stockton also rushed for 59-yards and a TD on the ground.
UGA had a solid ground game with NateFrazier and ChaunceyBowens getting theirs. They averaged 4.2 and 6.1 yards per carry, respectively. Ole miss had one sack and three TFL’s against the UGA offense.
Stockton found eight different targets with four coming up with double-digit yards per catch numbers. DillonBell averaged 28.5 yards per catch and TE LawsonLuckie caught three TD’s.
Above– I miss the old RhettLashlee flea flickers. You can see how well they do at drawing up LB’s and S’s and UGA leaves 8 in to maxprotect (he RB turns to block).
Above– With so many eyes on Toney why not start using him as a reversedecoy? CJ Daniels is back and playing clutch football again. The split zone look and reverse makes it 1 LB at the POA to come off blocks and work up to vs. 2.
Above– Why do teams run bunch sets? To create communication issues for the DB’s. Two DB’s come off and play the screen guy.
Above– This is a great picture of how open the TE gets and how much attention the screen got.
Above– Another scenario where a defender is grabbing at a football in the red zone. Ole Miss fails to strip the ball but Fletcher has to know they’ll be coming for it as does Toney after the OSU game.
Above– When the rungame gets going the play-action game can take advantage of the defense. Look at the attention the toss gets and the TE runs open. That defender points a little too late.
Above– Stockton misses the dude in the flat waving as he’s wide open. I have no idea what he’s looking at but under some pressure hit your rush route.
Above– Motion and fake jet sweeps get the attention of defenders and leave the flat wide open for the RB.
Above– No3. just can’t recover fast enough and it’s an easy score for UGA.
Above– This time Bell does get the reverse and the toss guy high masks the wrap to arc block coming underneath.
Above– UGA running a glanceRPO tag on inside zone. If that LB (circle) plays the run the glance is open and he hits it for a TD.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme has not veered- the Hurricanes need to own the damn road once again to win the ballgame. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown three touchdowns with zero INT’s in two playoff games. He’s added another two scores on the ground and has only been sacked one time through the two contests. He’s going to be a tough QB to defend in all ways.
What’s worked for Miami? DB KeionteScott being a jack-of-all-trades for the ‘Canes defense and DC CoreyHetherman. We’ll get into the individual keys and the score prediction in part two of the series. Part one featured Kiffin as HC and OC and we’ll take a look in part 2 at the Pete Golding and Weiss Jr. game plan and execution in the Sugar Bowl.
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