FIU vs Jacksonville State Prediction, Odds, Start Time: NCAAF Expert Picks for Tuesday

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The Florida International Panthers take on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in Jacksonville, Alabama, on Tuesday, Oct. 13. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

Jacksonville State is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -146. FIU, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +122 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43.5 total points.

Here’s my FIU vs. Jacksonville State prediction and college football pick for Tuesday, October 13.

My Jacksonville State vs. FIU best bet is on game totals. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

FIU vs Jacksonville State Odds, Line, Spread

• FIU vs Jacksonville State Spread: Jacksonville State -3, FIU +3
• FIU vs Jacksonville State Over/Under: 43.5 Total Points
• FIU vs Jacksonville State Moneyline: FIU ML +124, Jacksonville State ML -148

FIU comes into this game fresh off a victory on “Vice Night” last week while hosting New Mexico State. It now enters a critical juncture of the schedule with road games against Jacksonville State and Liberty sandwiching a home bout with Middle Tennessee.

The Panthers are squarely in the conversation to contend for the CUSA Championship this season while boasting the conference’s best defensive unit.

FIU has held opponents to just 12.2 points per game, and surprisingly, it has been only Buffalo that has surpassed 260 total yards in a game against this defense.

The secondary has played excellent football, allowing a completion rate of just 53% to go along with 156 passing yards per game and a pair of passing touchdowns.

Thirteen sacks and 33 tackles for loss have also aided the numbers put up by the secondary, as DeeJay Holmes, Kenton Simmons and Elisha Baldridge have been all over the field for the defensive front.

These three have put up 12 of the team’s sacks, and they’ll have to show up in a big way against the Gamecocks.

The offense still has not played its best football, as FIU has struggled to stack successful plays together and register explosive plays.

Quarterback JJ Kohl is completing 57% of his passes this season with 1,180 yards and five passing touchdowns. The passing game has consistently had to bail out the FIU offense, which struggles to consistently run the football.

Anthony Carrie and Devonte Lyons are the two featured backs who have rushed for 427 combined yards this season — but with an average of just 3.5 yards per rushing attempt. The Panthers rank 137th nationally in rushing explosives and have one rushing play longer than 20 yards this season.

Jacksonville State doesn’t allow explosiveness on the ground, but FIU should find a way to run the ball here. I expect a slow pace and methodical drives out of this offense.

Jacksonville State is 2-0 in conference play after exacting revenge on Kennesaw State, which defeated this team in the CUSA Championship game last season.

The Gamecocks have found a way to win the close games since giving away a road contest to Ohio in Week 3. This group figures to be in plenty of close contests the rest of the season.

Quarterback Caden Creel has thrown for 1,423 yards with 10 passing touchdowns, as there has been a more concentrated effort to get Deondre Johnson involved in the offense.

After catching just four passes for 48 yards over the first couple of weeks, Johnson posted his first 100-yard game of the season last week. He also used his 6-foot-8 frame to catch touchdown passes in each of his last two games.

JSU utilizes the QB run heavily, as Creel has more carries and rushing yards than any two running backs. However, Jalen Likely will still also receive 8-10 touches per game.

The run game doesn’t generate explosive plays on a regular basis, and the Panthers’ defense has allowed just two rushes over 20 yards this entire season. The offense will have to really grind out possessions here.

The Gamecock defense didn’t play very well against Kennesaw State last week, but the team has been consistent in both stopping the run and preventing explosive plays.

Jacksonville State is allowing just 4.1 yards per carry against FBS competition this season, and the secondary has held up well against the pass.

The front is creating more Havoc, and the secondary has avoided giving up big plays. This should be a good showing here against an FIU offense that has scored 22 points or less in four of its five games.

This line opened with Jacksonville State listed as a 2.5-point favorite and a total that has been bet down from 45.5 to 43.5. I like the under in this matchup.

FIU has one of the best defenses in the country in preventing explosive plays and, through five games, has allowed just 11 total plays that went for 20 yards or more.

The defense is elite on third down, allowing opponents to convert just 29% of attempts successfully.

The Gamecocks rank just 108th nationally in passing explosiveness, so FIU’s secondary will be able to key in on Johnson to limit deep-ball chances.

Jacksonville State wants to run the football and should do so here. It won’t be explosive, but it could be effective in keeping drives moving.

FIU won’t “wow” anybody offensively and should utilize a low-and-slow methodology here.

The pass game isn’t quite to the point where it can be relied upon, so keeping the ball on the ground and playing the field-position game should be expected.

The red zone will be critical here, but both defenses are going to have an upper hand.

Jacksonville State has converted just 48% of trips inside its opponent’s 20-yard line into touchdowns, while FIU has allowed just four red-zone touchdowns on 13 opponent trips while holding the best touchdown percentage allowed in the entire country.

On the other side, the Panthers boast one of the worst red-zone offenses in the country and have converted just 6-of-19 trips into touchdowns while settling for 10 red-zone field goals.

The passing concepts take too much time to develop when in close, and the receivers aren’t making plays. I expect this to continue on the road in this game.

This game will be a slow-burning grind. The pace will be slow, and red-zone opportunities will result in field-goal attempts. Watch for a lower-scoring game, and grab the under.

Pick: Under 43.5 (Play to 42)

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