Five college football sleepers who could contend for national title

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The list of college football’s national championship favorites starts with a team that lost in the CFP quarterfinals last season, followed by two teams that didn’t even make the playoff.

Sound strange?

Maybe, until you insert the names of the teams and consider their rosters.

Ohio State, Notre Dame and Texas head up the frontrunners, and never mind last year, because they’re loaded.

The list of top championship contenders, at least according to oddsmakers, continues with Indiana, Oregon, Georgia and Miami, all of which went to the quarterfinals or beyond this past postseason.

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Navigate past these top seven frontrunners, and a handful of teams intrigue me as national championship longshots. How do I define a longshot? Their odds are worse than 12-to-1.

Here are my top national championship sleepers for the 2026 season:

Sleeper teams for college football national championship

Texas A&M

BetMGM odds: 15-to-1

If you have a quarterback, you have a chance. Texas A&M has one who totaled more than 3,600 yards through the air or on the ground last season. Marcel Reed’s task as a fourth-year player is to limit his interceptions and elevate his performance against top opponents. He struggled in losses to Texas and Miami. He’ll like throwing to a premier group of wide receivers. As Reed told me earlier this spring, the weapons around him “are crazy good.”

Alongside Reed’s quest for more consistency, the key to a postseason run could be how well Texas A&M holds up at the lines of scrimmage. It used portal plunders to rebuild the offensive and defensive lines.

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Ole Miss

BetMGM odds: 25-to-1

The Rebels’ ceiling and floor are miles apart. Come at this with buzzy eyes after a few drinks from red Solo cups in the Grove, and you could talk yourself into another deep playoff run. Trinidad Chambliss is back as one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. Backfield star Kewan Lacy returned, too. In fact, despite Lane Kiffin’s exit, a handful of starters are back on each side of the ball. Insert one of the nation’s best transfer hauls, and the roster looks good.

But, the schedule stiffened, and although Pete Golding supplied a stirring triumph over Kirby Smart in the Sugar Bowl, we don’t know how he’ll navigate a full season as coach. Charlie Weis Jr. called plays for the playoff run. He’s off to LSU with Kiffin, leaving the offense in new hands.

Still, what did I say about quarterbacks? If you have one, you have a chance. Ole Miss has an excellent one.

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Lane Kiffin as a sleeper? Odds say yes

LSU

BetMGM odds: 15-to-1

Kiffin tried to downplay Year 1 expectations. Good luck with that. Eventually, he leaned in — sort of — and said during a recent podcast interview he thinks he’ll win a national championship at LSU.

OK, when?

“I don’t know how fast it’s going to happen,” Kiffin said on Tyrann Mathieu’s podcast.

A lot of reasons to think it won’t happen this year. LSU’s schedule includes five games against projected top-25 opponents, so even a playoff berth is no sure thing. Plus, transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt is coming off a foot injury. The roster has so many new faces, it’d be a wonder if players even know the names of their teammates.

Kiffin, though, excels at blending transfers, and he signed another elite portal class. Potential pitfalls are everywhere, but nobody can say this roster lacks talent.

Longer-shot sleeper from the Big Ten

USC

BetMGM odds: 35-to-1

If Kirby Smart coached this USC instead of Lincoln Riley, what would the Trojans’ odds be? Answer: Better than this.

Riley’s never done a thing in the postseason, and he’s never even taken USC to the playoff, but if we set that aside for a moment, we see a roster built to contend. USC is the opposite of LSU. The Trojans are all about continuity. USC’s 15 returning starters rank tops in the nation, per CBS Sports research. That includes a seasoned offensive line and quarterback Jayden Maiava.

Just when I start to think Riley might finally be prepped for a USC breakthrough, I peek at a schedule that includes Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Penn State and Washington.

Gulp. Now you understand the longshot odds.

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Hail Mary sleeper team for national championship

Penn State

BetMGM odds: 50-to-1

Matt Campbell couldn’t have gotten a kinder welcome into the Big Ten. If USC drew the Big Ten’s schedule of doom, then Penn State got the boon.

No Ohio State on Penn State’s schedule. No Indiana or Oregon, either. The nonconference schedule is a cupcake feast. This collection of opponents is built for playoff contention. Campbell used the en vogue move of a first-year coach bringing in a cavalcade of players from his previous job. His first team might as well be called the CyLions, because it’s loaded with former Iowa State Cyclones, including veteran quarterback Rocco Becht.

That all sounds pretty ideal, until you consider: The Cyclones went 8-4 last year. Solid, especially on defense, but not national championship-level good. They’re a Hail Mary for glory.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Five college football sleepers who could contend for national title

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