Five reasons Ohio State will beat Texas on Saturday night in Austin

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The most anticipated nonconference college football game of the 2026 season is about to take place when Ohio State and Texas do battle in Austin on Saturday. The Longhorns are very slight favorites, but a lot of folks in the national media are picking the Longhorns and quarterback Arch Manning to take care of business.

This one will most likely come down to who can execute the keys to the offense and the game, and some breaks here or there. It could come down to one play, as we've seen in the previous two matchups Ohio State won. This one is a coin flip with pretty equal talent on both sidelines, but we believe there are reasons the Buckeyes can come out on top.

Here are five reasons Ohio State beats Texas on Saturday in Austin.

Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith could be the difference

The best player on any field Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith steps on is Smith himself. Many in the national media have stomped for Miami's Malachi Toney or Texas' Cam Coleman as the best receiver in college football, but if you poll NFL scouts and executives on who they'll take right now, there's no doubt who that would be.

Last week, when the Buckeyes had to march down the field, quarterback Julian Sayin threw the ball to Smith five times on all but four plays of the drive, and it resulted in a touchdown. When all else fails, Ohio State can dial up a play for Smith, and there's a good chance something will happen because he's strong, fast, and can go up in traffic and catch the ball.

Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and his playcalling for Ohio State

What a luxury to have former NFL head coaches calling both the defense and the offense. The latter of whom, Arthur Smith, was brought into the mix to replace Brian Hartline and has all kinds of tricks in his bag, according to the Ohio State players.

We didn't really see Smith show too much against an outmatched Ball State last week, but look for some multiple sets, plays out different formations, and creative ways to get the ball to skilled players like Jeremiah Smith, Bo Jackson, Devin McCuin, and more, keeping the Texas defense on its toes all day.

Defensive play calling by Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia

Likewise on the defensive side. You won't find a better coaching staff than what Ryan Day has assembled, and none better than Matt Patricia. He put an immediate stamp on the defense in Year 1 last season, and his scheme and different looks gave Texas quarterback Arch Manning fits in the Shoe on Week 1.

You might think Manning having experience against the defense last year would help, and it may a little, but Patricia will cook up something again to make pre-reads and progressions awfully hard on Manning again. Ohio State will get some huge negative plays in the game because of it that could make all the difference in the world.

The psychological edge goes to Ohio State

The Buckeyes have won the last two matchups and done it in dramatic fashion. When there's a play to be made in the last two years, Ohio State has found a way to make it happen. From the Jack Sawyer sack, scoop, and score to a goal-line stand last season, the Buckeyes have been able to execute when needed most.

That matters. Sometimes there's an inevitability feeling when a team has your number, and although it's only been two back-to-back years, there are still a lot of players on the roster who have experienced the perceived Ohio State invincibility. Texas will have to push back on a certain mindset in this one when adversity strikes, and that might be hard because of where thoughts go because of recent performances.

The development of Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin

It was Week 1 when these two Goliaths met, and it was the first start for redshirt freshman quarterback Julian Sayin. The game plan was a vanilla one that didn't ask him to do too much, as Ohio State relied on the defense en route to a 14-7 victory. Sayin was nothing more than a game manager, and the Buckeyes still won.

We're talking about a much better quarterback wearing Scarlet and Gray under center now. As the season got longer in the tooth last year, Sayin ended up leading the country in completion percentage on his way to becoming a Heisman finalist. He's gotten even better in the offseason, and though Arch Manning has also developed, Sayin is the better pure quarterback and could lead his team to a victory with a quick release, decisive reads, and pinpoint passing.

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Five reasons Ohio State will beat Texas on Saturday night in Austin

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