Florida football tumbles in SP+ rankings after Week 11 loss at Kentucky Wildcats
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Florida football’s Week 11 battle with the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington went pretty much the polar opposite of what was expected, as the home team throttled the visitors in a 38-7 rout.
The Saturday prior, the Gators hung tough with the Georgia Bulldogs through three-plus quarters before the better team eventually pulled away. That overall performance had given the Orange and Blue a great deal of hope the following weekend against a team that had just one SEC win in five tries up until then.
Alas, DJ Lagway’s struggles continued — resulting in his benching after a trio of interceptions — while the defense struggled in ways uncharacteristic for the corps this fall. Add to the litany of injuries that continues to mount and the result was a recipe for disaster.
Consequently, Florida saw its stock fall in the various reranks and computer models, including ESPN’s SP+ rankings put together by Bill Connelly.
Where Florida ranks according to SP+ after Week 11
As a result of the blowout loss, the Gators fell nine spots from No. 39 to No. 48 in the SP+ rankings after Week 11. That puts Florida between the No. 47 Houston Cougars and No. 49 Baylor Bears.
The team’s overall SP+ rating dropped from 9.3 last week to 6.2 this week — a precipitous 3.1-point free fall — with the offense slipping 1.3 points to 26.3, moving them down seven spots to 72nd in the nation. Florida’s defensive metric actually rose from 1.8 points from 18.8 to 20.6, but fell from 20th to 30th in the rankings; special teams maintained its 0.5-point rating but fell three spots to No. 18.
ESPN’s Week 11 SP+ top 25 rankings
| Team | Rating | Offense | Defense | Spec Tms | Rk Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Ohio St. (9-0) | 30.5 | 39.6 (8) | 9.2 (1) | 0.1 (59) | +0 |
| 2. Indiana (10-0) | 27.7 | 40.0 (5) | 12.8 (4) | 0.5 (14) | +0 |
| 3. Oregon (8-1) | 26.6 | 37.8 (12) | 11.6 (2) | 0.4 (32) | +0 |
| 4. Texas Tech (9-1) | 25.2 | 38.5 (11) | 13.6 (5) | 0.3 (41) | +0 |
| 5. Texas A&M (9-0) | 22.6 | 40.8 (2) | 18.3 (18) | 0.1 (63) | +0 |
| 6. Notre Dame (7-2) | 22.5 | 39.9 (6) | 17.5 (13) | 0.1 (62) | +1 |
| 7. Utah (7-2) | 21.5 | 35.5 (19) | 14.2 (8) | 0.2 (49) | -1 |
| 8. Ole Miss (9-1) | 21.0 | 38.5 (10) | 18.2 (17) | 0.7 (2) | +1 |
| 9. Oklahoma (7-2) | 20.7 | 32.9 (29) | 12.8 (3) | 0.5 (15) | -1 |
| 10. Georgia (8-1) | 20.2 | 37.0 (14) | 17.5 (15) | 0.7 (1) | +1 |
| 11. Alabama (8-1) | 19.5 | 35.4 (20) | 15.8 (10) | -0.1 (84) | -1 |
| 12. USC (7-2) | 19.2 | 40.9 (1) | 22.0 (42) | 0.3 (40) | +0 |
| 13. Miami (7-2) | 18.3 | 35.3 (21) | 17.5 (14) | 0.6 (12) | +0 |
| 14. Texas (7-2) | 18.3 | 31.7 (44) | 13.7 (7) | 0.3 (42) | +0 |
| 15. Iowa (6-3) | 17.2 | 30.4 (52) | 13.6 (6) | 0.4 (37) | +2 |
| 16. Vanderbilt (8-2) | 16.5 | 38.7 (9) | 22.9 (48) | 0.6 (10) | +2 |
| 17. Tennessee (6-3) | 16.3 | 40.1 (4) | 24.3 (56) | 0.5 (21) | +3 |
| 18. Michigan (7-2) | 15.7 | 31.7 (42) | 15.7 (9) | -0.3 (101) | +3 |
| 19. Missouri (6-3) | 15.4 | 33.3 (28) | 17.5 (12) | -0.4 (105) | -4 |
| 20. Penn St. (3-6) | 15.0 | 34.2 (24) | 19.8 (23) | 0.6 (8) | +2 |
| 21. Washington (6-3) | 14.8 | 33.8 (26) | 18.5 (20) | -0.5 (113) | -2 |
| 22. BYU (8-1) | 14.4 | 32.3 (39) | 18.4 (19) | 0.5 (22) | -6 |
| 23. Illinois (6-3) | 13.4 | 36.7 (15) | 23.9 (54) | 0.6 (9) | +2 |
| 24. Pittsburgh (7-2) | 12.8 | 33.4 (27) | 21.2 (33) | 0.6 (11) | +3 |
| 25. Nebraska (7-3) | 12.3 | 31.6 (46) | 19.3 (21) | 0.0 (70) | +3 |
About ESPN’s SP+ projections
“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” Connelly notes.
“It is not a résumé ranking (hence the lack of unbeatens near the top), so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida football SP+ ranking after Week 11 loss at Kentucky Wildcats
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