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There have been two notable eras of Florida football in my lifetime. The first was the Steve Spurrier era: I was still fairly young but even I knew that it was a super fun offense that threw the ball around a lot, won a ton of games, and – as I found out later – had an absolute legendary shit talker as head coach that thrived in demolishing highly ranked opponents.

The second era was the Urban Meyer era, which I’m assuming most of you know: a proto power-spread team with a evangelical baby rhino at quarterback throwing top a litany of highly talented (and legally troubling) skill position players paired with a demonically fast defense.

I’ve watched Florida’s last two games and there’s some elements of both of those prior Floridian empires in this group. From the Meyer era they are extremely proficient at running the ball and playing stifling defense. From the Spurrier era they also have tremendous talent in the passing game, and excel at dismembering teams that came in highly ranked.

It’s not a great recipe for Missouri, is the point here.

But for as talented as Florida’s rosters always are, and as talented as Jon Sumrall is as a head coach, as college football aficionados we hold these two truths self-evident:

• You’re never the same team from week to week
• It’s difficult to win on the road.

So, instead of letting the hang over of the Mississippi State game linger and create a losing streak, let’s see what Mizzou can do to take down a Florida squad in a series that’s much more even than outsiders would think.

When Missouri Has the Ball

Much like Mississippi State last week, Florida is a team with a dynamite offense and a defense that is susceptible to giving up yards.

Ranking 31st in overall defense is certainly not some pushover but, also, looking at all those recruiting stars along their defensive starters, you’d expect them to to not have glaring weaknesses to take advantage of.

However, even as I go through those weaknesses below, keep in mind: this is an extremely havoc-forward defense. They are the most accurate tackling team in the country and rank in the Top 10 of defensive line havoc and linebacker havoc. It’s a profile of a defense that is aggressive and, at times, overly reliant on havoc plays to make stops.

Throw To Win

Florida’s pass defense ranks 94th in the nation. Cayden Lee is Missouri’s most reliable playmaker. Missouri needs some more receivers to step up in crunch time but, regardless, I’m assuming the running game will never be as good as last year and throwing the ball is the best way to move the ball. We’ll need Austin Simmons to to show up and hit his targets at a 44% success rate throwing the ball.

Minimize Havoc

Florida’s defensive pressure is nasty. They have 12 sacks already on top of 14 pressures as 24 tackles for loss. It’s a unit that has managed to swamp nearly every line it has gone up against and nullified most offensive plans.

Missouri’s o-line is good at pass blocking and not as good at run blocking but, no matter what they choose, it could be a long afternoon of Gators living in the backfield. It would be best if the line could limit the sacks and TFLs and hold that havoc number under 15% on the day.

Finish Your Dang Drives

Always, always, always. You can’t settle for field goals and hope to take down a Top 10 team. Let’s shoot for 5 points per scoring opportunity.

When Florida Has the Ball

In my preseason preview I cited Buster Faulkner as one of the best offensive coordinators in the business, and now that he has legitimate blue chip talent on his roster, Faulkner has been able to show off all of his play calling powers. The Gatos rank 9th in overall offense and have very few warts: 14th in success rate, 8th in passing, 12th on standard downs, 17th on passing downs, 9th in sacks allowed, and an incredible 3rd in points per scoring opportunity. Missouri will have to be very specific and lucky in order to stop this group.

Make ‘em Run

I know, I know. Jadan Baugh is on this team and is wildly considered to be the best running back in the country and I’m hoping that Florida RUNS the ball more?????

Si. That is what I want.

Why? Because the Florida passing game is 8th in the country, ranking in the Top 10 of efficiency and Top 20 of explosiveness. It’s where they break most of their big plays and that’s absolutely not what you want to happen here.

The ground game, on the other hand, ranks 42nd and is much less explosive than when they pass. As is always the case, the ideal defensive scenario – other than creating a turnover – is to force an offense to string together 10+ plays to score. Doing that means a college offense has to consistently execute over an extended drive, someething most offenses can’t reliably do.

So while it will be annoying to watch, having the defense drop into their shell coverage that we saw against Mississippi State and force Florida to run the ball (or throw quick, short hitches) is the ideal outcome here. Hopefully Mizzou can keep the passing success rate under 48% so Florida feels inclined to run more.

Turn Them Over!

Missouri was extremely lucky to be +1 against Mississippi State. Not only because there were no fumbles and they picked off one of their four passes defensed, but because State could turn any of its fifteen swats into a pick. Florida, on the other hand, ranks 1st in the entire country in expected turnover margin (+6.2) and 20th in actual turnover margin with +4. The defense needs to rip, swat, punch, and do anything possible to generate some turnovers and give the Tiger offense more opportunities. I’m a broken record on this one so far this year but it’s the best way to upset a ranked team: the Tigers will need to be +2 to make a positive impact here.

Conclusion

Only blue bloods have winning records against ranked teams and road trips, and Missouri certainly isn’t a blue blood. But, for as lofty as heights as Florida has climbed, they aren’t unbeatable. Eli Drinkwitz does pretty well at home (35-9) and has an even record in games that kickoff at 2:30p (6-6) as well as an even record against Florida (2-2). Missouri is flawed but always finds a way to hang in nearly every game they play. We’ll see how that goes on Saturday.

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