Florida State vs NC State Prediction: Who Will Save Its Season?
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Who wants to go to a bowl game?
It shouldn’t be this hard for Florida State and NC State programs that should blow past the eight-win mark on an annual basis, but it’s been a struggle.
They’re both 5-5, but they’ve made a ton of College Football Playoff noise.
Florida State started out by rocking Alabama, and its loss to Virginia might turn out to be the catapult to the Cavaliers’ run to the ACC Championship. The Noles close out the season at Florida.
NC State beat Virginia in a “non-conference” game, and it took down Georgia Tech a few weeks ago. It’s an all-or nothing team – four of the five losses were blowouts – but win this, or against North Carolina, and it’s in a bowl game.
Florida State vs NC State Preview
How To Watch Florida State vs NC State
Date: Friday, November 21, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
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Why Florida State Will Win
NC State can’t get its defense off the field.
It’s been able to overcome the problems with lots of offense, or by running well, but the D doesn’t have any sort of a pass rush, and that’s leading to way too many easy third down conversions.
The Wolfpack had an impossible time on the money downs against Georgia Tech and Miami, and Florida State is about to have the ball for the entire game.
The Seminoles have problems, but they’re the best in the ACC and among the best in America at coming up with third down conversions.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos is great at scrambling and keeping the chains moving, and that’s the battle. The big plays down the field are there, the offense is great at keeping control, and …
Why NC State Will Win
So why is Florida State so awful?
The defense is stunningly inconsistent, especially against ultra-accurate quarterbacks.
The Noles allowed passers to hit at least 70% of their passes in five of the six losses, and there’s been a big problem when they allow more than three yards per carry.
NC State has to run well. It’s 4-0 when coming up with more than 200 yards, and it has to start running and keep running, and when it comes to passing accuracy …
Florida State vs NC State Prediction, Betting Lines
CJ Bailey is hitting over 69% of his passes, getting to 70% or better seven times so far.
He hasn’t been quite as sharp lately – mostly in the losses in three of the last four games – but the offense will be fine at home.
This is a much different Wolfpack team in Raleigh than it is on the road – the level of opposition has a little to do with that.
Florida State, by the way, is 0-3 away from Tallahassee.
It’ll be a fun back-and-forth fight, and even though FSU will keep the chains moving, NC State will be in control late.
NC State 31, Florida State 28
Line: Florida State -6.5, o/u: 59.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 4
Must See Rating: 3
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Hawaii vs UNLV Prediction: Who Will Stay Alive in the Mountain West Race?
This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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