Florida State vs New Mexico State: FSU Wire staff predictions

The Florida State football program is opening the 2026 season against the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday in Week 0. It is a great chance for the Seminoles to pick up a win before back-to-back tough games.

FSU is the heavy favorite, and the offense will be looking to start the season with a bang, but New Mexico State has several talented players and has a path to keeping the game closer than expected. One factor that favors FSU is the Aggies' struggles in Week 0.

The Seminoles will look quite different than they did to close out the 2025 season. Head coach Mike Norvell is back calling plays as he leads a revamped coaching staff. While they have not revealed their starting lineup for the game, FSU will at least have a new starting quarterback and offensive line.

Tony White is still the defensive coordinator, but will have several new pieces. With cornerback Ja'Bril Rawls and the Desir twins back along the defensive line, the Seminoles will need them to step into bigger roles. They brought in several transfers to round out the defense, overhauling the safety and linebacker positions, and now it is time for their first test of the season.

With kickoff nearly here, here is how the FSU Wire staff sees Saturday's game between FSU and New Mexico State playing out.

Expectations for Ashton Daniels

Question: Ashton Daniels has been praised throughout fall camp. What are your expectations for him vs NMSU and for the season?

• JD McCarthy: I expect him to get the job done against an overmatched New Mexico State. If he can protect the football and take shots when needed, he can be an effective quarterback for the Seminoles. While he has done that at times, he has never done it for a full season, and I'm not sure that changes this year.
• Matthew Lenix: I expect him to come out and have an efficient performance. For the season, he just needs to run the offense smoothly, take his shots when needed, and protect the football.
• Jacob Smith: He can not be the guy who flamed out at Auburn if FSU is going to be successful. Daniels has walked into a situation that is dire: a team in win-now mode, with a fanbase tired of senseless losing. Against NMSU, he should be fine in this regard.
• Brandon Foster: Against New Mexico State, I’m less concerned with Daniels putting up a huge stat line and more interested in how comfortable he looks running the offense. I want to see command at the line of scrimmage, quick decisions, accuracy in the intermediate game and, most importantly, no unnecessary turnovers. For the season, I think Daniels’ ceiling is higher than some of the preseason quarterback rankings suggest. He doesn’t need to be an All-ACC quarterback for FSU to improve dramatically. If he can be consistent, protect the football and take advantage of Duce Robinson and the speed around him, I think he can have a very productive year.

Position groups to watch

Question: Which position group are you most interested in watching vs New Mexico State?

• JD McCarthy: Linebacker has been a weak spot for FSU, and that needs to change this year. They have a new coach in Ernie Sims and several new players; they need to start the year with a strong performance.
• Matthew Lenix: Both lines of scrimmage and the linebackers. It's a big year for the linebacker group.
• Jacob Smith: Wide receivers. I want Duce Robinson to win the Heisman. That'd be a nice thing to happen.
• Brandon Foster: The defensive line. There are players in that group I’m extremely high on individually, but I want to see what the unit looks like collectively. Mandrell Desir is one of the players I’m especially interested in watching after what he showed as a freshman. This should be an opportunity for that entire front to establish the type of physical identity Florida State wants to carry into SMU and Alabama.

FSU has talented running backs

Question: The development of Ousmane Kromah and Sam Singleton Jr. has been a major talking point for the coaches. What do you want to see from them?

• JD McCarthy: I want to see that they can run the ball effectively against an opposing defense and not just FSU. Both need to round out their games, but can be difference-makers if Kromah improves his vision and Singleton takes a step in pass-protection.
• Matthew Lenix: I want to see Kromah take the next step and for Singleton to get more opportunities. Too many times last season he broke off good runs and then didn't get used anymore.
• Jacob Smith: Clutch ability. FSU lost four games in a row by one score last year. If they can flip that, and not panic in the two-minute drill, they will have immense success.
• Brandon Foster: I want to see them turn the camp buzz into dependable production. Kromah has the size and explosiveness to be a difference-maker, while Singleton brings proven speed and big-play ability. The biggest step is becoming complete backs — running decisively, protecting Daniels and contributing as receivers. If both can handle those responsibilities consistently, Florida State’s backfield becomes much deeper and more versatile.

FSU has several talented freshmen

Question: Which true freshman do you think will have the biggest impact on the team?

• JD McCarthy: Jasen Lopez is already pushing to be the starting slot receiver, and I expect him to win the job by the end of the season. He also looks to be a dangerous punt returner, something FSU has missed.
• Matthew Lenix: Jasen Lopez. I think he's a star in the making.
• Jacob Smith: Chuck Kennon. I've said it before, I think he can be the next Derwin James.
• Brandon Foster: There are several intriguing options, including Devin Carter, but I think Izayia Williams has the physical profile to contribute immediately. He’s already 6-foot-2 and 226 pounds, and was a consensus four-star prospect. The biggest thing for a freshman linebacker is earning enough trust to play within the structure of the defense. If Williams can do that, his athleticism gives him a chance to find snaps defensively while also becoming a factor on special teams.

It starts in the trenches

Question: How confident are you in the new offensive and defensive lines?

• JD McCarthy: Herb Hand has earned the benefit of the doubt in assembling an offensive line, even if I don't like that it will be five new starters. The defensive line has potential, but lacks proven players that has me worried about what happens if someone gets hurt or fails to take the next step.
• Matthew Lenix: I'm confident in both. The offensive line has a ton of experience, and the defensive line will be one of the best groups on the team.
• Jacob Smith: Moderately confident. I like the re-energized offensive line, and I think that it could gel together in ways we haven't seen since 2023. The defensive line is still very good with the likes of Kevin Wynn and company.
• Brandon Foster: I’m more confident in the offensive line than I was entering last season, but I’m not ready to declare either unit a finished product. Norvell has repeatedly emphasized that the group is in a better place than it was a year ago. What I need to see is that progress hold up once FSU faces elite defensive fronts.Defensively, I love the upside. There is young talent, size and athleticism, but potential and consistent production are different things. I want to see FSU create havoc with four rushers and become much harder to run against. If both lines are genuinely improved, the ceiling of this entire team changes.

Can FSU start the season with a win?

Question: Who wins the game and why?

• JD McCarthy:FSU 45, NMSU 10: The Seminoles are looking to start the season with a win before their schedule gets tough. Between Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy, and a strong group of running backs, the offense will be too much for the Aggies to contain. The defense will shut down their offense, allowing them to start the season with a blowout victory.
• Matthew Lenix:FSU: 45, NMSU 10. I think FSU will come out and handle business with a very tough opponent like SMU coming up in Week 1.
• Jacob Smith:FSU 56, NMSU 13. They will allow a few points here and there, and anything more is going to be unacceptable. This won't be a Jacksonville State.
• Brandon Foster:FSU 45, NMSU 10. This is exactly the type of opener where Florida State needs to look like the clearly superior team from the beginning. I expect FSU to lean on the running game early, give Daniels some easy completions, and gradually create explosive plays as New Mexico State begins committing more bodies toward the box. Defensively, the talent discrepancy should allow the Seminoles to control the line of scrimmage.

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This article originally appeared on FSU Wire: Florida State vs New Mexico State: FSU Wire staff predictions