Four Michigan State vs. Toledo Bets I’m Hammering Friday

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Spartan fans are officially just one sleep away from seeing their favorite program play real football again.

Today marks the 278th day since we last saw Michigan State storm onto the field, when the Spartans earned their first and only conference win of last season.

Tomorrow, that counter finally resets to zero.

Michigan State will open the Pat Fitzgerald era at home Friday night against the Toledo Rockets at 8 p.m. EST inside Spartan Stadium. While the excitement surrounding the matchup is undeniable, there could be another factor to keep an eye on: the weather.

The forecast for East Lansing currently calls for rain throughout the morning and early afternoon before the worst of it moves through the area. However, there is still a chance of another storm rolling through around kickoff.

If the rain does return, the field could be slick early in the game. Combine that with both programs implementing new offensive schemes, and I’m taking a slightly more conservative approach with Friday night’s prop bets.

Here are my favorite bets for Michigan State vs. Toledo.

Cam Edwards Anytime Touchdown (-240)

If you read my bold predictions, you already know I’m extremely high on Cam Edwards this season — and especially in this matchup.

I predicted Edwards to score two touchdowns Friday night, a prop that currently sits at +200. However, rather than chasing that number, I’m going to play it a little safer and take Edwards to find the end zone at least once.

If the rain becomes a factor, I expect Michigan State to lean heavily on its rushing attack and try to establish its physicality at the line of scrimmage.

One of the biggest advantages Big Ten programs typically have over MAC opponents is the size and physicality of the players up front. I expect the Spartans to take advantage of that throughout this game, and Edwards should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

A two-touchdown performance would not surprise me at all, but I’ll gladly take the safer anytime touchdown prop.

Pick: Cam Edwards anytime touchdown (-240)

Cam Edwards Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The same reasoning behind Edwards finding the end zone applies here.

If the weather becomes messy and Michigan State wants to establish its new bully-ball identity, expect the Spartans to run the football — and run it often.

I believe Michigan State’s revamped offensive line has the talent to control the Rockets' front seven, giving Edwards plenty of opportunities to make an immediate statement.

This feels like the type of game where Michigan State could lean on its ground game from start to finish, and Edwards should be at the center of it.

I’m comfortable taking the over at 74.5 rushing yards. In fact, I wouldn’t be too upset with anyone who wants to push this into the 100-plus-yard range at +240.

Pick: Cam Edwards over 74.5 rushing yards (-110)

First-Half Total Points Under 23.5 (-115)

This is where the weather and the new offensive schemes come into play.

With both teams breaking in new systems, I expect the opening half to be somewhat conservative. Neither offense will necessarily want to put too much on the table immediately, especially if the field is wet.

That could lead to a more old-school style of football early, with both teams establishing the run before attempting to open things up with bigger plays later.

If that happens, I could see the first half producing more punts and field-goal opportunities than touchdowns.

I like the under 23.5 points for the first half at -115.

Pick: First-half total points under 23.5 (-115)

Michigan State Moneyline (-425)

The Spartans are certainly no guarantee to win this game, but I still like Michigan State to get the job done in Fitzgerald’s home debut.

Toledo is the preseason favorite in the MAC and brings a very good football team into East Lansing. This is not a matchup Michigan State should overlook.

That said, there is something different surrounding this program heading into the 2026 season.

With Fitzgerald now running the ship, I expect Michigan State to come out with plenty of energy in its first game at Spartan Stadium. The Spartans should have the size advantage up front, and I expect that physicality to eventually wear down Toledo.

I’m not willing to call Michigan State a lock, but I do believe Fitzgerald will avoid losing his home opener in his first season in East Lansing.

Pick: Michigan State moneyline (-425)

Overall

If you parlay all four of these plays together, you’ll get a combined payout of more than +400, which could also make the slip eligible for many of the profit boosts offered by sportsbooks.

The weather adds an interesting wrinkle to Friday night, but I still believe Michigan State has the talent and physicality to control this game.

Now, we wait.

Friday night can’t get here soon enough.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos