FPI Projects Virginia Tech vs. Clemson, Updates Hokies' Win Total

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Oct 17, 2026; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech head coach James Franklin shakes the hand of a Georgia Tech player. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia Tech football looks to claim its second straight win when it travels to Clemson, S.C., to play Clemson on Oct. 24.

The Hokies (5-2, 2-2 ACC) opened the season with four straight wins for the first time since 2017, subsequently losing back-to-back games to Pitt and Cal by 35-33 and 25-20 margins, respectively.

Here's a game-by-game look at what ESPN's Football Power Index projects for the rest of Virginia Tech's 2026 schedule, including how each opponent fared in its most recent contest.

Game 8: at Clemson (Oct. 24) – 44.1% win probability

Clemson (4-2, 2-1 ACC) returned to the win column Saturday with a 37-0 shutout victory over Charleston Southern, rebounding from its 41-13 loss to Miami on Oct. 3.

The Tigers dominated the Buccaneers defensively, allowing just 76 yards of total offense while recording 13 tackles for loss and holding Charleston Southern to an 0-for-11 mark on third-down conversions.

Offensively, Clemson accumulated 438 total yards, including 231 on the ground. Running back Chris Johnson Jr. recorded two rushing touchdowns, while Gideon Davidson added another.

Freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds threw for 127 yards, while kicker Nolan Hauser connected on three field goals, including a 59-yarder in the second quarter. Clemson led 34-0 at halftime before adding three points in the second half.

Game 9: at No. 24 SMU (Nov. 6) – 35.2% win probability

SMU (5-1, 3-1 ACC) extended its winning streak to three games Saturday with a 23-13 victory over Virginia, remaining undefeated at home against ACC opponents since joining the conference in 2024.

Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings completed 23 of 36 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns, while running back Kendrick Raphael rushed for 124 yards. SMU held a 16-13 advantage entering the fourth quarter before Jennings connected with Jalen Hale for a 37-yard touchdown, extending the Mustangs' lead to 10 points.

The Mustangs finished with 404 yards of offense, although their 23 points represented their lowest scoring output of the season. ESPN's projection for the Hokies' chances of defeating SMU, dipped 4.1 percentage points from last week's projection.

Game 10: vs. Stanford (Nov. 14) – 93.2% win probability

Stanford (3-4, 1-3 ACC) snapped a two-game losing streak Saturday with a 34-7 victory over Elon, following consecutive blowout losses to Wake Forest and Notre Dame.

Cardinal running back Micah Ford spearheaded the victory, recording four rushing touchdowns to tie the program's single-game record. Ford opened the scoring with a 1-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter before adding another from seven yards out later in the period.

Quarterback Davis Warren connected with Sedrick Irvin for a 27-yard touchdown in the third quarter, while Ford added a 5-yard score before breaking free for an 81-yard touchdown run in the fourth. Stanford's victory followed a 57-3 loss to Wake Forest and a 58-7 defeat against Notre Dame, games in which the Cardinal were outscored by a combined 115-10.

Game 11: at No. 3 Miami (Nov. 21) – 5.8% win probability

Miami (6-0, 4-0 ACC) maintained its undefeated record Saturday with a 43-35 double-overtime victory over in-state rival Florida State.

The Hurricanes needed a late offensive push to fend off the Seminoles, eventually securing the victory on a 3-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Darian Mensah to wide receiver Malachi Toney in the second overtime.

Toney subsequently connected with wideout Cooper Barkate on a two-point conversion, giving Miami an eight-point advantage.

Florida State's ensuing possession ended with a fourth-down interception by Bryce Fitzgerald, sealing the Hurricanes' sixth consecutive victory. Mensah completed 23 of 34 passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while Toney finished with 11 receptions for 154 yards. Running back Javian Mallory added 108 rushing yards.

Game 12: vs. Virginia (Nov. 28) – 57.6% win probability

Virginia (4-3, 2-2 ACC) suffered its third loss in five games Saturday, falling 23-13 to No. 24 SMU in Dallas.

The Cavaliers remained within striking distance throughout much of the contest, trailing 16-13 after kicker Will Bettridge connected on a 43-yard field goal late in the third quarter. Virginia's offense, however, struggled to generate production in the second half, allowing SMU to pull away with a fourth-quarter touchdown.

Quarterback Beau Pribula completed 13 of 22 passes for 137 yards while adding a rushing touchdown. The Cavaliers' defense pressured Jennings throughout the contest but managed just one sack. The loss dropped Virginia to 0-3 away from home this season, with the Cavaliers having previously lost to West Virginia and Florida State.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/virginiatech as FPI Projects Virginia Tech vs. Clemson, Updates Hokies' Win Total.

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