FRESH OFF A WIN AGAINST BOISE STATE, THE AZTECS CLOSE OUT THEIR HOMESTAND AGAINST SAN JOSE STATE ON SATURDAY.

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AZTEC DEFENSE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. WILL FACE OFF AGAINST A HOT AND COLD SPARTAN TEAM.

The Spartans suffered one of the most devastating losses in recent memory, losing 55-10 against doormat Nevada. In light of the loss, San Jose State has relieved Associate Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator Derrick Odom and Special Teams Coach Joe Palcic from their duties the rest of the season. 

GAME INFO:

Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California

Date/Time: Saturday, November 22, 7:30 (Pacific Time)

Television: Fox Sports 1 

Streaming: 

Radio: San Diego Sports 760

Betting Line: The Aztecs (8-2, 5-1 MWC) continue their home stand on the verge of a regular season Conference championship. They host a slumping San Jose State (3-7, 2-4 MWC), fresh off a complete blow up loss, 55-10 against cellar dweller Nevada. IN a season that started with high hope and promise due to talent and a friendly schedule, the Spartans have found every possible way to lose. Most losses were close, one score games that were decided in the fourth quarter, until last weekend. Nevada turned turnovers into points and ran a world class offense against a hapless Spartan defense. This explains the change in coaching staff. The Aztecs are a 11.5 point favorite in a game that looks to be a fairly low scoring game. The over/under is 49.5 points which reflects an approximate 30-19 score in favor of the Aztecs. According to ESPN Analytics, The Aztecs have an 85.1% chance at an outright win. The Spartans average 26.5 points per game in conference play while giving up 35 points. They’ve gone from a high of 45 points against Hawaii to back to back losses against Air Force, scoring 16, and Nevada, scoring 10. With the Aztec defense dialing in scheme and coverage, they have game film of teams who have stopped the Spartans. Expect the Aztecs to gameplan stopping quarterback Walker Eget and wide out Danny Scudero. If they are successfully stopped, there goes much of the Spartans offense. The Spartans meanwhile, need to contain the run since the Aztecs might be short handed with receivers as Jordan Napier will probably be a game time decision. The Aztecs had negative passing yards early in the contest last week against Boise State before settling for 17 net yards. If they are needing to resort to throwing, that means the Spartans will have successfully throttled Lucky Sutton and company. That could make for an upset. Seeing the Spartan defense this season, that is not likely to happen. They will be utilizing inside linebacker coach Bojay Filimoeautu as the new defensive coordinator. The Aztecs found themselves in a similar situation after being humbled by Hawaii, but after a week off, they rebounded to handle Boise State. Will the Spartans be able to rebound and show off a new found defense to go along with awakened offense? Or will the Aztecs do what they’ve been doing all season, shutting down teams and their offense? I expect the latter to happen. The Spartans and Aztecs have played 47 times previously, with the Aztecs holding a 24-21-2 advantage. They first played back in 1935 with a San Jose 24-9 victory. The Spartans owned the Aztecs throughout the 40’s and 50’s but lately, San Diego State has controlled the win column, winning nine of the last eleven games. San Jose State last won in San Diego during the Covid year of 2020, winning 28-17. The series is one of the longest tenured one for either team and with the Aztecs leaving to the reformed Pac-12 next season, there are no immediate plans to continue or reschedule the series. With the Spartan coaching changes and the Aztecs Jordan Napier in question, what will be the end result? Can the Aztecs pull off yet another shutout? With all the noise around the game, I expect the Aztecs to continue to roll and expect them to pull off a 27-17 win over a still reeling Spartan squad. As a San Jose State alum, it would be nice to see an upstart upset, but until the team can rebound, the Aztecs have more to play for than the Spartans. 

THE OPPOSITION: SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS

Second year head coach Ken Niumatalolo approached this season cautiously optimistic. New and returning talent was present across all position groups. Add in a very favorable schedule and many pre-season picks had the Spartans sliding into a third position. Some others were a bit more hopeful with the Spartans playing in the Mountain West Championship game. Those expectations came crashing to the ground with a season opening loss to Central Michigan. The game showed the problems the kicking game would have, as place kicker Dennis Lynch missed two field goal attempts which would have won the game for them. The offense started slow, which has been a hot and cold scenario all season. After an expected loss at Texas, the Spartans won a nailbiter against FCS school Idaho. They then lost to Stanford after leading the entire game and then held on to beat upstart New Mexico. The Spartans would lose back to back road games at Wyoming and Utah State where they were leading until the last few minutes. Returning home, the Spartans were on the top of their game, beating Hawaii in an exciting 45-38 thriller. This was followed by two back offensive snoozers, losing to Air Force 26-16 and the aforementioned annihilation at Nevada which necessitated the coaching changes. After San Diego State, the Spartans return home to play long time rival Fresno State to end this season of so many missed opportunities. When the Spartans are clicking, they are exciting. Quarterback Walker Eget leads the conference with 3,015 yards passing on 228/385 completions/attempts with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has had six the last two games, which were a measure of frustration. Opponents have returned two interceptions for scores going the other way. With this being Egets last season, the Spartans might play a backup quarterback, with intentions on plans for next season. Looking like the best of those is freshman quarterback Tama Amisone. The 5’11” freshman from Hawaii has seen some game time, throwing for 89 yards, but also running for 76. Last week in a mop up role, he led the Spartans on a fourth quarter scoring drive, their only touchdown of the evening. On the receiving end of things, Sophomore transfer Danny Scudero has been mostly lights out. He has 72 receptions for 1,155 yards and 10 touchdowns. His ability to work to the open spot has helped him snag passes and use his blazing speed for yards after catch. The knock on him is when the other team double cover him, the offense has struggled to move. He also has had many dropped passes that have happened in the most inopportune times. At 5’9” Scudero can get lost in the secondary. Expect the Spartans game plan to find ways to get him the ball. His season highlight was four touchdowns against Wyoming in the first half. Complimenting Scudero are a pair of supporting cast members. Kyri Shoels, a 6’0” wideout has 55 catches for 727 yards and two scores. Leland Smith is a monster at 6’4” and 215 pounds. The Junior transfer from Purdue has made some amazing 50/50 deep balls. When Scudero cannot be found, Smith can usually be seen stalking the secondary, looking for the long ball. This trio, when on, are some of the best receiver groups in the country. The ground game has been a mixed bag. Leading rusher from last season, Floyd Chalk IV, decided to bail before his red shirt would have been used up and left the team. Jabari Bates, an exciting sparkplug, was injured and will miss the remainder of the season. Enter backups Lamar Radcliffe and Steve Chavez-Soto. Both are power runners who have accumulated over 300 yards each. Radcliffe has been prone to put the rock on the ground several times, but when he gets a head of speed, he’s tough to bring down. Chavez-Soto has been the unheralded pleasant surprise. He came into his first game against Utah State and performed admirably. The following week against Hawaii he amassed three touchdowns leading to a Spartan win. He’s been in tandem with Radcliffe since then and has tallied seven scores on the season. 

Defensively, the Spartans looked good on paper, but have struggled. Whether it was the 3-4 alignment or missed tackles, the Spartans rank near last in nearly all defensive categories. The secondary has singlehandedly given up leads and wins in five games. If the defense had been a bit better, the Spartans might be looking at an eight win season and bowl eligibility. Instead they are left with wondering how things could have gone south so fast. The Spartans are led by linebacker Jordan Pollard who is described as a violence delivering machine accounting for 77 tackles and 2.5 sacks. Jalen Bainer has added three picks to his 39 tackle total. All in all, the secondary has given up one big play after another. While talent seems to be there, focus and organization seems to be lacking. Finally, the kicking game could be described as nothing short of a cluster. While it has settled into a more manageable situation, several games were lost due to the ability to make kicks. The Spartans utilize two kickers for each hashmark on the field. Last week special teams gave up a 98 yard kickoff return for a score in the last minute of the game. Falling asleep at the wheel. It seems change was needed and Coach Ken has facilitated that with his coaching carousel. 

What will be the outcome of the game?

Aztec defense against San Jose State offense. Last week was the Boise State offense and the Aztecs were well up to the task. The Aztecs have been consistent and should score points. It remains to be seen if they will be on the ground or through the air. The Spartans are needing to avoid the early turnovers. They have had three interceptions in each of the first halves of the last two games. Eliminate those and it could be a close game. If not, expect the Aztecs to shut down the Spartans. A 27-17 outcome is what is to be expected, but if the Spartans pull this out, it will be a 24-21 upset. Don’t expect Coach Sean Lewis to settle for mediocrity. He has made it clear that the Aztecs will play tough for 60 minutes. Look for the defense to again carry the day. 

Around the Mountain West Conference

All Mountain West teams will be in action this weekend. Friday night will undoubtedly be the premier game with Hawaii travelling to UNLV. Both teams need to win to have a chance at the conference championship game. Nevada and Wyoming battle next. It will be  interesting to see if the Wolfpack can build upon their momentum from the week before. Next is New Mexico at Air Force with the Lobos looking for a win to keep the race close. Boise State hosts Colorado State in a game that doesn’t even look to be close. Next is Utah State travelling to Fresno State in their attempt to become bowl eligible. Again, both teams need to win. The Bulldogs for the conference championship and the Aggies to become bowl eligible. Finally the Aztecs and Spartans will square off at the same time. We could wind up having a six way tie for first place. After this weekend, it will be a bit more clear. The last game the Aztecs have is on the road at New Mexico. Regardless of the outcome of this week’s games, that game looks to be exciting. A test of offense against a dominant defense. With a chance of rain in the forecast this Saturday favoring the running game and defense, one can hope Aztec fans will show up, pretending it is an outdoor basketball game. 

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