Friday College Football Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Northwestern vs Penn State, Virginia Tech vs Pitt
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Friday Night Lights.
There’s something special about college football being played under the lights, and that’s exactly what we have with a four-game slate tonight.
From Northwestern vs. Penn State in the Big Ten to Idaho vs. Montana State in the FCS, we have you covered with picks and analysis for each game.
With so much action to get to, let’s take a look at our Friday college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the games on Friday, Oct. 2.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Friday College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
By RoadToCFB
A season ago, Pittsburgh went 7-1 against teams outside the final top 40 in SP+, winning by an average margin of 41.3-20.3. Against teams inside the final top 40, Pitt went 1-4 and was outscored 32-21.6.
To begin 2026, Pitt is 2-0 against non-power conference teams, winning by an average score of 59-7; it’s 2-0 against power-conference teams, winning by an average score of 19.5-10.
Granted, the Panthers’ 12-7 win over UCF was riddled with rain delays and general field slop (and rain impacted its game against Syracuse), it’s pretty clear Pitt continues to tear through lesser opponents and play markedly different against teams more equal in talent.
The rest of the schedule is against an ACC slate, meaning we’ll get a pretty good idea of who Pitt is by Halloween.
Injuries have also been to blame for sporadic offensive shortcomings.
QB Mason Heintschel continues to shine. His 1,191 yards passing ranks third in the ACC and his 10 graded big-time throws lead the league, but he’s had to operate without top running back Ja’Kyrian Turner (left Week 1 and hasn’t played since) and Malik Knight (missed the last two games).
Starting safety Cruce Brookins also missed last game. In Turner’s absence, freshman Damon Ferguson Jr. has stepped into the lead back role, rushing for 102 yards against Syracuse.
Under Pat Narduzzi, you know what you’re getting with Pittsburgh: a tough football team that rolls right over lesser competition but gets outplayed and out-coached by the big boys on the schedule.
On Friday night, Pitt gets its first “big boy” in Virginia Tech.
Box score watchers might be quick to jump to Virginia Tech‘s 21-14 win over hapless Boston College and point fingers at James Franklin.
Keep in mind, that game was played in the middle of a nor’easter with wind gusts clocking in at over 40 miles per hour and driving rain soaking Alumni Stadium. Nobody could keep their footing. It was like toggling on Even Teams when playing EA College Football 27.
Many of the issues that plagued Franklin’s Penn State teams have shown up early in the season.
The fact of the matter is, Ethan Grunkemeyer isn’t a very good passer on the aggregate, though he’s able to make infrequent spectacular plays.
The Hokies are perfectly fine chunking their way down the field and trying to control the pace defensively to suffocate the opponent. It’s absolutely worked so far.
But unlike Franklin at Penn State, Virginia Tech has allowed its opponents to cover their tracks late in games. This season, Virginia Tech led Maryland 35-14 (final: 35-26) and Old Dominion 44-13 (final: 44-21). In State College, Franklin was notorious for covering spreads late if able to.
The Hokies field both an offense and defense inside the top 30 nationally in points per drive and thrive with a strong defensive front and exceptional secondary, even if neither unit has really been tested yet this year.
As a favorite, Franklin touts a 73-52-3 ATS record (58.4%) during his career, including a 3-1 mark this season (the one ATS loss coming last week).
Until 2025, the year it all fell apart at Penn State, Franklin hadn’t lost as a favorite since 2021 (-4 favorite at No. 12 Michigan State).
Both teams’ offenses look spectacular against outmatched opponents and not as great in driving rain (who would have guessed?). Both have benefitted from strong defensive line play, minimal turnovers or penalties and a pretty favorable schedule all around. Both coaches are veterans and both quarterbacks are flawed.
There’s a pretty even playing field here.
But Franklin is the more trustworthy coach despite a slipping public perception … for some reason.
At Penn State, his problem was not getting over the biggest contenders in the country, not losing to lesser opponents (Matt Campbell, looking at you). This is a situation where, at Penn State, Franklin has an excellent track record.
Here at home, that track record continues. Virginia Tech has the coaching edge, the home-field edge and a roster comparable, if not superior, to Pitt’s (and healthier).
The Hokies take this Friday night game at home in front of what should be a classic juiced Lane Stadium crowd.
Pick: Virginia Tech ML -172 (Play to -195)
| | | |
By Joshua Nunn
Liberty opened this season with a pair of rocky performances, as the Flames offense couldn’t get anything going against a stout James Madison defense. The team also played very poorly at home against FCS Gardner-Webb, winning by just a single point.
However, back-to-back impressive performances against Ball State and Coastal Carolina have given this bunch momentum heading into conference play, where the Flames have an opportunity to make a statement against Delaware on Friday night.
The Liberty offense has found its rhythm, racking up 945 combined yards the last two weeks, including its best rushing performance of the season last week on the road at Coastal Carolina.
Kam Davis and Peyton Jones are starting to look much more comfortable with the design of the ground attack, and the play-action pass game is freeing up Makai Jackson, who has caught a touchdown pass in every game this season.
Quarterback Deshawn Purdie also threw the ball really well, and I expect another strong offensive performance against Delaware this week.
The defense has really done a nice job disrupting the flow of its opponents’ offense while increasing the amount of pressure.
Over the last couple of seasons, the defense has been a serious liability for the Flames. This year, the defensive coaching has improved tremendously, and we’ve seen it play out in the second half of each game this season.
Liberty is allowing just 91 yards in the second half and has given up just 18 second-half points through four games.
Delaware looked to take another step forward after transitioning from FCS to FBS football last season and had more success than anticipated, going 7-6 with a bowl game victory over Louisiana.
Preseason expectations were high with the return of quarterback Nick Minicucci, and many felt the Blue Hens could be a sneaky contender in CUSA this season.
With a 2-2 start, those goals are still attainable, but Minicucci’s health is the major driver. With him sidelined for some time, someone needs to step up and take control at the quarterback position.
The Delaware offense is built around Minicucci. He’s a game-changing quarterback who can make all the tough throws while displaying the poise in the pocket necessary to lead scoring drives.
Backup QB Braden Streeter struggled badly last week after being thrown into action against Virginia, completing just 2-of-16 passes for nine yards with two interceptions.
Third-string QB Riley Trujillo was also called into action, but neither quarterback will be as effective as Minicucci, so the Delaware offense has to find creative ways to move the ball against the Flames on Friday night.
The Hens’ run game has struggled this season, ranking toward the bottom of FBS in Rushing Success Rate and explosiveness.
Jo Silver is the feature back, and he’s averaging just 51 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry.
Sean Wilson and Da’wain Lofton are the primary receivers who have combined for 550 receiving yards, but they’re expected to be less effective with a backup quarterback leading the offense this week.
Delaware’s defense has improved this season, specifically against the run. The Hens are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry, but they’re dealing with some injuries on defense and come into this one banged up.
The coverage unit has struggled with allowing explosive pass plays, which could be a problem against Liberty. The Flames excel in finding the downfield receiver in the passing game and should rack up explosives here.
Delaware played its worst defensive game of the season last year against Liberty, allowing 59 points on 8.8 yards per play, and the defense could struggle this time around as well.
This line opened with Liberty listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5. Liberty has taken some money in the market, pushing this line to -7 in favor of the Flames. I like Liberty to win this game and cover the posted number.
Delaware was a mess without Minicucci in the fold against Virginia and now has to rely on Streeter or Trujilo to lead the offense.
This unit isn’t going to experience the downfield passing success necessary to find scoring chances, and the Hens offense isn’t successful enough to move the ball methodically.
Only 38% of Delaware’s offensive snaps have been deemed successful plays, ranking 115th nationally. Without the pass explosives, this offense has to rely on the ground game, which isn’t efficient enough.
Delaware has converted just 33% of its third-down attempts, and the efficiency still wasn’t there with Minicucci on the field. I expect a big drop-off with a backup quarterback leading the offense.
The Liberty ground attack is starting to really find success, and I expect some ground explosives for the Flames. Jones and Davis continue to develop in the system, and Liberty’s quarterback play has also improved weekly.
Delaware has struggled when it comes to surrendering explosive plays, so I expect Liberty to score a lot of points in this game.
The Flames had their best offensive performance of the season last year against Delaware, and we should see a fully locked-in bunch on the road in the conference opener.
The Hens aren’t talented enough to keep pace offensively, and the defense struggles to defend this rushing scheme. Look for Liberty to win this game and cover the number on Friday night.
Pick: Liberty -7
| | | |
Head coach Matt Campbell had one of the easiest schedules for the Nittany Lions heading into Week 4. A devastating loss to Wisconsin saw a 17-7 halftime lead evaporate after producing just a field goal in the second half.
The Badgers dominated in overall yards per play, outgaining the Nittany Lions by nearly two yards per play.
The loss of star wide receiver Koby Howard left quarterback Rocco Becht without answers in the passing game. Penn State generated a low 23% Success Rate on 31 passing attempts, completing just one pass over 20 yards.
Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has produced one of the best units in FBS against the pass, producing the top overall coverage grade, per PFF.
The Nittany Lions held the Badgers to just 36% of available yards and a 30% Success Rate on passing downs, both under the national average.
Limiting methodical drives has been the calling card for the defense, although teams with explosiveness on the ground have created issues for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has allowed five different rushing gains over 50 yards this season.
A surprising cover against Indiana could be linked to execution in the passing game.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles continues to learn Chip Kelly’s offensive requirements, connecting on 22-of-29 passing attempts for two touchdowns.
Northwestern converted half of its third- and fourth-down attempts with an average distance to go of 9.9 yards against the Hoosiers.
Slot receiver Luke Dehnicke doubled his season target share as a home-run hitter in the passing game, while Chiles’ safety blanket in the red zone came in the form of wideout Griffin Wilde.
Head coach David Braun has plenty of work to do regarding the defense. The Wildcats rank dead last in producing a pass rush and sit bottom-10 in Line Yards.
Northwestern elects to play quarters zone coverage, giving up the middle of the field and opting to make stops in scoring position. Opponents have marched up and down the field, but Northwestern ranks 17th in Defensive Finishing Drives thanks to 19 opponent drives crossing the 40-yard line with an average of 2.4 points per trip.
The Wildcats have allowed the third-fewest red-zone touchdowns with four on the season.
The star of the game might not be either team, but rather the grand opening of Ryan Field in Chicago. There are significant changes in the elements of Northwestern home games, as the playing surface has been lowered to 21 feet below ground level.
Many media tours of the stadium noted that with wind gusts at 20 MPH in Evanston, but the wind wasn’t a factor from field level. Similar to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, the roof and open outer perimeter allow the wrinkles of gusts to smooth out before hitting the field.
From an investment perspective, totals should be treated differently for Northwestern home games with a slight upward trajectory in scoring.
The biggest question comes in Northwestern’s ability to create explosive rushes against Penn State’s defense. The Wildcats have notched only one rush that exceeded 30 yards this season, signaling that Chiles’ mobility in the passing game will be the plan of attack.
Lynn’s defense lines up in Cover 3 and Cover 1 zone, both of which Chiles has dominated this season. Northwestern has a 56% Success Rate on 90 offensive snaps against those coverages, averaging a big play on 21% of attempts.
Penn State will counter with a successful rushing attack behind James Peoples, Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin Jr.
Campbell’s offense has logged more than 80 rushing attempts using inside and outside zone read, a run concept Northwestern has severely struggled to defend. The Wildcats own a low 41% Success Rate against zone read, a number that drops to 35% against Campbell’s base personnel of 12.
Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Penn State to be favored by a field goal, aligning with the current market offering. A projected total of 48.5 shows there’s a small advantage against a sinking number of 45.
Penn State will have an advantage on the ground with 12 personnel and zone read, while Chiles and Northwestern will look to expose a Nittany Lions defense that has given up numerous explosive runs.
Look for both teams to create methodical drives and enough scoring opportunities.
Pick: Over 45.5
| | | |
By Joshua Nunn
Montana State continues to impress and remains atop the Big Sky standings, but this week, the team will take on a different look with much of its offensive star power sidelined due to injury.
The Bobcats found a way to grind out a 28-14 win over Northern Arizona in a game that was tied at the half. NAU had four red-zone trips (three of them goal-to-go situations) that resulted in zero points, so Montana State was seriously threatened on homecoming against the feisty Lumberjacks.
Quarterback Justin Lamson missed the game last week, giving Patrick Duchien his first career start as a Bobcat. The senior, who had only ever played sparingly in blowouts, was efficient, completing 16-of-20 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown.
Duchien showed good chemistry with receiver Carter Dahlke, who hauled in seven passes for 117 yards. He’s taking command of the playmaking left behind by Taco Dowler, who’s also out with an injury and will miss this contest.
Adam Jones has been such an electrifying player at the running back position, but Jones also missed the game against NAU and will be out this week as well.
Colson Coon was called upon and stepped up at running back, rushing for 199 yards while showing good vision to hit the hole hard and gain yards after first contact.
The star power isn’t there right now, but this offense still performed. Now, the task will be to take this operation on the road against an 0-4 Idaho team that’s starved for a win — and has been close many times this season.
The Bobcat defense continues to battle several injuries, and 5-6 key contributors will be out for this matchup.
Montana State has been without defensive back Caden Dowler for several weeks, and linebacker Bryce Grebe and defensive end Dominic Solano have also missed time.
The defense hasn’t been the lockdown, iron-clad defensive unit we’ve become accustomed to seeing in Bozeman. The result has been closer-than-expected games that were tightly contested into the fourth quarter against NAU, a Big Sky opponent, and more surprisingly, Central Connecticut State the week before.
Idaho is well rested and will be able to move the football here on this defense.
The Vandals are starved for a win, and the team has been close on several occasions this season. Each of its first three games involving FCS competition have resulted in losses, with each game decided by six points or less.
The offense has been plagued by turnovers in key moments and failed situational execution, but the Vandals are coming off the bye week, so we should see the best effort of the season out of this bunch at home on Friday night.
Quarterback Joshua Wood gives this offense a chance to move the football on every drive with his ability to create on the move and deliver the football downfield.
Wood has thrown for 1,005 yards this season, and his offense should find success here against a banged-up Bobcats secondary.
Tony Harste and Ryan Jezioro serve as the primary receiving targets, but tight end Noah West-Baranco has also been more involved as a receiver and should factor into the game plan.
The ground game hasn’t been successful this season outside of Wood, who leads the team with 170 yards and six rushing scores. The team rushing average is just 3.2 yards per carry, and while a handful of backs have split carries, this is a position where someone needs to step up and emerge as a leader.
Idaho’s defense has undergone some transition and struggled, allowing 461 yards and 42 points per game. Stopping the run has been a problem, as the Vandals are giving up 237 yards per game and 5.7 yards per rush.
However, the front has played better each of the last two weeks against Lamar and Abilene Christian prior to the bye week.
Idaho has been better at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, as the front has registered five sacks over the last couple of weeks.
This line opened with Montana State listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total set at 58.5. Montana State has taken some money in the market, pushing this line out to 16.5. I’m willing to take Idaho +16.5 in this situation.
The Vandals have been very close this season in all three of their FCS games, losing all three by just one score. The offense has playmakers at the receiver position who will have opportunities to win one-on-one battles against Montana State.
This Montana State secondary has given up some big plays through the air, and both NAU and CCSU found ways to throw the ball on this defense. I expect Idaho to have a game plan put together to take and connect on some deep shots.
Wood will have time to assess the defense and let plays develop in this game. Montana State recorded four sacks against Central Connecticut State, but that’s the only game since the opener in which the Bobcats have registered more than one sack.
Wood has an elusive nature to his play where he can wiggle out of trouble, and his mobility will create problems for this Bobcat defense.
Idaho is coming off a bye week and in a real spot to try to salvage its season after starting 0-4 with three close losses. Montana State is on a short week off a homecoming win against Northern Arizona.
But the Bobs are without their starting quarterback, running back, receiver/return specialist and several defensive starters, and now must go on the road to a place where they’ve historically struggled.
This is going to be a fun one on Friday night, and I think we’ll see Idaho in another close game. Montana State will win this game, but the Vandals should compete at home.
Pick: Idaho +16.5
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos