From QB to CFP, my Illini predictions

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Jan. 3—CHAMPAIGN — Two years, 19 wins.

Illinois football at the moment is in its happiest place ever. But not quite where it someday hopes to go: specifically, the College Football Playoff.

Less than three hours from Champaign-Urbana, the folks in Bloomington are celebrating the most remarkable rise in college football history. Indiana is two wins away from its first football national title.

You can't blame Illinois fans for asking, "Why isn't that us?"

Indiana made a remarkable/brave choice two years ago, turning its program over to a guy who had never been a head coach in the Power Four: Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers struck gold, or at least the coaching version of the precious metal.

Now, everyone wants to be the next Indiana.

Can Illinois get there is 2026? Here are 10 questions that will help provide the answer:

1. Who is playing quarterback?

My, Luke Altmyer left huge shoes to fill, finishing as one of the best to ever play the position in C-U.

We know he won't be replaced by Trey Petty, who is also from Starkville, Miss. Petty entered the transfer portal.

Former Northern Illinois quarterback Ethan Hampton is still on the roster. He is likely to be the backup in 2026. The name that keeps appearing is Harvard quarterback Jaden Craig. A move from FCS to the Big Ten has become common and Craig has strong credentials. Illinois coach Bret Bielema has a good track record with transfer quarterbacks.

2. Can Illinois sneak into the CFP in 2026?

A year ago, I told anyone who would listen that Illinois would make it, predicting a 10-2 regular-season record. I was two games off with losses to Washington and Wisconsin dooming Illinois' hopes.

The schedule is rugged with 2025 CFP teams Oregon and Ohio State, ACC champion Duke and nine-win Iowa. But Illinois plays only six 2025 bowl teams, so that is positive. Ten wins seems to be the cutoff for the CFP and getting there will be a stretch for a team with a new starting quarterback and plenty of holes to fill on both sides of the ball.

3. If not the CFP, what bowl should fans plan to attend?

This might not make much sense, but all of them. Let me explain.

As of the final bowls this cycle, all conference affiliations end. They are all starting over fresh. Expect a bunch of deals to be announced in the coming months and look for the Big Ten to try to stick with the popular Citrus, ReliaQuest and Las Vegas Bowls. Or maybe not.

Nearby games in Memphis might be appealing and the the Big Ten has had good luck in the past with the Sun, Alamo and Holiday bowls.

The Big Ten will make sure to have enough landing spots for its teams on the Left Coast.

4. Is offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. staying?

For 2026, it seems likely. But he won't be in C-U forever. In four years, Lunney has helped Illinois to three bowl games and developed one of the best quarterbacks, Altmyer, in school history.

Certainly, other schools have noticed Lunney's ability. And he will get high marks for how he deals with his bosses, fans and the media. Lunney wants to become a head coach, but because he likes his current setup, where he is well-compensated, there is no rush to move on.

Getting a Power Four head coaching job would be ideal, but he might need to take a Group of Five job first. The right right one. His boss knows the college landscape well and will be able to offer good advice.

5. How about defensive coordinator Aaron Henry?

The team's plan and execution against Tennessee was top notch. Fan complaints about Henry on social media don't bother him or change the way he conducts his business. That is the right approach.

Henry is likely to get a chance to run his own team. Again, like Lunney, there is no rush. Jumping at the first offer is not always the right choice. If he listens to his boss in Bielema, Henry will have a good chance for success at the next stop.

Remember, his team played well in the bowl despite missing two of its top players: outside linebacker Gabe Jacas and defensive back Matthew Bailey.

6. What positions are must-targets in the transfer portal?

The offensive line, which lost two longtime starters, would have been at the top of list. Until linebackers Malachi Hood and Jojo Hayden decided to move on. Captain Dylan Rosiek is also out of eligibility and Jacas is going to the NFL, meaning the second, third, fifth and sixth most productive tacklers won't be back.

7. Will Illinois have a 1,000-yard rusher in 2026?

Doubt it. Any of the top three returnees — Ca'Lil Valentine, Kaden Feagin and Aidan Laughery are capable of a Chase Brown-type season. If given enough carries. But the rotation mostly worked for the offense in 2025 and it would seem unwise to change it. As long as the players are all happy with their roles. Laughery and Valentine were strong in the Music City Bowl and would be the best bet for a heavy workload. Maybe in 2027 for Valentine.

8. Who replaces Hank Beatty?

Too bad it can't be Beatty, who would be way more valuable to the team — and help his future — had he played in 2026 and not 2022. He caught seven passes for 25 yards as a rookie.

Hudson Clement and Collin Dixon finished second third behind Beatty with 36 and 35 catches, respectively. They are going to see more passes come their way.

9. Which portal entry hurts the team the most?

The guy who made the final play of the season: kicker David Olano. His boot on the last play in Nashville set off a wild celebration. Less than a week later, he is in the portal.

The Illinois native hit 17 of 20 field goals during the regular season. There was no chance he would miss the winner against the Vols. Hard to imagine a better ending to the Illinois portion of his career. Somebody is going to land Mr. Steady.

10. What's the best home game?

Easy, it's against CFP semifinalist Oregon, which visits the House of Grange at a date to be announced later. No matter who leaves Eugene early — and there will be a bunch of guys — Dan Lanning is still bringing a loaded team to C-U.

It has been a minute since the Ducks were last here. Actually, more than 32 years since Oregon beat Lou Tepper's team 13-7. This will be just the fifth game between the schools all time. The lone Illinois win came in 1970, when Jim Valek was in charge.

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