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PASADENA, Calif. — Sure, it's a small sample size over a year and change in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, but it's a crazy weird stat none the less.

So far, the top four seeds that goes byes into the CFP quarterfinals are 0-6. Last year, No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Arizona State and No. 4 Boise State all lost their first game. We blamed it on the format, where conference champions were overly rewarded.

We thought that wouldn't happen in 2025, when the four best teams in the country got the top-four seeds and byes in the first round. But No. 2 Ohio State got beat by No. 10 Miami on Wednesday night and No. 4 Texas Tech got shut out 23-0 by No. 5 Oregon on Thursday afternoon.

That's 0-for-6. But let's keep this in mind, too. Of those six teams with byes, four of them were actually betting underdogs. Ony two actually lost as favorites, Georgia (1.5) last year against Notre Dame and Ohio State (9.5) on Wednesday night. Some could argue, like me, that the Buckeyes losing was really the only true upset.

Next up is No. 1 Indiana, who is taking on No. 9 seed Alabama on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET in the Rose Bowl. Can the Hoosiers, who are seven-point favorites, break that curse?

Indiana has had 25 days off since beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Alabama won its first-round game, beating Oklahoma 34-24 in Norman on Dec. 19. They've had 12 days off themselves, but it seems like these first-round winners have momentum.

I'm thinking the streak ends here. Alabama has all the history, but Indiana has the better team in 2025.

Three things stand out to me that will give Indiana the edge.

1. Fernando Mendoza will have time to throw

Indiana's veteran offensive has been very good all year, and Alabama has struggled often to put pressure on the passer. I feel like Mendoza will have time to scan the field and find the open receiver. The Hoosiers receiving corps is healthy and ready to go. The Heisman Trophy winner is going to have a big day.

Mendoza has continued to get better all year, and he's built for this moment. He'll stay calm and won't force things. Alabama's defense is as healthy as its been in a few months, so they'll be a challenge. I just think Indiana is better

2. Indiana defense will make Alabama one-dimensional

Indiana has been great against the run all year, and it's a strength for sure. Alabama has struggled to run the ball, so this is a segment of the game that Indiana could completely dominate. If they can force Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson into third-and-long situations, they might be able to force some turnovers, or at least flip the field.

Alabama did gain a bit of confidence by playing well in the last three quarters of their win over Oklahoma, but they were awful for four quarters in the SEC Championship Game loss to Georgia and were down 17-0 at Oklahoma before coming back.

Indiana isn't giving up 34 points. That's just not happening.

3. No weather issues, so no fluke plays

It's been raining for two days here in Southern California, but it stopped about two hours before the game and the field is fine. 

So a level playing field will make this a clean game. No fluke plays with someone slipping and fall. Play it straight up and may the best team win.

I think that's Indiana. There's also a huge home-crowd advantage here, too. Indiana fans have flooded into the Rose Bowl.

The pick? I'm going with Indiana, 27-13. The Hoosiers are touchdown favorites for a reason.  

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