Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Prediction: Birmingham Bowl Preview
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College football’s postseason continues on Monday afternoon with a Sun Belt rivalry showdown between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State in the Birmingham Bowl. These two teams met previously in the 2025 season, with the Eagles winning 25-23 in the “Deeper Than Hate” rivalry on Nov. 6.
Due to a few teams opting out of the postseason, the Birmingham Bowl was forced to search for a replacement squad, with Appalachian State eventually answering the call for an opponent to Georgia Southern. Under new coach Dowell Loggains, the Mountaineers started 4-2 but finished 1-5 down the stretch to wrap up the regular season at 5-7.
Georgia Southern started the ‘25 season at 2-4 but rallied with a 4-2 record down the stretch to reach bowl eligibility at 6-6. The Eagles have played in a bowl in all four years of coach Clay Helton’s tenure, but the program is 0-3 in their three previous appearances during that stretch. All six of the team’s losses in ‘25 were against programs that qualified for a bowl, while Helton’s squad knocked off Conference USA champion Jacksonville State (41-34) and later defeated Marshall (24-19) in the final regular season game to reach six victories.
Appalachian State holds a 21-18-1 series edge over Georgia Southern. The Mountaineers are 7-1 in bowl appearances. The Eagles are 3-4 in bowl trips at the FBS level.
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Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Odds, Details
Location: Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala.
Kickoff: Monday, Dec. 29 at 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Georgia Southern -8.5
Over/Under: 59.5
Announcers: Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Alyssa Lang
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State: Keys to Victory
Why Georgia Southern Will Win The Birmingham Bowl
It’s no surprise Georgia Southern is favored by over a touchdown. The Eagles won the first meeting and are expected to have a roster largely at full strength against a shorthanded Appalachian State squad.
The strength of Helton’s ‘25 team is an offense averaging 27.8 points a contest behind quarterback JC French IV. The junior threw for 2,758 yards and 19 touchdowns, including 352 yards in the first meeting between these two teams. With Appalachian State ranking No. 79 nationally in pass efficiency defense and No. 121 in success rate against the pass, French and receivers Camden Brown (63 catches for 1,049 yards), Marcus Sanders (45 catches), and Dalen Cobb (52) should have ample opportunities to move the ball through the air.
Running back OJ Arnold (880 yards and 17 catches) missed the regular season finale due to injury but is listed as the starter on the depth chart for Monday’s game.
Georgia Southern’s defense has struggled this season and a change is on the way for ‘26. Helton dismissed coordinator Brandon Bailey at the end of the year, with Mike Mutz arriving from Stephen F. Austin to handle the role next fall. Darius Safford will handle the play-calling duties for Monday’s game. The Eagles gave up 34.2 points a contest and 6.5 yards a play in the regular season and massive improvement seems unlikely over the bowl practices. However, with Appalachian State dealing with a shorthanded offense, Safford’s group could have an easier time (425 total yards allowed) than it did in the first meeting.
Why Appalachian State Will Win The Birmingham Bowl
The element of surprise and revenge are on Appalachian State’s side on Monday. The Mountaineers should be motivated to knock off the Eagles after their loss earlier this season and bring a bowl trophy back to Boone, N.C. in the process.
Although motivation and revenge factors are working in Appalachian State’s favor, Loggains’ team must navigate some personnel challenges. JJ Kohl and AJ Swann – the team’s top two quarterbacks – opted to transfer. Assuming neither suits up in Birmingham, that leaves senior Billy Wiles and freshman Noah Gillon as the top options on Monday. Gillon completed 13 of 32 passes for 111 yards in limited work this year, while Wiles connected on six of seven attempts for 50 yards.
Whichever quarterback starts also faces uncertainty in the supporting cast. The status of leading receiver Jaden Barnes (55 catches) and rusher Rashod Dubinion (868 yards) is uncertain. Regardless of whichever signal-caller gets the nod, expect to see a heavy dose of running back Jaquari Lewis (563 yards) against a Georgia Southern front that allowed 220.7 rushing yards a contest.
Appalachian State’s defense allowed 6.1 yards per snap in Sun Belt games this season and could also be facing some turnover due to the portal. The Mountaineers forced 18 takeaways this year and will need to thrive in that department in Birmingham to give their shorthanded offense easy conversions.
Birmingham Bowl Prediction: Georgia Southern 34, Appalachian State 20
Beating a team twice in a season is challenging, but Georgia Southern should have the edge against a shorthanded Appalachian State squad. With French and the offensive firepower on the Eagles’ side, the Mountaineers won’t be able to keep pace in Birmingham. Expect a spirited effort from Loggains’ squad, but unless Georgia Southern turns in a sloppy effort, Helton’s team will head back to Statesboro with another rivalry win and a bowl trophy.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 29, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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