Group of Five CFP chaos: How USF’s loss to Navy shakes up playoff race

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Group of Five CFP chaos: How USF’s loss to Navy shakes up playoff race originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The second College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season, released on Tuesday night, provided the most recent glimpse into which Group of Five squad would make the bracket. As things stood, USF was the favorite. 

The Bulls sat at 7-2 entering Week 11, earning the No. 24 spot in the committee's rankings. That put USF into a projected first-round matchup with Georgia. Then, a few days passed — and already, there appears to be a wide-open position in the playoff for a Group of Five squad.

South Florida fell to Navy 41-38 on Saturday afternoon, with the Midshipmen totaling four touchdowns on the ground. The Bulls, now 7-3, will face a far more difficult route to a potential playoff spot, as their loss also opened things up for other top G5 programs.

Here's a look at how South Florida's Week 11 loss impacts the College Football Playoff race.

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Who will represent the Group of Five in CFP?

With just two weeks of regular season games left across college football, there is a fairly wide-open race in terms of which Group of Five team will make the bracket.

The rules for the bracket state that the five highest-ranked conference champions receive automatic bids to the playoff, plus the next seven highest-ranked schools. The four highest-ranked schools are seeded one-through-four and receive a first-round bye, while the fifth-highest-ranked champion and the rest of the teams earn seeds 5-12. If any of the five highest-ranked conference champions falls outside of the top 12 — which is extremely likely for the Group of Five champion — they will be seeded at the bottom of the 12-team pool.

In the first CFP rankings from the committee, Memphis was slotted in as the No. 12 seed and the hypothetical fifth-ranked conference champion. Then, the Tigers proceeded to lose to Tulane 38-32 in Week 10. In the second rankings, USF was ranked No. 24 and projected as the No. 12 seed, but the Bulls then fell to Navy on Saturday.

In an open race, a few teams still find themselves in the hunt to represent the Group of Five in the CFP.

MORE: CFP releases second set of rankings after Week 11

North Texas

South Florida's loss opened the door more for plenty of other teams to grab the Group of Five playoff bid in the last few weeks of the season. North Texas is one of them, looking for its first conference championship since 2004.

The Mean Green, in their second AAC season, haven't yet been ranked in the CFP rankings, but their lone loss came 63-36 to USF at home. North Texas sat at 8-1 entering a Week 12 matchup vs. UAB, with a resume of wins including a 59-10 win over Washington State, a 45-38 win over Army and a 35-17 win over Navy.

Entering Week 12, ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave North Texas a 30% chance to make the playoff. The Mean Green also have a favorable schedule, meaning they needed other teams to fall to have a playoff shot, which USF did Saturday.

Here's North Texas' schedule:

Tulane

The Green Wave entered Week 12 at 7-2 with a matchup against Florida Atlantic looming. Tulane is another G5 squad with a favorable remaining schedule, benefitting from USF's stumble; an upset of Memphis in Week 10 put the team back in the playoff race.

While Tulane fell to Ole Miss in Week 4 and later to UTSA, the Green Wave have also taken power conference squads in Northwestern and Duke.

Entering Week 12, ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave Tulane has a 13% chance to make the 12-team field. With USF's loss, that will increase, although the team's favorable remaining schedule will make it key to win out.

Here's Tulane's final three games:

MORE: Picks against the spread for Week 12's Top 25 games

James Madison

Over in the Sun Belt Conference, James Madison also still has a shot at the Group of Five playoff spot. The Dukes entered Week 12 with an 8-1 record, falling to Louisville in Week 2.

James Madison's lack of power conference wins will hold back its resume, but should the Dukes finish their regular season unbeaten, win the Sun Belt conference and see other G5 teams falter, they're right in the race to make the playoff.

Entering Week 12, ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave JMU a 35% chance to make the playoff, which could get a bump up thanks to USF's loss.

The fact that James Madison has just one loss, compared to almost all of the American Conference contenders having two, will work in its favor, for now.

Here's a look at the Dukes' remaining schedule:

Navy

Beating the only ranked G5 team should put Navy right back in the playoff race, with the squad sitting atop the American Conference for now. Losses to Notre Dame and North Texas are the marks on Navy's case, but beating USF was the crucial first step for the Midshipmen to have a playoff resume.

ESPN's playoff predictor gave four Group of Five teams a better chance than Navy to make the playoff entering Week 12, but USF was one of them. Expect to see the Midshipmen remain in the conversation to earn a CFP bid, especially if they can run the table with wins the rest of the season.

Here's a look at Navy's remaining schedule:

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Memphis

Despite Memphis falling in Week 10, the Tigers could still have a shot at the Group of Five playoff spot, especially considering their Week 12 date vs. Navy, who just took down the only G5 team to be ranked by the CFP committee so far.

The Tigers entered Week 12 at 8-2, losing to Tulane and UAB. They'll likely need some more help from Tulane, James Madison and more losing, but beating Navy would give Memphis a case, at the very least.

ESPN's playoff predictor gave four Group of Five teams (USF, James Madison, North Texas, Tulane) a better chance to make the CFP entering Week 12. Memphis' final game of the 2025 regular season will be against Navy.

Current American Athletic Conference Standings

The AAC is generally considered the strongest conference after the Power 4, so the winner of the AAC championship should have a good chance to reach the CFP this season.

Here are the current standings.

Which teams did USF's loss to Navy help most? 

Most directly, USF's loss opened the door for Navy and Tulane to make playoff pushes. The Midshipmen claiming a late-season win over the CFP committee's 24th-ranked team will give them some noise — with Navy's win, it now sits atop the American Conference with an 6-1 conference record, 8-2 overall.

In one win, Navy took down a direct opponent for its playoff spot, and got an upset victory that boosts its resume. If the Midshipmen can take down Memphis and win the AAC title game, they should have a solid chance of claiming the Group of Five's CFP spot, thanks to their win over USF. Navy's game against Army will be the week after the CFP Selection Show and will have no bearing on Navy's CFP hopes.

As for Tulane, the Green Wave were going to need a bit of help to make the playoff after falling to UTSA on Oct. 30. That's happened lately, as the squad has taken down one threat in Memphis, then saw USF fall in Week 12. As things stand, Tulane's biggest competitors to win the American Conference title are Navy and North Texas.

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Is USF out of the playoff?

In all likelihood, USF's loss on Saturday will remove the Bulls from playoff conversations. With three losses in 2025, they'd need quite a bit of help from other teams losing, while also finding a way to win the American Conference, for the committee to select them as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.

USF’s playoff chances fell from 46% to 2% with the loss, according to ESPN Analytics.

“Huge opportunity for our program, and we didn’t get it done,” USF Alex Golesh said after Saturday's loss, per the Tampa Bay Times. “We will be back in this spot as a program again."

If James Madison, Navy, Tulane and North Texas lose one or multiple games over the next few weeks, USF could still be alive, but don't count on the squad's playoff chances after falling in Week 12.

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