History Says Only These 3 Teams Can Win This Year's College Football Playoff

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History Says Only These 3 Teams Can Win This Year's College Football Playoff

With the second edition of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings officially out, a very fascinating statistic was unveiled by ESPN.

Since there wasn't that much chaos in Week 11, the CFP selection committee had Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama and Georgia still ranked in the top five. In terms of notable changes to the rankings, Texas Tech jumped up to No. 6 due to its dominant win over BYU. The committee also bumped Texas to No. 10 before its upcoming showdown with Georgia.

As of right now, the SEC has eight teams ranked inside the top 25. The Big Ten is in second with six teams.

"We don't look at conferences," CFP committee chair Mack Rhoades said. "We look at each of the teams. And I think for the ACC, when you look at their non-conference schedule, there really are no signature wins other than Miami vs. Notre Dame. And so when we're having that conversation, we do look. We look at schedule strength, record strength. That's certainly one of the metrics that come to play."

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin (10) prepares to put the ball in play during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025 in Madison, Wisconsin.

Who's a legit contender?

According to ESPN Insights, every national champion since the inaugural CFP in 2014 was ranked inside the top three when the second edition of the rankings came out.

If this trend continues this season, Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M would be the only real threats to win the national title.

While this doesn't eliminate teams like Alabama and Georgia from making a real run this winter, it's certainly a statistic that's worth monitoring.

ESPN's Football Power Index gives Ohio State a 26.7% chance of winning the national championship. No team has higher odds, but Indiana is close with a 22.5% chance of hoisting the trophy.

Ohio State and Indiana are on track to square off in the Big Ten Championship. As for the SEC, that race is much tighter at the moment.

We can't wait to see how the final month of the regular season plays out.

This story was originally reported by The Spun on Nov 12, 2025, where it first appeared in the News section. Add The Spun as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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